MOScout Weekender: Lincoln Day Bits - Exclusive Polling - New Senate Gaming Committee - Who Won the Week and more…
Lincoln Days Bits
I spent last night in Springfield taking in the annual Republican ritual known as Lincoln Days. Although it’s an election year, the absence of big statewide races seemed to dim the general intensity. Four ways this showed up…
Issues taking center stage
· There was a rally for Amendment 3 which would reverse the pro-choice constitutional amendment (Pro-lifers expect to be outspent but think they’re better organized than two years ago.)
· Congressman Bob Onder, addressing a happy hour crowd, said that “Missouri’s future hangs in the balance this year.” A seemingly baffling platitude considering the only statewide race is for auditor, until he explained he was referring to Amendment 3.
Gossip drifted to 2028
· One attendee wondered aloud if Governor Mike Kehoe, (who was not around, he was still in DC and is expected to arrive this morning) would run for a second term. And if we might see a state senator primary Lieutenant Governor David Wasinger.
· Neither suggestion was mentioned with the force of a good rumor. It was more that the absence of 2026 excitement was a void that needed to be filled.
Legislative attendance was largely regional
· I could have missed people, but I was surprised how few folks outside the region made the trek. The only legislative leader I saw was Floor Leader Alex Riley. I didn’t see any others (JP, Perkins, O’Laughlin, or Luetkemeyer). Notable exceptions: Rep. Jeff Myers, driving in from Warrenton, and Eddy Justice from way over in Poplar Bluff.
· The usual St. Louis rabble rousers were in the House: Tim Jones broadcasting live, at one point interviewing fellow former speaker Elijah Haahr (who emceed the dinner program), and The McCloskeys, of course.
Concern for turnout
· The one fear repeated over the evening was a concern about Republican turnout in November. President Donald Trump has been a huge vote magnet for Republicans. Without him on the ballot, and again, no big races, the expectation is that the math will look much different, especially in some legislative races.
If there was gossip it centered on CD-5…
· Sen. Rick Brattin is apparently IN. Oddly, I didn’t see him at the event. But one bigwig told me he’d been phoned by Brattin to alert him he was running. One consultant described the number of state reps endorsing Taylor Burks as “a big middle finger” to Brattin.
· Sen. Kurtis Gregory is OUT by everyone’s account despite any formal statement from him.
· Sean Smith, who announced recently, had the biggest presence: a table and on hand pressing flesh.
· One new name mentioned Brad Patty. He’s a veteran who would run in the “outsider lane.”
VLTs…
The announcement earlier in the day of the brand new Senate committee, the Select Committee on Gaming, produced a little gurgle of conversation. Pro Tem Cindy O’Laughlin, who’s made her disdain for gambling known via a Facebook post, will chair the committee herself. And one attendee said it looked like it was stacked with allies and legalization skeptics.
Schmitt Suite
Senator Eric Schmitt consistently makes Lincoln Days – an effort perhaps to stay in touch with the grassroots. It pays off. His hospitality suite is always one of the most popular, packed with crowd. One refrain has been how well his alumni are doing, in terms of Trump appointments.
It’s an achievement recently noted by the Post-Dispatch’s Joe Holleman: “[Justin] Smith would become the 10th lawyer who worked under Schmitt to serve in the federal legal system… four other former Schmitt staffers in Jefferson City were confirmed as federal district judges: Zach Bluestone, Josh Divine, Maria Lanahan and Cristian Stevens. Along with [John] Sauer, four other former lawyers on Schmitt's attorney general staff also now work for the Department of Justice: Tom Albus, U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District in St. Louis; Michael Talent, assistant solicitor general; Rachel Jag, an associate deputy attorney general; and Jesus Osete, an assistant attorney in the department's civil rights division.”
Remington/MOScout Poll
Survey conducted February 18 through February 19, 2026. 705 likely 2026 Republican Primary Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2026 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.7% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. See the full results here.
Q1: Do you support Governor Mike Kehoe’s plan to phase out the state income tax?
Yes, I support it: 71%
No, I don’t support it: 13%
Not sure: 16%
Q2: Do you support “open enrollment” in Missouri that would let public school students attend a different district than the one they live in.
Yes, I support it: 52%
No, I don’t support it: 27%
Not sure: 21%
Q3: Generally speaking, when you hear about data center developments do you consider it a good thing or a bad thing?
Generally, a good thing: 26%
Generally, a bad thing: 32%
Not sure: 42%
Q4: Generally speaking, how do you view the Chiefs’ decision to leave Missouri and relocate in Kansas?
It’s bad for Missouri: 62%
It’s not a big deal: 28%
Not sure: 10%
Q5: Thinking about the different types of Republicans, which type of Republican do you consider yourself to be?
Trump Republican: 37%
Evangelical Republican: 25%
Traditional Republican: 25%
Libertarian Republican: 5%
Something else: 8%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Dem Wave?
I asked lobbyists, “What are the chances of a "Dem wave" in the 2026 midterms?” 17 replies… (Result from 4 months ago October 2025 in parenthesis).
RESULTS
1. Very likely… 35.3% (9.1%)
2. Somewhat likely… 17.6% (31.8%)
3. Somewhat unlikely… 29.4% (40.9%)
4. Very unlikely… 17.6% (18.2%)
Sample of Comments
· In Missouri? Meh. Maybe a couple Dem ripples. Perhaps a splash. But not a wave.
· Evergreen question for what the last 4, 5 cycles???
· What is a “wave”. I see it as bigger gains than in the past, so a 1 seat pick up in the senate or two in the House. Therefore I vote for 1/2 a wave.
· In districts most likely to flip, MO Republicans have high quality candidates. Dems may win a House seat or two, but they are going to lose the Dean seat.
· Nationally yes but not much in MO
· If the question was in the US I would say the wave is very likely, but Missouri seems to be on incredibly high ground for D’s. It’s almost impossible to understand how D’s can’t pick up a dozen House seats and two Senate seats on issues like corruption (VLT’s); reversing voters; cutting taxes for the wealthy at the expense of people with disabilities; and so on. Historical performance doesn’t guarantee future performance, but they seem to be highly correlated. Therefore, 50/50 on the best day.
Who Won the Week?
Realtors – Their courtroom TKO of ballot candy gives them confidence they can beat the proposed IP changes at the ballot. Either you fear the Realtors, or you will learn to fear the Realtors.
Disability advocates – Their shock-and-awe full-court-press to reverse the proposed cuts should be a chapter in lobbying textbooks.
Bill Hardwick – It’s still a tough path ahead, but Hardwick did his part, maneuvering the VLT bill out of the House and delivering it to the Senate with plenty of time left on the clock.
Scott Fitzpatrick – He shrugs off the slings and arrows, and just keeps cranking out the audits without fear or favor.
Find a downloadable version here.
Gubby Appts
Governor Mike Kehoe announced four appointments…
· Shane Weber was appointed to the Missouri Real Estate Appraisers Commission.
· Margaret Freihaut was reappointed to the Missouri State Board of Chiropractic Examiners.
· Elizabeth Grove and Dennis Knipmeyer were reappointed to the Safe Drinking Water Commission.
$5K+ Contributions
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee -$15,000 J&J Ventures Gaming of MO LLC.
Real Conservatives for St. Charles County PAC (pro-Ehlmann) - $10,000 from Elco Chevrolet Cadillac.
Hallmark Missouri PAC – $15,000 from Hallmark Cards Inc PAC.
KC Forward Progress - $7,500 from Stinson LLP.
IAFF Local 781 Legislative PAC - $10,000 from Kevin King For Mayor.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Donna Baringer, Craig Unruh, Elbert Walton, Jo Mannies, and Steve Stenger.
Sunday: Rep. Josh Hulbert.