MOScout Daily Update: Trump Underwater in Senate 30 - J & J Gives Bean PAC $100K - AFP for Nichols - Poll: Ehlmann Leads Exec Race and more…

Trump Underwater in Senate 30 Poll

One reader sent this snippet from a Public Policy Polling survey of 570 likely November voters from May 14–15 (margin of error is +/-4.1%).   It shows the sinking popularity of President Donald Trump in this swing district.

The numbers show serious momentum for Democrat Betsy Fogle as Republicans are underwater with moderate Republicans and Independent voters in the district… The overall political climate puts Republicans in a challenging position, with Trump at -14 in the district.

What It Means

Obviously, good news for Rep. Betsy Fogle trying to flip the district for Dems.

St. Charles Exec Poll

A Remington Research poll conducted earlier this month shows St. Charles County Executive Steve Ehlmann with a lead in his re-election bid.

Q8: The candidates in the August Republican Primary Election for St. Charles County Executive are listed below. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Bill Eigel: 23%

Steve Ehlmann: 28%

Jason Law: 13%

Undecided: 36%

See the full poll here.  And the polling memo here: “This race is not fluid. It is structurally favorable to Steve Ehlmann.”

·       One MOScouter wonders, “Is the Governor going to weigh in on this race considering his position is 'anyone but Bill Eigel'?”

Breaking… AFP-MO To Endorse Nichols

Americans for Prosperity – Missouri is expected to announce their endorsement of Ellen Nichols today.  She’s mounting a primary challenge to Sen. Jill Carter in Senate 32.  Carter scored OK (90%) on AFP’s 2025 legislator scorecard.  Perhaps tension over school choice issues and Carter’s support for the stadium subsidy package last summer soured the relationship.

·       Nichols is the wife of former Sen. Bill White, who Carter defeated in 2022.

Google’s $15B Data Center

Governor Mike Kehoe was on hand for yesterday’s announcement of a $15 billion data center in Montgomery County.

·       “Google’s historic investment in Montgomery County is a testament to Missouri’s growing reputation as a premier destination for innovation and next-generation technology,” said Governor Mike Kehoe.

But one MOScouter notes the comments in the Facebook announcement are heavily negative.  This is in line with a poll I mentioned Tuesday that 7 in 10 Americans would oppose a data center being built near them.

·       I wonder if we’ll see the issue “weaponized” in the upcoming election cycle with candidates embracing outright bans, the way everyone was against foreign ownership of land two years ago.

J&J Gives Bean PAC $100K

J & J Ventures sent $100,000 to the PAC of Jason Bean.  It’s the latest indication that supporters of legalizing VLTs are not taking this year’s setback as a final defeat.

·       The latest check comes on the heels of other recent checks: $50K to both Sen. Curtis Trent and Rep. Bill Hardwick.

Vernetti and Warwick for Gas Tax Suspension

Two more state representatives – Reps. Jeff Vernetti and Chris Warwick – have joined Rep. Tricia Byrnes call for a special session to suspend the state gas tax.

According to the MoDOT website, Missouri’s gas tax is 29.5 cents per gallon – gasoline and diesel.

·       4.45 cents goes to cities

·       3.90 cents goes to counties

·       21.15 cents goes to MoDOT

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Quiet Winner: Mazzie Christensen

Another of session’s “quiet winners” was Rep. Mazzie Christensen. Jefferson City was described by one former denizen as “the place marriages go to die,” butChristensen turned the cliché on its head.  She might be the only state representative to forgo re-election to actually spend more time with her family. 

·       As one reader put it: “Left happily on her own terms. Rare in this term limits period.”

House 83: Reed Touts Firefighters Nod

Rep. Ray Reed earned the endorsement of the IAFF Local 2665.

On behalf of the Professional Firefighters and Paramedics of Eastern Missouri IAFF Local 2665, with over 2,700 area Fire Fighters, Paramedics, and 911 Dispatchers, serving eight counties over Eastern Missouri; we are very proud to enthusiastically make your endorsement for re-election to the 83rd District of Missouri’s House of Representatives… During your time serving in Missouri’s House of Representatives, you have shown that you will stand side by side with IAFF Local 2665 as they fight to strengthen public sector collective bargaining…

·       Reed faces a primary challenge from David Dimmitt.

Uncertainty Around Marijuana Rescheduling

The Division of Cannabis Regulation’s podcast of current issues highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the federal “rescheduling” of marijuana.   Listen to the podcast here.

The April 2026 federal rule says FDA-approved marijuana products and marijuana covered by a state medical marijuana license are being placed in Schedule III.  But it’s unclear how Missouri firms can take advantage of that.

·       “DCR hasn't received any communication or requests for licensing information from the DEA.”

·       “DCR hasn't received any guidance from the DEA for the format of license verification.”

Hanaway Targeting VLT ‘Kingpins’

Attorney General Catherine Hanaway was interviewed by former Speaker Elijah Haahr on his KWTO radio show yesterday.  She spoke about crypto ATMs which are involved in many scams.

Most interesting, though, was the conversation around VLTs. 

·       Hanaway estimates it was a $1 billion industry. 

·       They’ve shut down 17,000 machines with an estimated 10,000 still operating illegally.

·       She’s not trying to hit small business owners, but is targeting the “kingpins.” “I don't want to have to prosecute like individual convenience store operators. Like, I don't want to have to go after small businesses. I'm looking to go after the kingpins who own thousands of these machines and hopefully get them to shut down voluntarily, pay fines, comply with the law.”

Waymo Not Waitin’?

Post-Dispatch reports that Waymo may not wait for the slow-moving legislature…

Self-driving taxi company Waymo will keep testing its vehicles on St. Louis roads — with human drivers, for now — despite losing its push for a state law to regulate the technology.

Legislation that would have blocked local regulations, and established liability requirements and law enforcement procedures for driverless vehicles, died at the end of Missouri's legislative session last week… But with the recent defeat, Chris Bonelli, spokesman for Waymo, wouldn't say whether Waymo would launch its driverless service in St. Louis anyway.

OpenAI Pushing State Regs

Politico reports that “OpenAI has a plan to deal with the wave of legislation aimed at regulating artificial intelligence: influence bills in statehouses across the country, one state at a time.”

·       “What we're basically trying to do here is use a bunch of the big states to come together and mirror each other to de facto create a national standard.”

·       OpenAI is pressing more states to adopt the AI safety laws it helped shape in California and New York, which impose new transparency and reporting rules on top AI developers while shying away from steep penalties or new legal liabilities.

$5K+ Contributions

Conservative Leadership for Southeast Missouri (pro-Bean) - $100,000 from J & J Ventures Gaming of Missouri LLC (Effingham, IL).

Conservative Justice for Missouri PAC (pro-Hanaway) - $10,000 from HB Strategies.

Committee for Local Fairness STL - $39,458 from St. Louis REALTORS.

Missouri First - $30,000 from QC Holdings Inc. (Lenexa, KS).

Lobbyist Registrations

Ralph Bellar added Oldham Village TDD.

Birthdays

Happy birthday to MO McCullough.