MOScout Daily Update: Hudson for Floor Leader? - 15 Years of A5 Polling - Keller on Eigel - Pump Price Watch and more…
Hudson for Floor
Word is that Sen. Brad Hudson has been getting good receptivity in his preliminary outreach and will likely be jumping into the Senate Floor Leader race.
He’d be joining Sen. Nick Schroer as the only announced candidates (so far). But following Sen. Curtis Trent’s loss, the situation is clearly “fluid.”
Why A5 Died
I’ve been writing a column for the St. Louis Business Journal for about twenty years. Last week I wrote about the defeat of Amendment 5, blaming its loss on lack of specifics. Read it here.
I initially thought this approach was clever: give voters the general concept and fill in the details later. That would, I believed, deprive opponents of a specific plan to attack. Instead, the absence of those details became the proposal’s central vulnerability… it became fatal when combined with a couple of other avoidable political mistakes… Opponents, led by the Realtors, stepped into the uncertainty, giving concerns a simple name: the “Everything Tax.”
But one MOscouter sent me polls suggesting that it wasn’t about the campaign or the vagueness. It’s the idea.
Attached are two polling slides illustrating that Missouri voters reject the core concept on its face, regardless of the level of detail provided.
April 2026 Poll: A simple summary of the A5 core initiative shows it started 11.8% behind, indicating foundational voter rejection.
2011 Poll: When a detailed version of this plan was proposed by the Let Voters Decide, the initiative similarly started at a catastrophic 39% support.
These two polls, spanning 15 years and conducted by both Democratic and Republican pollsters, reach the same conclusion. The idea is DOA for voters.
And
I’ve been hearing a bit of chatter about how the Amendment 5 vote was so disastrous that it will spell trouble for Governor Mike Kehoe in 2028. It was disastrous. But there will be many twists and turns between now and then, and many other issues will be front of mind.
eMailbag on Another Data Center Warning?
The one race you haven’t reported on. Popular longtime Montgomery County Presiding Commissioner Ryan Poston was defeated. He led the county effort to approve two hyper-scale data centers currently under construction along Hwy 70.
Keller on Eigel’s Political Athleticism
Republican consultant Gregg Keller on Mark Reardon’s radio show says that Bill Eigel’s political career isn’t necessarily over.
“Even though he’s lost two races now, he really was, in many ways, the man meeting the moment. This guy was ahead of the MAGA curve. He was MAGA before MAGA even really hit the scene. He really believes this stuff. He’s a tremendous personal speaker, has a lot of charisma… Do I think other people’s political careers were ended the other night? Yes. I’m not so sure about Bill Eigel, just because he is a true believer. He really believes this stuff, and he actually is a very good political athlete.”
Pump Price Watch
Things are not as bad in Missouri as they are across the nation, but the sticky high gas prices and the cul-de-sac Iran war should be making Missouri Republicans nervous about November.
Follow-Up on Byrnes Looking for Work
One reader reminded me that Rep. Tricia Byrnes’ post on looking for work as a government affairs executive could run afoul of the law if she were to pursue it. Missouri statute says that No member of the general assembly or the governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state, state treasurer or state auditor shall… solicit any registered lobbyist for any compensated or noncompensated position, with a hiring date beginning after such person is no longer an elected official, while such person holds office.
And: No individual or business entity shall solicit a member of the general assembly to become employed by that individual or business entity as a legislative lobbyist while such member is holding office as a member of the general assembly.
Haynes GoFundMe
Trent Watson has organized this GoFundMe following the passing of Chip Haynes, husband of Liz Weber-Haynes. See it here.
Chip Haynes was a devoted husband, brother, uncle, and friend whose adventurous spirit and generous heart touched everyone around him. As the family navigates the difficult days following his passing, this fundraiser has been created to help retire unresolved medical expenses and to establish an education fund for his great-nieces and nephews he loved so much. Chip poured his energy into caring for others, whether through his work, his cooking, or the simple joy he found in time spent with family. Your support will not only ease the financial burdens left behind, but will carry forward his legacy of kindness, loyalty, and love for the next generation.
Lobbyist Registrations
Catalyst added United Surgical Partners International.
Jay Reichard added Arnold Development LLC.
Chad William Briesacher deleted MO Tax Relief Now.
$5K+ Contributions
MO Maverick PAC - $10,000 from The Rowdy PAC.
Values First PAC (pro-Byrnes) - $7,500 from MO Majority PAC.
Values First PAC - $7,500 from Missouri C PAC.
Values First PAC - $7,500 from Missouri AG PAC.
Values First PAC - $7,500 from Missouri Growth PAC.
Values First PAC - $7,500 from Conservative Leaders of Missouri.
Rocker P Brand PAC (pro-Pollitt) - $7,046 from Rural MO Values PAC.
Protect Majority Rule Missouri - $15,000 from ULLICO Management Company (Silver Spring, MD).
People Not Politicians - $10,000 from Brian McInerney.
AGC of MO PAC - $9,600 from Emery Sapp & Sons.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Rep. Bruce Sassmann, and Doug Healy.