MOScout Weekender: Team Brattin Confident - Lobbyists’ Predictions - Eigel Fine and more…
The Deluge at the End
One reader sent in this picture of mailers, all received on the same day, in Senate 16…
CD-5: Team Brattin Confident
According to a new polling memo (see it here), Rick Brattin leads Taylor Burk by 30% to 15% with 48% still undecided. Brattin has led by similar margins in the two previous campaign polls: +18% and +16%.
· He has a 3-1 lead with Trump voters who make up nearly 50% of the vote and a 6-1 lead with Christian voters who make up nearly 20% of the vote.
· Rick Brattin has led in EVERY public, campaign, and IE group polls during the entire campaign.
McGee Contribution Controversy
The Kansas City Business Journal reports on a suspicious money trail.
A political action committee backing Jackson County Legislator DaRon McGee received a $50,000 contribution — its largest-ever — from a St. Louis campaign organization earlier this year. The next month, that St. Louis organization received contributions totaling $50,000 — its most ever from a single donor — tied to a Kansas developer that had led a pitch to build housing on Jackson County property. Legislators briefly considered the housing proposal in February, before dismissing it a week later, after several officials voiced concerns about fast-tracking a valuable 99-year arrangement with Olathe developer Pate-Campbell Properties.
· The outsized contributions and housing proposal now are central to a political imbroglio that has rocked the Jackson County Legislature, and led the county sheriff to refer the matter for an outside investigation…
Ethics Fine for Eigel
Post-Dispatch reports that “ethics regulators have fined Republican Bill Eigel $2,000 for campaign finance violations dating to his unsuccessful run for governor in 2024. In a decision made public Friday, the Missouri Ethics Commission said Eigel, who is running in Tuesday’s primary for St. Charles County executive, accepted too much money in anonymous contributions and included more than 100 duplicate contributions in his campaign reports.”
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Predictions
I asked lobbyists, “What's your best prediction for Tuesday's election?”
· Sophie Shore is the campaign consultant you want on your team going forward.
· A5 goes down by double digits; A4 goes down by double digits; Sophia Shore goes over .500 in her races; Eigel and Zimmerman win
· A shitty Senate in 2027
· A5 goes down by 15 and A4 goes down by less. If you want to know how to get the voters to support you on a tax issue watch Parks/Soil. Give voters something real and meaningful and they will respond. Sophie is going to be the star winning at least three races on the Senate side. It's amazing how lazy the consultants are these days. They have all the data, financing and resources and they are going to get their asses kicked.
· Bad news for actual conservative Republicans.
· Lots of wild and surprising results. Anyone who can tell you what the electorate is going to do right now is taking a wild guess.
· Wesley disposes of Cori once and for all, bucking the national trend of DSA success — thanks more to her baggage than to AIPAC.
· The results of Amendment 5 are going to cost Rex even more money in the future.
· My best prediction is that Eigel runs away with the Saint Charles County Executive Race, and after Amendment 4, 5, Vogel, and potentially Deering loses, Eigel puts pressure on Kehoe every week until a 2028 rematch is determined. Eigel would be Governor right now if not for Ashcroft, and if the August primary was a few weeks later in August in 2024.
· The sun will rise again for both winners and losers. Some people will take it well, others will not. And we will gather again and do it all over in 2 short years.
Who Won the Week?
We’ll find out Tuesday night…
$5K+ Contributions
Sharpe For Missouri - $20,000 from Greg Sharpe.
Missourians for Fair Taxation - $26,250 from Missourians for Fair Governance.
Missourians for Fair Taxation - $6,262 from Missourians for Fair Governance.
Missourians for Fair Taxation - $7,500 from Missourians for Fair Governance.
We Are Missouri - $50,097 from Missouri AFL-CIO.
Eigel for Missouri - $15,000 from Believe in Life and Liberty - BILL PAC.
Committee To Elect Steve Ehlmann - $10,000 from Real Conservatives for St Charles County PAC.
DougPAC - $25,000 from Local Union #124 Voluntary PAC.
Common Sense Coalition for Pollard - $10,000 from Lance Pollard.
Common Sense Coalition for Pollard - $10,300 from Lance Pollard.
Nexus PAC - $7,680 from Missouri & Northern Arkansas Railroad Company, Inc. (West Henrietta, NY).
MO Beverage PAC - $20,000 from The Coca-Cola Company (Atlanta, GA).
Jackson County United - $20,000 from Kenneth and Cynthia McClain.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Bill Reiboldt and Shannon Weber.
Sunday: Dawn Nicklas, Mike Talboy, Zac Sweets, Jim Viebrock, Tom Todd, and Kim Gardner.
Condolences
To Jill Schupp on the passing of her mother, Joan Seltzer. See the obituary here.