MOScout Daily Update: May Revenue Drops - Rupp on Transmission - Looking at the Stadium Votes - VLTs’ Constitutional Issue and more…
May Revenue Drops
State revenue in May declined 11% compared to May 2025. The drop was driven by shortfalls in individual income tax and revenue from pass-through entities.
With one month remaining in the fiscal year, collections are down 2.1%, right on the nose of the December consensus revenue estimate revision. In dollars, that’s a decline of about $250 million compared to last year.
· The question is whether the weakness will extend into the future, endangering next year’s estimate of 3.8% growth.
Rupp on Transmission
Former Public Service Commission Chair Scott Rupp writes in an op-ed in the Missouri Independent that transmission needs to be considered as Missouri’s electric needs are planned. Read it here.
· Transmission is not just the “wires in between.” It is the system that allows generation decisions to work in the real world. Without it, even the best generation plans cannot deliver power where and when it’s needed…
· Load growth is accelerating. Not just from new industries, but from electrification, economic development, and developing consumer demand… This is not a moment for siloed thinking. It is a moment for disciplined, integrated planning, where transmission is considered alongside generation from the start, and where both are aligned with realistic demand projections…
What It Means
Rupp is making the case that Missouri can’t treat transmission as an afterthought, and shouldn’t let local opposition or fragmented planning be an obstacle to systemwide needs.
· The op-ed reads a bit like a preview of the next big utility argument in Jefferson City.
Meanwhile
This chart showed up in my inbox this morning…
Will Stadium Vote Be a Killer?
As we head into the final two months of the primary election season, another issue to watch for when mailers, TV and radio ads start flying is the votes on last year’s stadium subsidy.
Here’s how some folks in primaries voted…
CD-5: Rick Brattin – Yes.
Senate 4: Steve Butz – Yes during special session, but No during the regular session vote.
Senate 6: Rudy Veit – Yes.
Senate 10: Tricia Byrnes – Yes.
Senate 14: Rachel Proudie – No during special session, but Yes during regular session.
Senate 16: Don Mayhew – absent (absent during regular session); Bill Hardwick – No.
Senate 18: Greg Sharpe – Yes.
Senate 28: Brad Pollitt – No during special session, but Yes during regular session.
Senate 32: Jill Carter – Yes.
· And in that hot General Election battle… Senate 30: Democrat Betsy Fogle – Yes; Republican Melanie Stinnett – No.
Constitutional Problem for VLTs?
Today there are two more checks from J & J Ventures as they appear to be ramping up efforts to return to the General Assembly next year and push for VLT legalization. But some opponents point to the constitutional limitation on “games of chance,” setting the stage for a legal fight if legislation were to pass.
MO Constitution III Section 39(e): The general assembly is authorized to permit upon the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers only, which shall include artificial spaces that contain water and that are within 1000 feet of the closest edge of the main channel of either of those rivers, lotteries, gift enterprises and games of chance to be conducted on excursion gambling boats and floating facilities. Any license issued before or after the adoption date of this amendment for any excursion gambling boat or floating facility located in any such artificial space shall be deemed to be authorized by the General Assembly and to be in compliance with this Section.
Meanwhile
Attorney General Catherine Hanaway, on Instagram, says “the deadline in St. Louis County to voluntarily remove or permanently disable all illegal slot machines. Anyone continuing to house these devices is now subject to civil and criminal prosecution. My office will support Prosecutor Melissa Price Smith in enforcing the law and ensuring that anyone creating nuisance centers to attract crime and undermine neighborhood safety is held accountable.”
The Medical Case for AVs
Doctors have published an open letter arguing that autonomous vehicles are a public health issue. Read it here.
More than 100 Americans die in car crashes every day. Cyclists killed by red-light runners. Pedestrians killed by drunk drivers. Families killed by someone confusing the accelerator and the brake. In 2024, more than 39,000 people died on American roads. Crashes are the leading cause of death for Americans aged 16 to 24, accounting for nearly half of all fatalities in that age group. 5.1 million crash injuries required medical attention in 2023 alone. The combined economic and quality-of-life toll exceeds $1 trillion annually. That is larger than the entire Medicare budget.
Fitzwater Contra Bikers’ Rolling Stops
The News Tribune’s Stephi Smith reports that Jeff City Mayor Ron Fitzwater is planning to veto “a new ordinance allowing cyclists in Jefferson City to treat stop signs as yield signs and stop lights as stop signs.” Read it here.
· Fitzwater wrote that governing bodies should provide education about new laws "since the City of Jefferson would be the first ... in Missouri if it were to pass" and said statewide legislation may be more appropriate to reduce confusion.
eMailbag on Dusty Blue
Polling must be looking good for Dusty!
Lobbyist Registrations
Doug Galloway, Bill Gamble, Jack Gamble, and Troy Stremming added American Digital Security.
Jeffrey Brooks, Cynthia Gamble, John Gamble, William Gamble, Kathryn Gamble, David Jackson, Elizabeth Grace Riley, Jorgen Schlemeier, Sarah Schlemeier, and Nikki Strong deleted DJI Technology, INC.
Jeffrey Brooks, John Gamble, Kathryn Gamble, David Jackson, Elizabeth Grace Riley, Jorgen Schlemeier, Sarah Schlemeier, and Nikki Strong deleted Education Direction
Jeffrey Brooks, David Jackson, Jorgen Schlemeier, Sarah Schlemeier, and Nikki Strong deleted Hemp Beverage Alliance
Jon Hensley and Zach Pollock added Redbird Network; and deleted Stupp Fiber Missouri.
Jeff Aboussie deleted Noah's Arc Foundation of Missouri, Osage River Gaming, and TSI Global.
Jay Reichard deleted Missourians for Fair Regulations.
Jeff Roorda deleted Great State Strategies, LLC.
Eapen Thampy deleted Midwest Psychedelic Training, and Holistic Alternatives Recovery Trust.
Strategic Capitol Consulting deleted ClassWallet.
$5k+ Contributions
We Are Missouri - $50,420 from Missouri AFL-CIO.
Legio XIII PAC - $30,000 from J&J Ventures Gaming of Missouri (Effingham, IL).
Mosley PAC LLC - $10,000 from J & J Ventures Gaming of Missouri LLC.
CN-MO PAC - $25,000 from Southern Glazer's Wine and Spirits of Missouri (Miami, FL).
CN-MO PAC - $25,000 from Bally's Corporation (Providence, RI).
Heartland Action PAC - $10,000 from MHS Trust.
Hy-Vee Employees PAC Federal Committee - Missouri - $12,500 from Hy-Vee Inc Employees' PAC (Des Moines, IA).
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Chris Lonsdale.