MOScout Daily Update: National Money Coming In? - Inflation in MoDOT’s Request - Meet Ignite Strategic - PowerRankings Update and more…
Owen’s October Surprise?
In the inaugural edition of Beers and Budget, House Budget Chair Bill Owen raised concerns that we could see a dip in net general revenue collections in October. The episode was taped over Veto Session in the middle of September.
“I get daily reports from Revenue, and so far they haven’t been bad. I think today we’re sitting at about 3.8% over last year, which is about $86 million to the good… In my mind, I have a couple key points throughout the year that I think could make a major difference—that could really drop our position from last year… this will be the first year we don’t have capital gains. My experience is a lot of people who have large capital gains file an extension. So we don’t know about it until October. So, to me, I’m worried about an October surprise…”
Yesterday’s Daily Revenue Report showed fiscal-year-to-date revenues have recently swooned and are now negative compared to 2025. Is this just a temporary dip due to some volatility in receipts, or is this the October surprise Owen feared? We’ll see…
Looking Through Budget Requests: MoDOT and DOR
Here are a few nuggets from MoDOT and DOR’s budget requests…
Department of Transportation
· Looking to roll over maturing debt payments. With the Focus on Bridges bonds being retired in FY2027, MoDOT requests to move that $45.55 million State Road Fund debt-service authority to back a new $208 million program to improve approximately 100 poor bridges. The request does not identify the 100 bridges or provide a bond-issuance schedule.
· MoDOT’s request shows the impact of inflation. The cost of fuel has increased an average of 19.4 percent from last year; the cost of asphalt has increased an average of 17.8 percent; and the cost of treated salt has increased by 5.4 percent.
Department of Revenue
· New incentives have administrative costs. DOR is requesting $5,728,748 General Revenue to implement the new Innovation Zone and expanded MODESA incentives in HB 3231/2531, plus railroad and critical-manufacturing credits in SB 913 and SB 1553.
· Not going after small fries. In FY2026, DOR removed IRS-based leads with estimated liability below $100 from its non-filer outreach. Notices fell from 163,214 in FY2025 to 52,746 in FY2026, a decline of 110,468, or 67.7%. Presumably this saves money by saving staff time.
Capitol Commission Slush Fund?
As I work through the budget requests, I keep coming back to one thought: the coming tight budget year will put more pressure on Governor Mike Kehoe and others to look to the Capitol Commission’s cash stash to make ends meet.
· According to the latest report from the State Treasurer, there’s $592 million in the Capitol Preservation Fund.
Meet Ignite Strategic Consulting
After decades of public service, former Sen. Jamilah Nasheed is hanging out a shingle with her firm Ignite Strategic Consulting.
We craft comprehensive government relations strategies that align with your organization’s broader goals. From identifying key decision-makers to mapping out a clear path for engagement, we ensure that every action taken is part of a larger, cohesive effort to influence policy and shape public opinion… If your organization needs help with community relations, fundraising, or public affairs strategy, we welcome the conversation.
No on A6
The PACs for Sens. Jamie Burger (Bootheel Values PAC) and Brad Hudson (BRAD PAC) each gave $10,000 to MO Protect PAC, which appears to be organized to help defeat Amendment 6.
MO Protect’s treasurer is Tom Estes, the chief of staff to Sen. Rick Brattin. As of its most recent filing, it had $1,061 cash on-hand.
· Both Burger and Hudson are running for leadership spots within the Senate Republican Caucus.
Meanwhile
Yesterday’s large contributions filings saw over $330,000 from labor organizations into the Yes on Amendment 6 campaign.
· $215,000 from Missouri and Kansas Laborers' District Council.
· $115,972 from Construction & General Laborers Local Union No. 264.
Vote Yes on 6 has raised over $3 million so far.
Updated House PowerRankings
I’ve updated my PowerRankings of House districts most likely to flip – expanding the list to 19. Find the rankings here.
· Three new additions, albeit toward the bottom of the list: House 38 (Marty Jacobs), House 104 (Terri Violet), and House 110 (Old Sparks seat).
National Money Coming In?
Two national Democratic legislative PACs registered in Missouri this week.
· DLCC PAC - Federal Committee.
· The PAC for America’s Future.
The DLCC already named 12 priority House contests and four Senate contests in Missouri. The PAC for America’s Future powers The States Project’s electoral operation, and The States Project now lists Missouri as a “Now Raising” state.
Lincoln Lawsuit
New York Times reports that “a group of current and former students at a historically Black university sued Missouri for nearly $549 million on Wednesday, arguing that the state spent decades illegally underfunding their school.”
The case, which centers on Lincoln University in Jefferson City, will test a 19th century federal law that envisioned equitable public financing for institutions that were created as havens for Black Americans in a segregated country. And the litigation comes as many historically Black colleges and universities struggle with enrollment, student retention and finances.
“The ramifications of the underfunding are very present today, and so just because it goes back some time doesn’t mean that we don’t have an obligation to fix it,” Don Calloway, a former Missouri legislator who is representing the plaintiffs in the case, said in an interview. “It is a very clear breach of the state’s statutory and contractual obligation.”
Help Wanted
The City of St. Louis Port Authority seeks Legislative and Government Relations Consulting Services. To execute its duties, the Authority engages with government actors at the state and federal levels. Accordingly, by issuance of this RFQ, the Authority seeks to create two (2) prequalified lists of firms that provide legislative and government relations services related to economic development issues for the Authority and the City of St. Louis, Missouri (“City”); one such list for services at the State level, and another for services at the Federal level.
Lobbyist Registrations
Matthew Thompson added Slalom Inc, and Blue Cloud Pediatric Surgery Centers.
$5K+ Contributions
Forward PAC (pro-Fogle) - $25,000 from MO Gaming PAC.
Conservative Leadership for Southeast Missouri (pro-Bean) - $8,000 from Charter Communications.
Stop the Ban (anti-A3) - $150,000 from Abortion Action Missouri Foundation.
Stop the Ban - $5,125 from Jackie Schirn.
Her Health, Her Future PAC - $20,000 from Mary Beth Rolwes.
Her Health, Her Future PAC - $10,000 from William Gueck.
MO Protect PAC (anti-A6) - $10,000 from Bootheel Values PAC.
MO Protect PAC - $10,000 from BRAD PAC.
Vote Yes on Amendment 6 - $215,000 from Missouri and Laborers' District Council.
Vote Yes on Amendment 6 - $115,972 from Construction & General Laborers Local Union No. 264.
Will of the People - $250,000 from Missouri Voter Project - State PAC.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $200,000 from Herzog Contracting Corp.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $50,000 from American Dream PAC.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $50,000 from GOPAC Election Fund - Federal PAC.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $50,000 from J & J Ventures Gaming LLC (Effingham, IL).
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $20,000 from Meta Platforms, Inc. (Menlo Park, CA).
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $20,000 from MADA Dealers Interested In Government.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $12,000 from Missouri Realtors PAC, Inc.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $10,000 from Putting People First PAC.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $10,000 from Evergy Metro, Inc.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $9,036 from Robinette for Missouri.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $5,001 from Forward With Farnan.
Missouri Democratic State Committee - $27,400 from EMPAC.
Missouri Democratic State Committee - $27,400 from DLCC PAC - Federal Committee.
Missouri Democratic State Committee - $12,250 from Steele for Missouri.
Missouri Democratic State Committee - $10,000 from Enterprise Holdings, Inc. / Enterprise Mobility PAC.
Missouri Democratic State Committee - $10,000 from Ironworkers Local 396 Voluntary Fund.
Missouri Democratic State Committee - $10,000 from Plasterers' & Cement Masons' & Shop Hands.
Missouri Democratic State Committee - $7,600 from Citizens for Claire Heinrich.
Missouri Democratic State Committee - $7,500 from Jamison for Missouri.
Missouri Democratic State Committee - $7,500 from Cat Clayton For Missouri.
Missouri Democratic State Committee - $6,000 from Kathy Steinhoff for the 45th.
Missouri Democratic State Committee - $6,000 from Thompson for 119.
Senate Democratic Campaign Committee - $25,000 from Homefront PAC.
Senate Democratic Campaign Committee - $25,000 from Heavy Construction Laborers Local Union #663 PAC.
Missouri Right to Life PAC - $25,000 from Kyle McCollom.
Citizens For Missouri Courts - $25,000 from Gray Ritter & Graham, P.C.
PULSE PAC - $15,000 from Rex Sinquefield.
DLCC PAC - Federal Committee - $27,500 from DLCC PAC (Washington, DC)
Missouri Raised PAC - $13,000 from US Canna Capital Missouri.
MALO PAC - $20,000 from CGB Holdings LLC.
Empowered PAC - $15,000 from MSCEW PAC Federal Committee.
Freedom Principle MO Missouri First PAC - $7,500 from Edon Smith.
Freedom Principle MO Missouri First PAC - $15,000 from Missouri Right to Life.
Progress Kansas City PAC - $10,000 from Ryan Gound.
Birthdays
Happy birthday to Emily Wright.