MOScout Daily Update: Senate Passes Kehoe Tax Plan - Schroer for Floor Leader - STL County Exec Poll - April Fundraising Numbers and more…
Senate Passes Kehoe Tax Plan
After a long day of debating other topics, the Senate took up the Kehoe tax plan (HJR 173 & 174) around 11:30PM. Sen. Curtis Trent, the Senate handler, brought a Senate Substitute. It passed 18-11. Several senators were absent, and three Republicans joined Democrats in voting in opposition: Sens. Lincoln Hough, Mike Moon, and Joe Nicola.
It keeps the same overall scheme – cutting the state income tax and replacing it with a broad sales tax, but differs substantially in that it doesn’t have the clockwork triggers that were in the version the House sent over.
Where the House version said, in detail, how the income tax would ratchet down (exact revenue triggers, exact size of each tax cut, inflation adjustments) with a hardwired path to zero by 2032, this new version deletes almost all of that. It just says the legislature has to pass laws later to reduce and eliminate the top income-tax rate based on revenue growth.
Additionally, the local rollback changed from an ongoing adjustment to a one-time cut.
Schroer For Floor
Sen. Nick Schroer announced he’s running for Senate Floor Leader. It looks right now like he’s squaring off against Sen. Curtis Trent. See his announcement here.
Schroer is the leader of the slimmed-down Senate Freedom Caucus. But he hasn’t thrown the legislative bombs for which that caucus is known.
· Senate leadership races are known for having twists and turns. And any vote counting at this point is very difficult due to the nine contested Republican primaries.
St. Louis County Exec Race
One MOScouter sent a very interesting poll on the St. Louis County Executive race. See the poll here. The margin of error for this survey is plus or minus 4%. The poll had 600 completions of likely Democratic voters from April 3–4.
Their take…
This race could not be much more up for grabs, with all three candidates tied at 16% and 52% of likely voters still undecided before positive bios. Williams shows he has the highest ceiling of the three candidates in the race, but he will need to start early to define himself to voters.
Williams has the strongest biography, with 64% saying it is convincing compared to 57% for Mosley and 56% for Zimmerman. He gains 6 points on the informed ballot compared to 3 points for Mosley and 2 points for Zimmerman, and he gains the most when leaners are pushed to make a decision, leading 25 to 19 to 19.
· Bottom line: Williams will need to show stronger fundraising numbers and start communicating with voters early to expand his base, garner new support, and show that his ceiling can be higher than the other candidates. If Zimmerman defines him before he does that could shake up the race.
I thought this question in particular was fascinating. Inflation has leapt to the #1 issue for voters instead of the usual public safety or schools.
Here’s a rundown of April fundraising numbers.
State Auditor
Republican Scott Fitzpatrick raised $54,260; spent $9,998; and has $370,562 on-hand.
· Missourians for a Responsible Budget PAC: $351,860
Democrat Quentin Wilson raised $7,972; spent $21,723; and has $45,429 on-hand.
State of the Race: Fitz has a substantial money lead, good name ID, no scandal and mostly – he’s a Republican in a state that hasn’t elected a statewide Dem in a long time.
SENATE REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES
Senate 6
Jake Vogel raised $35,745; spent $58,845; and has $92,803 on-hand.
· Lead the Way PAC: $31,943 COH.
Derrick Spicer raised $16,525; spent $2,675; and has $192,530 on-hand.
· Spicer for Senate PAC: $28,565 COH.
Lisa Thomas raised $268,250; spent $30,518; and has $237,731 on-hand.
Amber Buckles raised $225; spent $7; and has $218 on-hand.
Rudy Veit raised $2,204; spent $17,563; and has $294,303 on-hand.
· Central Missouri Leadership PAC: Limited Activity.
Ike Skelton hasn’t formed a campaign committee yet.
State of the Race: While Vogel is a favorite of some in the building, there’s some concern at his burn rate which puts him with a lower COH total than his opponents. This six-way primary is still wide open.
Senate 8
Jon Patterson raised $27,250; spent $23,439; and has $667,108 on-hand.
· Missouri Alliance PAC: $2,188,934 COH.
Dan Stacy raised $11,294; spent $7,751; and has $10,134 on-hand.
State of the Race: JP has campaign cash coming out of his ears. It’ll be a massive upset if he can’t translate that int a primary win.
Senate 10
Tricia Byrnes raised $135,060; spent $8,515; and has $153,158 on-hand.
· Values First PAC: $2,905 COH.
Mike Deering raised $28,149; spent $121; and has $28,027 on-hand.
· Cut the Bull PAC: $0 COH.
State of the Race: Byrnes starts with the money lead here, but the race is far from over.
Senate 16
Bill Hardwick raised $10,000; spent $13,553; and $ 205,847 has on-hand.
· Missouri Enterprise Fund: $115,740 COH.
Philip Lohmann raised $50; spent $0; and has $50 on-hand.
Don Mayhew raised $1,700; spent $13,719; and has $31,477 on-hand.
Hannah Kelly raised $5,650; spent $17,408; and has $62,710 on-hand.
· Accountability PAC: $4,494 COH.
· Esther PAC: $8,451 COH.
State of the Race: Hardwick has the dominant position, given his large cash lead.
Senate 18
Dusty Blue raised $9,792; spent $22,911; and has $96,818 on-hand.
Ed Lewis raised $5,149; spent $5,518; and $35,130 has on-hand.
· Rural Missouri Values: $10,259 COH.
Greg Sharpe raised $22,782; spent $25,437; and has $44,429 on-hand.
State of the Race: The switcheroo bringing Lewis into the race mans a slower start for him, but no one is burning this up right now.
Senate 20
Lori Rook raised $9,037; spent $19,379; and has $105,387 on-hand.
Curtis Trent raised $20,766; spent $38,270; and $257,153 has on-hand.
· 417 PAC: $471,541 COH.
State of the Race: Trent is taking this race seriously which makes an upset unlikely.
Senate 28
Sam Alexander raised $11,730; spent $11,508; and has $189,529 on-hand.
Brad Pollitt raised $23,360; spent $9,615; and $166,042 has on-hand.
· Rocker P Brand: $111,722 COH.
Chuck Lentz: committee formed after the deadline.
State of the Race: Alexander is positioned as the outsider here, but I’d say the edge right now is in Pollitt’s favor.
Senate 32
Ellen Nichols raised $273,479; spent $41,875; and has $231,604 on-hand.
· Stand for Truth PAC: $20,050.
Jill Carter raised $7,400; spent $27,555; and has $32,763 on-hand.
· Show Me Values PAC: $79,080 COH.
State of the Race: With Nichols hug self-funding war-chest, Carter has a race on her hands.
Senate 34
Sean Pouche raised $132,000; spent $1,181; and has $152,294 on-hand.
Mike Jones raised $1,000; spent $6,050; and has $88,619 on-hand.
· Beverly PAC: Limited Activity.
Ryan Gerster: no committee formed.
State of the Race: The hallway feels like the Axiom machine behind Jones is hard to beat in northwest Missouri, but Gerster could have an interesting geographic play if he can raise some money.
SENATE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES
Senate 4
Steve Butz raised $19,107; spent $37,712; and $183,994 has on-hand.
· Butz PAC: $132,565 COH.
Gina Mitten raised $30,863; spent $19,669; and has $100,399 on-hand.
· Good Hands PAC: $454 COH.
State of the Race: Butz has the money lead, but Team Mitten is counting on her pro-choice stance to resonate with the Dem primary voters.
Senate 14
John Bowman raised $16,997; spent $12,211; and has $28,145 on-hand.
· Come Back PAC: $25,619 COH.
Shante Duncan raised $1,600; spent $2,569; and has $12,543 on-hand.
Joe Palm raised $2,460; spent $2,310; and has $9,321 on-hand.
Raychel Proudie raised $5,923; spent $1,649; and has $47,098 on-hand.
· PROUD PAC: $19,381 COH.
State of the Race: Bowman continues to raise – and spend – the most, with Proudie the only one who’s competitive on the money front.
COMPETITIVE HOUSE RACES TO WATCH
House 12 (Mike Jones to Senate)
Wesley Willett (R): no committee formed.
Jerry Hickey (R): no committee formed.
Tracey Steele (D) raised $19,618; spent $15,894; and has $14,443 on-hand.
House 16
Rep. Chris Brown raised $0; spent $3,348; and has $40,259 on-hand.
· Kansas City Forward: $30,162 COH.
Dan Kinate (D) raised $11,700; spent $1,637; and has $10,062 on-hand.
House 17
Rep. Bill Allen raised $16,422; spent $2,335; and has $27,777 on-hand.
· Buck Up PAC: $6,449 COH.
Susan Hoisington (D) raised $14,974; spent $356; and has $14,617 on-hand.
Shawna Ackerson (D) raised $904; spent $507; and has $433 on-hand.
House 21
Michael Young (R) raised $2,390; spent $351; and has $2,038 on-hand.
Rep. Will Jobe raised $2,250; spent $1,109; and has $5,738 on-hand.
House 29 (Crossley not running for re-election)
Robert Bruette (R): no committee formed.
Tedi H. Rowland (D): committee formed after the deadline.
House 30 (JP termed)
Phyllis Edson (R) raised $19,000; spent $13,395; and has $7,767 on-hand.
Jeff Martin (R) raised $21,733; spent $3,736; and has $53,598 on-hand.
Kevin Grover (D) raised $14,938; spent $1,644; and has $26,156 on-hand.
House 34
Charles Bisignano (R) filed an Exemption Committee.
Sean Smith (R) filed Limited Activity.
· Missourians for Common Sense PAC was formed after the deadline.
Rep. Kemp Strickler raised $10,090; spent $2,186; and has $50,352 on-hand.
House 56
Rep. Michael Davis raised $500; spent $0; and has $15,967 on-hand.
Staci Czar (D) raised $3,245; spent $1,086; and has $2,158 on-hand.
Mitch Mullvain (D): no committee formed
House 92
Kenneth Abram (R) raised $0; spent $105; and has $2,496 on-hand.
Mirhad Hasanovic (R) raised $841; spent $485; and has $1,230 on-hand.
Rep. Michael Burton raised $4,250; spent $0; and has $11,824 on-hand.
House 94 (Jim Murphy termed)
Maryellen Murphy (R) raised $6,900; spent $1,940; and has $32,173 on-hand.
Cathy Summers (D) raised $1,630; spent $27; and has $1,602 on-hand.
House 96
Rep. Brad Christ raised $11,038; spent $10,394; and has $222,572 on-hand.
· Real Action PAC: $ 270,281 COH.
Matt Vitale (D) raised $14,780; spent $4,604; and has $13,101 on-hand.
House 98
Timothy Bosch (R) raised $3,447; spent $300; and has $3,147 on-hand.
Rep. Jaclyn Zimmermann raised $6,787; spent $5,895; and has $14,936 on-hand.
House 100
Rep. Philip Oehlerking raised $500; spent $1,226; and has $37,064 on-hand.
Mary Ann Perkins (D) raised $13,922; spent $1,417; and has $14,054 on-hand.
House 101
Rep. Ben Keathley raised $1,500; spent $1,798; and has $60,307 on-hand.
Freedom Is Bold PAC: $42,743 COH.
South Asian DESI PAC: $3,145 COH.
Paul Lentz (D): no committee formed.
Richard Smreker (D): committee formed after the deadline.
House 105
Rep. Colin Wellenkamp raised $700; spent $556; and has $8,446 on-hand.
· Missouri Rising PAC: Limited Activity.
Cat Clayton (D) raised $10,195; spent $6,092; and has $10,079 on-hand.
House 132
Russ Gosselin (R) raised $9,020; spent $1,245; and has $10,774 on-hand.
· Missouri Families First PAC: Limited Activity.
Rep. Jeremy Dean raised $3,385; spent $812; and has $11,820 on-hand.
House 133
Jerry Angelo (R) raised $3,323; spent $47; and has $3,275 on-hand.
Katelyn Zach (D) raised ; spent; and has on-hand.
House 136
Jacey Buckles (R) raised $7,630; spent $2,524; and has $5,105 on-hand.
Rep. Stephanie Hein raised $10,625; spent $711; and has $57,889 on-hand.
Forward 417: Limited Activity.
INCUMBENT HOUSE REPUBLICANS WITH PRIMARIES
House 54
Joe Plemons: no committee formed.
Rep. Brandon Phelps raised $3,500; spent $13,972; and has $24,295 on-hand.
Missouri Dream PAC: $28,985 COH.
House 56
Rep. Michael Davis raised $500; spent $0; and has $15,967 on-hand.
Steve Baker raised $4,250; spent $1,217; and has $4,886 on-hand.
House 61
John Grady raised $952; spent $337; and has $614 on-hand.
Rep. Bruce Sassmann raised $750; spent $3,827; and has $2,910 on-hand.
House 64
Jason Iannantuoni: no committee formed.
Rep. Deanna Self raised $450; spent $207; and has $3,662 on-hand.
House 106
Rep. Travis Wilson raised $4,830; spent $8,538; and has $40,579 on-hand.
Chris Sander raised $61,927; spent $21,630; and has $53,160 on-hand.
House 108
Rep. Mike Costlow raised $2,600; spent $1,814; and has $11,752 on-hand.
Max Calfo filed Limited Activity.
House 138
Tom Franiak filed Limited Activity.
Rep. Burt Whaley raised $570; spent $58; and has $11,712 on-hand.
House 139
Sandy Karnes raised $10,349; spent $5,074; and has $38,976 on-hand.
· Fight for Missouri PAC: $0
Rep. Bob Titus raised $0; spent $3,434; and has $27,870 on-hand.
House 140
Rep. Jamie Ray Gragg raised $0; spent $5,089; and has $6,593 on-hand.
· Smoke on the Mountain PAC: Limited Activity.
Angela Romine: formed after the deadline.
House 144
Chris Dinkins raised $3,468; spent $71; and has $3,397 on-hand.
· Red Hawk PAC: $508 COH.
Rep. Tony Harbison raised $8,720; spent $6,686; and has $8,594 on-hand.
· Arcadia Leadership PAC: $2,100 COH.
House 145
Rep. Bryant Wolfin raised $7,641; spent $695; and has $8,936 on-hand.
Scott Sattler raised $1,250; spent $50; and has $1,199 on-hand.
House 154
Rep. Lisa Durnell raised $2,125; spent $2,886; and has $14,038 on-hand.
Travis Smith raised $978; spent $500; and has $478 on-hand.
INCUMBENT HOUSE DEMOCRATS WITH PRIMARIES
House 28
Mike Sager: only active committee is “debt service” from last race.
Rep. Donna Barnes raised $600; spent $847; and has $8,440 on-hand.
House 66
Rep. Marlene Terry raised $500; spent $3,469; and has $2,099 on-hand.
Theresa Hester: Limited Activity.
House 68
Rep. Kem Smith raised $4,060; spent $3,716; and has $9,981 on-hand.
Janay Mosley: has an active committee, but hasn’t filed reports since 2024.
House 74
Rep. Marla Smith raised $3,150; spent $1,650; and has $15,241 on-hand.
Maria Miller: no committee formed.
House 75
Rep. Chanel Mosley raised $0; spent $1,098; and has $2,767 on-hand.
Chris Brown: no committee formed.
House 83
David Dimmitt raised $11,110; spent $10,044; and has $19,270 on-hand.
Rep. Ray Reed hasn’t filed his April committee yet.
TOP 25 COH PACs
Mid-America Carpenters Regional Council MO-KS Area PAC - $2.3 million.
Missouri Alliance PAC (pro-Patterson) - $2.1 million.
MCR PAC (Rayner) - $1.9 million.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $1.5 million.
Missouri and Kansas Laborers' PAC - $1.4 million.
Luetkemeyer For Missouri - $1.3 million.
American Dream PAC (pro-Keho) - $1.28 million
Stop the Ban - $1 million.
Tony PAC (pro-Luetkemeyer) - $901,171.
RightPath PAC (pro-Wash U) - $874 402.
Citizens For Jake Zimmerman - $854,154.
We Are Missouri (organized labor) - $843,881.
Conservative Justice for Missouri PAC (pro-Hanaway) - $834,562.
Missouri Leadership PAC (pro-Riley) $834,353.
Pipefitters Assoc Local #533 - $749,619.
Missouri Voter Project - State PAC _ $685,418.
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $674,285.
Patterson For Missouri - $667,108.
International Union of Operating Engineers Local 101 PAC - $662,014.
MISSOURI REALTORS PAC, INC - $654,664.
Truth in Campaigns - $614,958.
BUILD St. Louis PAC, Inc. - $578,428.
Liberty and Justice PAC (pro-Bailey) - $556,846.
Lucas For KC - $516,757.
International Union of Operating Engineers Political & Educational Fund - $503,382.
$5K+ Contributions
Missouri Alliance PAC (pro-JP) - $10,000 from National Trailer Inc.
Her Health, Her Future PAC -$5,205 from J Fred Barton.
Lake of the Ozarks Community Gaming - $100,000 from Signature GLP LLC.
Sean Smith for Missouri - $45,000 from Sean Smith.
UAW Region 4 Midwest States PAC (MO) - $7,052 from Midwest State Cap (Ottawa, IL).
Baird For Jackson County - $20,000 from William Baird.
Lobbyist Registrations
Thomas “Shad” Burner added City of West Plains.
Amy Blunt and Jay Reichard added Bemiston Acquisitions, LLC.
Neal English added Schneider Electric Buildings Americas, Inc.
Happy Birthday
Happy birthdays to Matt Dameron, Shane Cohn, and David Richardson.