MOScout Daily Update: Farm Bureau Endorses Carter, A4 - Realtors Add $2M to Fight A4 - Missing ‘Property’ - Riley’s First Year and more…
Realtors Plunk Another $2M Down
The Realtors deposited $2 million into Missourians for Fair Governance. That’s their committee dedicated to defeating Amendment 4, which would make it very difficult for citizen-initiated ballot questions to pass.
This is the second political war that the Realtors will be engaged in over the next two months. They’re also fighting Amendment 5’s changes to the state tax framework. For that, they sent $1.9 million to Missourians for Fair Taxation.
The Realtors are demonstrating that they have the wherewithal to fight both proposals at the same time.
What It Means
A4 and A5 will both be very tough battles; well-funded opposition makes ballot issues difficult to pass.
It feels like this term limits has brought the legislature this potential Waterloo. Most veterans of the building would have counseled lawmakers to steer clear of raising the ire of the powerful Realtors. But even as they telegraphed their opposition to these proposals, the legislature appeared incapable of accommodating their concerns.
I wonder if they could have been mollified rather than provoked. Clearly, an explicit constitutional carveout would have made it hard for them to actively oppose A5, and perhaps a less draconian threshold could have muted their opposition to A4.
1 Big Thing: Missing ‘Property’
The Missouri Supreme Court denied the appeal of the Western District’s rewriting of the ballot language of Amendment 5.
Governor Mike Kehoe’s statement on the decision: It is unfortunate that three unelected judges decided to mislead Missouri voters by rewriting the legislatively approved ballot language for Amendment 5… We remain confident that passing Amendment 5 is the best opportunity for Missourians to modernize our state’s outdated tax code, provide economic growth, and bring relief to families through income and property tax cuts.
From their first TV ad, it appears that supporters of A5 were planning to make “property tax cuts” a central selling point for the amendment.
Property taxes were mentioned in the original ballot language…
Shall the Missouri Constitution be amended to:
Phase-out the individual income tax based on revenue growth;
Reduce personal property and other local taxes when local revenues increase;
Modify the sales and use tax to eliminate income tax and reduce local taxes; and
Protect local funding for public schools and other purposes?
But it didn’t survive the judicial rewrite…
Shall the Missouri Constitution be amended to:
• Require legislative phase-out of the individual state income tax based on
revenue growth, and authorize the expansion of sales and use taxes;
• Curtail constitutional limits on taxing goods and services; and
• Require local tax rate cuts without reducing school funding if local sales
tax revenue increases?
Will many votes be lost without that word? We’ll see…
Farm Bureau Makes Endorsements
The Missouri Farm Bureau released two big endorsements yesterday.
· The PAC is supporting Sen. Jill Carter, who’s running for re-election and is in a tough match with a self-funder, Ellen Nichols. “She has built a reputation for listening to her constituents and working diligently to represent their interests. We look forward to seeing her continue her advocacy and leadership on behalf of farmers, ranchers and landowners in our area.”
· They’re backing Amendment 4, which makes citizen IPs harder to pass. “Missouri’s Constitution is not for sale,” said Missouri Farm Bureau President Garrett Hawkins. “Missouri Farm Bureau members know first-hand what can happen when our Constitution can be bought and paid for by special interest groups. The threat to rural America’s livelihood is real.”
The Riley Agenda
Six months from now, Rep. Alex Riley will become the next House speaker. He’s a solid conservative and his agenda won’t be a surprise to anyone: lower taxes, more freedom. But it will be significantly shaped by forces outside his control.
Tax cuts. The outcome of the Amendment 5 ballot issue will have a profound effect on Riley’s tenure. If it passes, implementing the phaseout of the income tax – and critically, the phase-in of the expanded sales tax – will be, far and away, the biggest issue in Jefferson City.
Budget. If state revenues continue their anemic pace, next year’s budget will be even more difficult than this year’s because there won’t be a cash reserve to serve as a cushion. Riley’s first big decision will be naming the next budget chair. Folks say he has a personal affection for the current vice-chair, Rep. Bishop Davidson. However, it’s not a foregone conclusion that Davidson will ascend to the chairmanship. Riley might opt for a “steadier hand.” With his college plan rollout, Bishop showed he’s not averse to a “rip the band-aid off” or “meat-cleaver” approach. And Riley might want someone who won’t add turbulence to an already bumpy ride. Others mentioned: Bill Owen, John Voss, and Darin Chappell.
Education. Riley is a strong ally of the school-choice movement. Kehoe’s tenure has started well for choicers, and, with changes in leadership at the State Board of Education and DESE coming, it could continue. But again, depending on what the foundation formula rewrite task force sends over as a recommendation in December, that could swallow the education debate for the entire next session.
A Bad Parlay
In an NBER working paper, researchers argue that legalized sports betting has a measurable downside for financially vulnerable households. Looking at states that legalized sports betting from 2021–2023, they find legalization reduced household food sufficiency by 2.1% among working-age adults without a college degree. The effect is seasonal, as in NFL-season seasonal!
Missouri was not one of the legalized states studied. But it raises a serious question for Missouri.
Through April, Missouri reported $1.8 billion in sports-wagering handle and about $6.1 million in sports-wagering tax for FY 2026.
· In dismal budget times, folks cheer any tax revenue, but lawmakers should also acknowledge where that tax revenue is coming from.
And
These considerations should probably also be part of the VLT debate.
Costlow Candidacy Cleared
Ethan Colbert reports on the Costlow-Calfo grudge match in St. Charles.
Presiding Judge Chris McDonough suggested after hearing oral arguments on Monday that Max Calfo, a Republican and substitute teacher, was "conflating" different documents to try and reach a conclusion that incumbent Rep. Mike Costlow, R-Dardenne Prairie, should be removed from the ballot.
Mosley Back On?
The Post-Dispatch’s Joe Holleman reports on the uncertain candidacy status of Janay Mosley in House 68. Read it here.
According to the Missouri Secretary of State's office, Mosley's name was withdrawn on June 1, nixing a rematch with incumbent Rep. Kem Smith. On Monday, however, the office's records indicated that Mosley remained as a candidate. The secretary of state's office did not immediately respond to a request for comment…
$5K+ Contributions
Missourians for Fair Governance - $2,000,000 from Missouri Association of REALTORS.
Put Missouri First - $19,685 from Republican National Committee (Washington, DC).
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Matthew Michelson, Karen Englert, and Kevin Stamps.