MOScout Daily Update: A5 Campaign Nears $10M - Chamber Hits Skelton - Endorsements, Ads and more….
Another $3.9M for Pro-A5!
Supporters of the Kehoe tax plan are upping the ante. Yesterday, the Missouri Promise PAC, the pro-A5 committee, reported receiving a monster check of $3.9 million. The check was from “Missouri Action,” a non-profit started this year. That means we’ll likely never know the true source of the money.
· That brings the total large contributions to the campaign committee to $9.6M!
And I assume we’re not done yet…
See their latest ad, “Fairness” here: Amendment Five isn't just about phasing out taxes on paychecks and homes. And it's not just about putting $3,000 back in the pocket of average working families every year. It's also about fairness. We earn that money. We should keep it. We shouldn't be the ones paying for Missouri to be a playground for big tech. That money should stay in our own families, empowering our neighborhoods and our communities.
This morning, Axios has an article about the tax revenue mix of different states. See it here.
Chamber Endorsements
The Missouri Chamber of Commerce released its primary endorsements. Find the full list here. Of note…
Senate 4: Steve Butz
Senate 6: Jake Vogel
Senate 8: Jon Patterson
Senate 10: Mike Deering
Senate 16: Hannah Kelly
Senate 20: Curtis Trent
Senate 28: Brad Pollitt
Senate 32: Ellen Nichols (over incumbent Jill Carter)
Senate 34: Mike Jones
House 56: Steve Baker (over incumbent Michael Davis)
House 139: Sandy Karnes (over incumbent Bob Titus)
House 145: Scott Sattler (over incumbent Bryant Wolfin)
House 154: Travis Smith (over incumbent Lisa Durnell)
And
The Chamber is hitting Ike Skelton in Senate 6. I’m told that Skelton has been polling well.
Access MO Endorsements
Access MO, which advocates for reproductive freedom, including abortion access, released its endorsements. See them here. Of note…
Senate 4: Gina Mitten
Senate 14: John Bowman and Raychel Proudie
House 68: Kem Smith (over challenger Janay Mosley in a rematch)
House 73: Kennedy Moore (in a 4-way to succeed Raychel Proudie)
House 81: Jimmy Lappe (in a 3-way to succeed Steve Butz)
House 83: Ray Reed (over challenger David Dimmitt)
House 99: Tori Schafer (in a 4-way to succeed Ian Mackey)
Ad Rundown
It feels like 2024 all over again with ads talking about China owning farmland, the gas tax, and illegal immigration. I’m really surprised there’s not more on affordability.
· CD-1: Wesley Bell – We’ve seen outside PACs helping Bell. This ad is from his candidate committee. He was our first ever progressive prosecutor. Wesley Bell. He helped over 2,000 non-violent offenders avoid prison through criminal justice reform. Now Wesley Bell is in Congress leading the fight against Donald Trump… And it's Bell who's standing up to corporations who raise costs.
· CD-5: Taylor Burks – For Generations: I was raised on the farm, but the Navy sent me to the South China Sea. Now, Chinese communists are buying up family farms… if China wants our land, they're going to have to pry it [cocks gun] from my cold dead hands.
· Senate 18: Dusty Blue – It’s a short 15-second piece that hits on the gas tax. “Unlike my opponents, I will never vote to increase your gas tax. The government has enough of your money.”See it here.
· Senate 20: Lori Rook – One Simple Reason: This ad, produced by MO Maverick Strategies, has Rook looking into the camera with unflattering pictures of her opponent. “State Senator Curtis Trent has sold you out. He carries more lobbyist bills and takes more lobbyist money than any other senator.”
· Senate 34: Mike Jones – This ad touts Jones’ endorsements from MOFOP and MRL and says he stands with Trump against illegal immigration. See it here. I’m told it’s up on St. Joe broadcast TV as well as KC and St. Joe cable, and streaming across the entire district.
CD-6: Stigall Memo Says They’re Winning
Sam Cooper issued a memo saying that Team Stigall is winning the CD-6 race, aided by stronger fundraising. See the memo here.
Chris Stigall has raised over $500,000 and is putting that money to work. Willett has not matched our campaign spending, and his outside group has not matched ours.
AFP Digital Ads
In the non-committee reports, Americans for Prosperity shows expenditures for digital ads supporting Senate candidates…
· Senate 8 – Jon Patterson – $1,250
· Senate 20 – Curtis Trent – $1,250
· Senate 28 – Brad Pollitt – $8,200
· Senate 34 – Mike Jones – $1,250
Age Verification Law
Missouri Independent reports that Governor Mike Kehoe“will sign legislation Thursday requiring pornography websites to verify that users are adults before allowing them to access sexually explicit content. The bill, which will take effect Aug. 28, applies to commercial websites and social media platforms that knowingly and intentionally publish or distribute content in Missouri.”
According to a recent working paper, these laws aren’t very effective. From the abstract: Since 2023, 25 U.S. states have implemented age verification laws that caused prominent adult websites (including Pornhub) to restrict local access for all users. We study how these restrictions affected browsing activity using individual-level panel data. Access restrictions reduced overall time spent on adult sites by roughly 10%. Specifically, for every 100 hours spent on top adult sites before restrictions, about 50 hours remained accessible at noncompliant sites that never restricted access, 30 hours persisted through VPN-based circumvention, 10 hours were substituted from compliant sites to noncompliant sites, and 10 hours were no longer spent on adult sites.
eMailbag on A5
· The ad says Uninvited guests….what about entities from other states funding a campaign to raise Missouris sales taxes? Those are the uninvited.
· Is Mike Kehoe still big mad about Out of State Special Interests
· Does AIM or anyone else really believe that Republicans in the legislature are going to vote to raise sales taxes? They are all afraid of primaries, especially from the populist right. If Amendment 5 passes, it will be decades, if not longer, before sales taxes go up because no one wants that vote used against them in an election.
Lobbyist Registrations
Trent Ford added Marston Development.
Heath Clarkston, Doug Nelson and Michael Henderson deleted Missouri State High School Activities Association.
$5K+ Contributions
Missouri Promise PAC (pro-A5) - $3,900,000 from Missouri Action.
Missourians for Fair Taxation (anti-A5) - $7,500 from Missourians for Fair Governance.
Missourians for Fair Governance (anti-A4) - $100,000 from We Are Missouri.
Heart of Missouri PAC (pro-Skelton) - $50,000 from Mid America Carpenters Regional Council MO-KS PAC.
Make Jefferson County Great Again PAC (pro-Avery) - $150,000 from Mid America Carpenters Regional Council MO-KS PAC.
Butz STL PAC - $10,000 from Anheuser Busch Companies.
Kampeter Conservative PAC - $5,500 from We the People Priorities PAC.
Legio XIII PAC - $50,000 from J&J Ventures Gaming of Missouri LLC (Effingham, IL).
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $50,000 from MOCS Action.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $20,000 from Anheuser Busch Companies.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $8,000 from MBA Ozark Region PAC.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $8,000 from MBA Mark Twain Region PAC.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $8,000 from MBA Pony Express Region PAC.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $8,000 from MBA River Heritage Region PAC.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $8,000 from MBA Capitol Region PAC.
HALO PAC - $15,000 from Rex Sinquefield.
HALO PAC - $15,000 from Heartland Area Land Owners.
Unite Here Tip Missouri State and Local Fund - $15,000 from UNITE HERE State & Local Fund (New York, NY).
Lake of the Ozarks Community Gaming - $20,000 from Jeff Tegethoff.
Lake of the Ozarks Community Gaming - $105,000 from AET 2021 Irrevocable Trust.
MO Republican Attorneys for Civil Justice PAC - $20,000 from Gary Robb.
We the People Priorities PAC - $31,000 from Casteel PAC.
Missouri Right to Life Political Action Committee - $13,000 from Robert J Landgraf.
Parents for Missouri Public Schools - $20,000 from State Power Fund (Youngstown, OH).
AmplifyMO Actions PAC - $10,000 from David Roberts.
Citizens for Proposition 1 - $7,500 from Civic Progress Jefferson City Chamber of Commerce.
Birthdays
Happy birthday to Ron Fitzwater, Jeffrey Brooks, and Don Ruzicka.