MOScout Daily Update: MOScout 1 Month Out Predictions - MATA for Mitten - Affordability Message - The Baum Talks to Butz and more….
1 Month Out: MOScout Forecast
The August primary is four weeks from today. It’s a sprint.
I’ve updated the MOScout 2026 Watch. It now shows all the Senate and House primaries, with hyperlinks to candidate websites, as well as my current predictions.
I plan to update my forecasts each Tuesday from now until Election Day. There are many “toss-ups” at this point. But simply calling a race a “toss-up” seems like a bit of a cop-out. So I’m picking a front-runner in each race.
Find the 2026 Watch page here.
Money Watch
Interesting developments in today’s large contribution list (see below)…
· In Senate 4, Gina Mitten received $40,000 from Safer Families for Missouri. That’s the PAC of the Missouri Association of Trial Attorneys.
· In Senate 18, Rex Sinquefield sent $100,000 to Rep. Ed Lewis’ PAC.
· In Senate 28, Sen. Rusty Black’s PAC, Great Northwest PAC, sent $50,000 to the PAC of Rep. Brad Pollitt.
Senate 4: Mitten B-Roll
On the Gina Mitten campaign YouTube channel there’s a video of Mitten introducing herself. See it here. I’m told there will be a digital buy up this week and shorter edits of this for streaming ads.
· St. Louis is a city with a fighting spirit. We have always fought to earn our freedoms and defend our rights. St. Louis deserves a state senator that won't back down and will fight for us...
· As a young single mom right here in St. Louis, I know what it's like to work hard and still struggle. I started my car with a screwdriver for months because I couldn't afford the part without taking food off my child's plate…
· I spent eight years in the Missouri House where I was the leading Democrat on the investigation of corrupt Governor Eric Greitens resulting in his resignation…
· As your state senator, I will defend your right to legal abortion, fight to fully fund public education, and stand up for working families. We can't say the same about my opponent, Steve Butz, who sides with Republicans, voted to ban all abortions and defund our public schools.
And
It’s very interesting to see what the Mitten campaign has put up on that page. There’s B-roll and there’s clips of Butz speaking at a local debate. The campaign presumably is putting the clips up on a public site so the PAC can download them and use them without coordination.
Affordability: The Message Across the Aisle
Two totally different campaigns from different parts of the political spectrum are hammering the same affordability message. It shows how big that issue is with the electorate these days.
· Bill Baird, Democrat running for Jackson County Executive: Gas, groceries, and child care costs keep rising, and county government is only making the problem worse with skyrocketing property taxes. For too many families, it's getting too hard to stay in their homes.
· Bill Hardwick, Republican running for Senate: Missouri families are struggling with rising costs and no tax relief. But conservative Republican Bill Hardwick is fighting back. Bill Hardwick will fight to lower the cost of living for every working family.
The Dusty Blue Show
I came across this clip of Dusty Blue from back when Justin Sparks was running against JP for speaker. On “The Dusty Blue Show” he was firmly behind Sparks…
Tomorrow is the big day, January 8. Three things I’m asking you guys to personally do between today and tomorrow…
· Call or email your state rep and demand that they vote for Justin Sparks and listen to their constituents back home.
· Second, if you can be at the Capitol tomorrow, I would encourage you to do it. We’re going to be meeting around 9:45 just outside of the Secretary of State’s office, to hear a direct message from Justin Sparks…
· Third, share this post with everyone so that we can get this message out. We the people can have our voices heard.
Why It Matters
Blue’s embrace of the renegade Sparks challenge hints at the kind of senator he might be – a bit of a maverick willing to shake things up.
The Baum Interviews Butz
The mighty Jason Rosenbaum interviewed Rep. Steve Butz, running in Senate 4. See it here.
On state police control
Jason Rosenbaum: “Why is the board operating like this? Why are they basically not listening to any factions of the city government, including more conservative factions in the Board of Aldermen who contend that state control so far has been a complete disaster so far?”
Steve Butz: “So far, it has. I can only hope and intend that it gets better with better players on the team… I knew we would have some serious bumps. I didn’t think it was going to be this dysfunctional. It started with, and I’ve said this publicly many times, I do believe they’ve gotten some bad legal advice from the attorney that they’ve hired…”
On visibility
“I love Senator May, but [residents of Clayton and Shrewsbury] would say, ‘We just don’t see her very much.’ So I think I will be more present. It’s just my style of doing things. I like to meet people in person whenever possible, and I’m going to increase that effort for sure.”
On data centers
“Locally in the city of St. Louis… the city has been negotiating very good deals and really important safeguards for the citizens of St. Louis. And we do have large swaths of formerly commercial — 100% commercial and industrial — land where certainly we have excess water. And now with these closed water loop systems that everybody seems to be knowing about, that’s not an issue… thebig thing for the city, in addition, is they’re not subsidized. And these data centers are going to pay huge additions in property taxes while using virtually no city services. I’m like, this is a win for public schools in St. Louis. This is a win for funding for fire and EMS and police…”
Groundgame Stiffed!
The St. Louis Business Journal reported that “a signature-gathering firm has sued St. Louis developer Jeff Tegethoff and other investors in a Lake of the Ozarks casino project, alleging they left $1.5 million in services unpaid after repeated false promises and deception, including the use of purportedly fabricated wire-transfer screenshots.”
· The federal lawsuit was filed June 5 in U.S. District Court for the Western District of Missouri by Groundgame Political Solutions LLC… alleged it is owed more than $1.5 million for work completed on the effort to place a constitutional amendment on the Nov. 3 statewide ballot to allow a casino at the Lake of the Ozarks…
· The most serious allegations in the new lawsuit involve claims that casino campaign organizers knowingly misrepresented the financial condition of the campaign effort so that Groundgame would continue the petition drive… Groundgame alleged that Tegethoff repeatedly said that as much as $20 million had been committed to the casino campaign. According to the suit, the casino investors promised a $200,000 bonus if the initiative qualified for the ballot, and repeatedly stated that large payments were imminent.
Lobbyist Registrations
Andy Arnold deleted Steady Platform, Inc.
Cassandra Allana Henderson added Regional Arts Commission of St. Louis.
Dan Mehan deleted GreenMet.
$5K+ Contributions
Rural Missouri Values PAC (pro-Ed Lewis) - $100,000 from Rex Sinquefield.
Rocker P Brand PAC (pro-Pollitt) - $50,000 from Great Northwest PAC.
Good Hands PAC (pro-Mitten) - $40,000 from Safer Families for Missouri.
Good Hands PAC - $7,500 from Penn Entertainment (Wyomissing, PA).
Beverly PAC (pro-Jones) - $10,000 from PENN Entertainment Inc. (Wyomissing, PA).
Paladin PAC - $30,000 from J&J Ventures Gaming Missouri, LLC (Effingham IL).
The Leadbelt PAC (pro-Henderson) - $10,000 from Rex Sinquefield.
Brad PAC (pro-Hudson) - $10,000 from Rex Sinquefield.
Legio XIII PAC - $30,000 from J&J Ventures Gaming of Missouri LLC (Effingham, IL).
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $20,000 from David Steward.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $10,000 from Spire Missouri Inc.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $10,000 from Missouri C PAC.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $10,000 from The 1821 PAC.
Vote Yes For Planning and Zoning - $25,000 from Tri-Lakes Board of Realtors.
CN-MO PAC - $25,000 from Southern Glazer's Wine and Spirits of Missouri (Miami, FL).
Protect Election Integrity - $15,000 from Missouri Chamber Advantage.
MPS PAC - $7,500 from Brian Naeger.
MBA Capitol Region PAC - $6,710 from Wood & Huston Bank.
Birthdays
Happy birthday to Fred Kratky and Ryan Hobart.