MOScout Daily Update: The Hits Keep Coming on the Final Stretch of Senate Races - Insider/Outsider Strategy - Quiet A5 Funders and more…
Senate 6: Thomas Punches Rivals
Here’s a mailer from the pro-Lisa Thomas PAC, Missourians for Ethical and Transparent Government.
One veteran: Interesting and maybe savvy use of “identity” politics.
Senate 16: Kelly PAC Hits Hardwick
Esther PAC, which is supporting Hannah Kelly, is hitting Rep. Bill Hardwick for having “voted against Governor Kehoe's ban on taxpayer-funded sex changes for prisoners.” See it here. It’s a 15-second ad.
Do you think convicted felons should get taxpayer funded sex changes? Shady Bill Hardwick does. Hardwick voted against Governor Kehoe's ban on taxpayer-funded sex changes for prisoners. Shady Bill Hardwick sold Missouri conservatives out.
Meanwhile
Hardwick touts the endorsement of Rep. Tara Peters. See it here.
MOScouter Note on “Insider” Vulnerabilities
If Senator Curtis Trent loses his reelection next week, it will likely be because he was successfully cast as a Jefferson City insider to his constituents. You were right to compare his race to Phil Christofanelli’s (who, ironically, is now a lobbyist) who had a tremendous amount of funds for his campaign, but no real support in the district.
The more interesting question is whether Democrats will adapt and deploy a similar line of attack in other competitive races. Jon Patterson and Brad Christ both look vulnerable to the same framing. Both have likely received upwards of 90% of their contributions from lobbyists, trade associations, and corporations. Like many lawmakers, they rarely raise meaningful money from actual constituents, and neither appears to have a large grassroots organization or volunteer base.
Democratic challengers could easily connect their support for Amendment 5 and the MO Scholars program to contributions from Rex Sinquefield, or link their support for legalizing VLTs to related industry donations. In what is shaping up to be a difficult year for Republicans, this “insider” attack could become a real problem if Democrats follow the same playbook used against Trent.
A5’s Mystery Funders
Jack Suntrup has a front-page story this morning about how no one is admitting to funding the Amendment 5 campaign…
Senate 25: Looking to 2028
I know it’s early, but the positioning is already starting for 2028. Here’s the press release for Rep. Hardy Billington, running for Senate 25, Sen. Jason Bean’s seat.
State Representative Hardy Billington announced a strong second quarter of fundraising in his campaign for the Missouri Senate, reporting $42,170 raised from 123 donors and $139,508 cash on hand — more than two years before voters head to the polls in November 2028.
“The man who led the effort to get President Bush to Poplar Bluff and had over 30,000 people come out to see the President just keeps proving he is one of the hardest working Republicans in Missouri!” — Robert Knowdell
· Billington’s donor list included prominent conservative leaders from across Missouri, among them former State Senator Doug Libla of Poplar Bluff, former Missouri House Speaker Todd Richardson, and former Missouri House Speaker Dean Plocher, along with numerous current members of the Missouri House.
Wolff-ism
Former MOSupreme Mike Wolff opines in the KC Star: “Amendment 5 is the heist and Amendment 4 is the getaway car.”
The Part You Don’t See
The Springfield Chamber of Commerce touts its two ribbon cuttings, but notes “the part you don’t see.”
Springfield had two ribbon cuttings to celebrate in July. Keep Supply opened its new downtown headquarters, and Genie Recon marked an expansion on East Pythian Street…
The part you don't see
Neither win happened overnight, and neither happened by accident. The introductions, the incentive work, and the relationships built over months and years are the quiet machinery of economic development. It is not flashy, and it is rarely fast. But it is how a community grows companies that stay, hire, and reinvest.
The ribbon cuttings are the fun part. The work that makes them possible is the whole job.
eMailbag on Shore
Sophie Shore isn’t the future of the party. She’s Harold Hill selling band equipment to unsuspecting townsfolk by yelling “We’ve got trouble right here in River City.” Some of the clients she’s done work with may win, but there isn’t sustainability in outrage politics. If anything, that path will lead Missouri back to being a Democrat led state in the not so distant future.
Lobbyist Registrations
Ron Berry added Dogs for Our Brave.
$5K+ Contributions
Missourians for Fair Governance - $599,995 from Protect Majority Rule Missouri.
Missourians for Fair Governance - $54,367 from Protect Majority Rule Missouri.
Missourians for Fair Governance - $77,377 from Protect Majority Rule Missouri.
Missourians for Fair Governance - $7,500 from Missouri AFL-CIO.
Lori Rook for Missouri - $100,000 from Lori Rook.
Butz STL PAC (pro-Butz) - $20,000 from MCR PAC.
Good Hands PAC (pro-Mitten) - $10,000 from Access MO.
Missourians for a Responsible Budget (pro-Fitzpatrick) - $25,000 from David Steward.
STLCO PAC (pro-Brian Williams) - $25,000 from Build St Louis PAC.
Together KC - $15,000 from Kansas City Royals Baseball Club LLC.
Paladin PAC - $20,000 from J&J Ventures Missouri Gaming (Effingham, IL).
MO Constitutional Conservative Council PAC - $10,000 from Pike Lincoln Values Fund.
Strong and Courageous PAC - $6,000 from Derek Sewell (Oak Point, TX).
AmplifyMO Actions PAC - $10,000 from Lawrence Cohn.
White River Leadership PAC - $10,000 from Rex Sinquefield.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Shanon Hawk, BJ Tanksley, Jack Gamble, Jim Avery, Lacy Clay, and Crystal Brinkley.