MOScout Daily Update: Polling Memo Says Tax Plan Starts Underwater - Torch Machines Still Running? - No MEC Quorum Again and more…
Memo: HJR 173 Underwater
Opponents of “HJR 173/Everything Tax” are circulating a polling memo from Torchlight Strategies showing that the Kehoe tax plan starts underwater with Missourians and could be in deep trouble if opponents can get their message out. The pollster is Torchlight. It’s run by John Rodgers. He’s the former NRCC Executive Director, “about as Republican as they come.”
The survey was conducted from April 3–11, 2026. We surveyed 804 likely voters using a
mix of 477 live calls and 327 text-to-web surveys. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level is ±3.5%. Results were slightly weighted to ensure proper balance by age, gender, 2024 vote recall, and media market.
Support for the measure was worded as: “There is a proposed constitutional amendment that eliminates the state income tax and replaces it with a state sales tax. Do you favor or oppose this amendment?”
Support: 37.3%
Oppose: 49.1%
Not sure: 13.6%
· Particularly troublesome messaging among both the Republican primary electorate and the likely general electorate is the fact that this amendment creates a loophole that allows the legislature to create future sales taxes without the vote of the people.
After opposition messaging…
Support: 17.6%
Oppose: 75.3%
Not sure: 7.1%
Meanwhile
Missouri Independent reports on a huge fiscal note attached to the proposal. See the fiscal note here. MOIndy quotes Senate Appropriations Chair Rusty Black calling the note a “drafting error.” The intent, he said, is to allow lawmakers time to write a new sales tax law that would raise the revenue necessary to replace the income tax. “I do not want to be in charge of the appropriations committee that’s losing $8 billion dollars, and I don’t believe that’s what the plan is,” Black said.
What It Means
There’s already been palpable concern whether state government will be able to adequately manage the transition from an income tax to a sales tax without wildly outshooting or undershooting the revenue target.
· Whether it’s a drafting error or not, the process continues to fuel these concerns: voting it out of Fiscal Oversight without an accurate fiscal note is not exactly a lesson in good government.
Not Dark Yet
One MOScouter sent in this photo from an establishment on Missouri Boulevard in Jefferson City, showing that despite Torch’s announcement it would “disable” the machines, at least some right in the capital city, appear to be running as before.
Early April Quarters
Tomorrow is the deadline (5PM) for April campaign finance quarters. We’re just a little over three months from the August primary elections, so these reports will be very instructive to see who’s leading in fundraising. A couple early filings…
· The pro-Bill Eigel BILL PAC sent another $100,000 to his St. Charles County Executive campaign. From the 160+ pages, it appears his controversial fundraising tactic is still operational – a lot of small donations from retirees around the country. It’s not clear if these are recurring payments, which the legislature is seeking to outlaw, or the result of ads and emails.
· The MCR PAC will likely be one of the top political action committees. It’s the PAC, largely funded by Mike Rayner, that’s supporting pro-law enforcement candidates. It reported finishing with $1.9 million COH.
DOR’S FUSION
Sen. Sandy Crawford’s SB 1632 was presented in the Senate Transportation Committee. It’s a 100-page bill with a hodgepodge of provisions for the Department of Revenue.
Department of Revenue’s Zach Wyatt explained in testimony that the bill contains statutory changes as it implements FUSION. The bill “is really the crux of our new FUSION system (Fifty Unique Systems Into One Nexus). We currently have over 50 systems and we're starting to put those into one system. This has been a process that we've been doing over the last few years… Two years ago in November 2024, we implemented the driver's license portion of the Fusion system. In February 2027, we will be looking to implement the motor vehicle provisions of the new system as well.”
· The interplay between technology upgrades and changes in state law is evidenced by the effective date at the end of the bill: This act shall take effect as soon as technologically possible following the development and maintenance of a modernized, integrated system for the titling of vehicles, issuance and renewal of vehicle registrations, issuance and renewal of driver's licenses and identification cards, and perfection and release of liens and encumbrances on vehicles.
MEC Back on Ice
The Missouri Ethics Commission is once again without a quorum…
And that means “no action” on complaints…
Withdrawn Candidates
House 111 – Former Rep. Michael Frame (Democrat) withdrew.
$5K+ Contributions
People Not Politicians - $350,000 from American Opportunity Action (Washington, DC).
American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $10,000 from Chip Cook.
Beverly PAC (pro-Mike Jones) - $44,500 from Show Me Leadership PAC.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $25,000 from Ann Wagner for Congress.
Citizens to Elect Chief Jay Johnson - $110,000 from Jay Johnson.
AGC of MO PAC - $5,750 from Bloomsdale Excavating Co., Inc.
AGC of MO PAC - $6,000 from Herzog Contracting.
AGC of MO PAC - $8,500 from Collins and Hermann .
Lobbyist Registrations
Shanon Hawk added Truck and Engine Manufacturers Association.
Happy Birthday
Happy birthday to Rep. Mark Boyko, and Brad Robinson.