MOScout Daily Update: Two Off-Season Storms Brewing - Hoskins May Declare Referendum Unconstitutional - Why Moon Sat Down - VLTs 2027 Pitch and more…
Welcome to the off-season…
Missouri Independent has their rundown of session “winners and losers” here.
Missourinet has a good list of high-profile stuff that passed and things that didn’t. See it here.
But I want to spend some time this morning looking around the corner. Two big things are looming…
First: money, money, money.
The budget. The governor “pre-withheld” millions from the budget the legislature just passed. But the assumption is that we’ll see additional line-item vetoes when he acts on the budget. And the governor’s office will be keeping a close eye on revenue. It’s a tight budget. The latest numbers I have seen – close of business May 14 – have general revenue right about on target with the consensus revenue estimate, down 2% compared to last year.
As a reminder – we’ve had basically flat revenue now for a couple years, masked by an infusion of federal money.
FY 2026: $13.15 billion (estimate)
FY 2025: $13.43 billion
FY 2024: $13.43 billion
FY 2023: $13.23 billion
More worrisome is that the projection for next year is for a rise of 3.8% in general revenue. If we get a few months into next fiscal year (which starts July 1) without revenue growth, we could see additional withholds.
The schools. Although the overall pot of money is stagnant, there are two big efforts underway that will change who gets what in the realm of education. Governor Mike Kehoe’s task force to rewrite the foundation formula is charged with delivering its report by December. Additionally, Reps. Dirk Deaton and Bishop Davidson’s ill-fated higher ed funding plan has spurred a move to reconfigure that as well. These will both be big fights next year, but the positioning will be underway during this off-season.
Second: campaign season. Although there are no high-profile statewide campaigns (Auditor Scott Fitzpatrick looks safe for re-election), this year’s legislative races will be consequential. There is huge turnover coming to both bodies. House communication chief Ben Peters estimates 51 new members next year – nearly a quarter of the chamber. Meanwhile in the Senate, that number will be at least 11 – nearly a third!
Why This Is Important: Legislators often find their positions on issues and become fixed. Folks become known as “pro-utilities” or “pro-insurers” or “pro-VLTs.” Some of the issues involving interest groups pitted against each other become entrenched because each has “their legislators.” A massive turnover like this – in addition to requiring the “re-education” of legislators – offers a chance to scramble those lines and produce changes in policies.
· Additionally, with at least nine Republican senators not returning, these campaigns will impact the Senate leadership races.
Speaking of campaigns…
Ozzie Smith will headline a fundraiser for Derrick Spicer at 1 Cardinal Way later this month. Spicer is running in Senate 6, where Sen. Mike Bernskoetter is termed.
And
Registration is now open for Sen. Kurtis Gregory’s popular Golf Scramble. June 22 at Indian Foothills Golf Course in Marshall, MO.
Hoskins to Call Referendum Unconstitutional?
Dems fume at Secretary of State Denny Hoskins for slow-walking the signature certification for the redistricting referendum, but wait until he declares the effort unconstitutional. That sounds like a real possibility and will certainly lead to another round of lawsuits. From his press conference last week: I’ve said from the beginning where I have questions about the constitutionality of doing a referendum on a congressional redistricting. I mean, as you can see, the dates don’t make sense… I’ve not said whether I’ll rule it constitutional or unconstitutional, but those are some of the things that we’re looking at. We’re looking at prior court case, prior precedent. We’re looking at attorney general’s opinion and based on her counsel as well as our own general counsel. So I have not made any decision yet…
Dems: VLTs’ $$$ Pitch
House Minority Leader Ashley Aune, speaking to reporters at the end of session, predicted that the VLT debate will be back next year as a component of helping raise revenue. “I think that it will be interesting to see what takes shape next year. I think one of the biggest things that was happening in the building was a lot of pressure being put on legislators to [legalize VLTs] because of our financial situation in our state. Future budget years are going to be a lot tighter. We know this, and we had a lot of pressure from the VLT lobby to support VLTs for the revenue.”
Luetky to Moon: Think About the Future
At Governor Mike Kehoe’s press conference, Sen. Tony Luetkemeyer tipped how he persuaded Sen. Mike Moon to ease off his filibustering on Thursday.
“The conversation that I had with him is just very simply, look, if you have a problem with a particular bill, by all means get up on it … but to just carte blanche say no to everything, I felt like it would help him advance his future legislative priorities with many of his returning colleagues next year if he took a more strategic approach…”
Critiquing Royal Stadium Funding
University of Kansas City assistant professor Kabeer Bora critiques the money going to the new Royals Stadium. Listen to the interview here.
· “What else would we really be doing with this $1 billion that we're using to fund the stadium?”
Pride Controversy in Mansfield
From Facebook: On May 11, through the Mansfield City Clerk, the Mayor of Mansfield confirmed that Mansfield Pride would be permitted to utilize the square on June 6th... However, at last night’s City Council meeting, a member of the community claimed he had reserved the square on June 6th and that the city had lost his reservation… The individual who claimed the scheduling conflict also expressed opposition to the event itself during his public comments to the council. As a result of the opposition, the City Council and Mayor chose to close the Mansfield square…
We urge the City of Mansfield not to allow a small number of loud opponents of equality and freedom to determine who is welcome in public spaces or whose community events deserve support. Public spaces belong to all residents.
· Lovers of Little House on the Prairie, of course, know Mansfield, Missouri with its Laura Ingalls Wilder home.
· Mansfield is represented by Sen. Justin Brown and Rep. Melissa Schmidt.
New Freedom Coming to MO?
Paperwork filed by lobbyist Richard McIntosh hints that New Freedom may be eyeing a Missouri expansion. He’s the registered agent for New Freedom Mo LLC.
New Freedom, in Arizona, offers “pioneering programs and services empower motivated justice-involved, previously incarcerated individuals to successfully integrate back into our communities. Our members have access to everything they need to create positive change for themselves and their communities.”
Howard Out
MOScouter: Chris Howard is dropping out of the County Executive race in Jefferson County. This leaves Tim Whitney as the clear front-runner having significantly more cash on hand than anyone else in the race and previously securing the endorsements of Former AG Andrew Bailey, the fraternal order of police, and the Jefferson County Sheriff and Prosecutor.
MO-KS Laborers Issue Cease and Desist
The Missouri-Kansas Laborers District Council issued a formal cease and desist letter to the corporate-backed political action committee “MO Tax Relief NOW,” demanding the immediate removal of deceptive, AI-generated posts on their social media. These ads feature fraudulent images of construction workers wearing hard hats emblazoned with Laborers’ International Union of North America (LIUNA) and other union logos to falsely imply labor support for a tax proposal that would have a devastating impact on working families across Missouri.
Withdrawn Candidates
In House 116, Republican Christian Gourley withdrew. This is where Rep. Dale Wright is termed. The two remaining Republican candidates are Jason Green and David Todd.
Gubby Appts
Governor Mike Kehoe announced a couple appointments…
· Andrew A. Boster, of Edina, was appointed as Associate Circuit Judge for Knox County in the 2nd Judicial Circuit.
· Brian G. Ellsworth, of Cabool, was appointed as Associate Circuit Judge for Texas County in the 25th Judicial Circuit.
· Robert Seek, of Eldon, was appointed as the Miller County Prosecuting Attorney.
Lobbyist Registrations
Richard McIntosh deleted Nola Education, LLC.
$5k+ Contributions
Committee for Local Fairness STL - $9,000 from Municipal League of Metro St. Louis.
Stop the Ban (anti-A3) - $100,000 from Emily Rauh Pulitzer.
Her Health, Her Future PAC (pro-A3) - $25,000 from James Shaughnessy.
Her Health, Her Future PAC - $25,000 from Mark Schell.
Her Health, Her Future PAC - $25,000 from Leonard Dino.
Her Health, Her Future PAC - $25,000 from Timothy Sansone.
Her Health, Her Future PAC - $10,000 from Mark Hadfield.
Her Health, Her Future PAC - $10,000 from James Dierberg (Jackson, WY).
Her Health, Her Future PAC - $9,000 from John Baumstark Sr.
Friends of Tim Whitney - $25,000 from L.I.U.N.A Local 110 PAC.
Common Sense Kansas City - $100,000 from International Association of Fire Fighters (FIRE PAC) (Washington, DC).
Respect MO Voters Campaign - $10,000 from John Danforth.
Tarwater for Executive - $40,000 from Carojoto Inc.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Julie Baker and Carolyn Kindle.