MOScout Daily Update: Prediction Markets Eating Sports Betting? - New Ingle PAC - Royals Deal - Deaton to Liberty? and more…

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Are Prediction Markets Unregulated Sports Betting?

This article from Marquette University’s David Krause says that sports contracts now account for 80% of prediction-market activity, meaning that prediction market platforms basically run a parallel sportsbook market.

Krause argues that “identical mechanics do not necessarily produce identical economic functions” and sports contracts should be treated more like gambling and remain subject to state regulation.

For Missouri, the question is less academic than fiscal. The two transactions can be economically almost identical (for example, betting $100 on whether the Chiefs win) but one is taxed and regulated by Missouri while the other is untaxed under the guise of a federally regulated financial trade.

·       Kalshi is represented by Jay Hahn and Ryan DeBoef in Jefferson City.

A6 Legal Ping-Pong

The Post-Dispatch reports that Circuit Judge Daniel Green“could rule as early as Wednesday whether top state officials are illegally attempting to torpedo a ballot initiative designed to make it harder for lawmakers to overturn citizen-approved changes to state law.”

·       The Missouri Independent reports that “a court filing from Hoskins’ attorneys in the Amendment 6 case is the first time he has admitted the proposal would qualify for the ballot if he had not found other reasons to block it.”

Meanwhile

Yes on Amendment 6 was formed.  It’s a campaign committee to support the passage of A6.  Its treasurer is Mike Pridmore.

New Ingle PAC

Summit Leadership PAC was formed.  It’s in support of Rep. Keri Ingle, who is running for Senate 8 against Speaker Jon Patterson.  Its treasurer is Judy Morgan, and its deputy treasurer is Patrick Rowland.

This is interesting because there’s already a pro-Ingle PAC called KERI PAC, with the same treasurer and deputy treasurer.  KERI PAC had $136,462 cash on-hand in its July report.

·       Why two PACs?  It’s impossible to know, but sometimes campaigns prefer to have positive ads and mailers coming from an easily identified source (like “KERI PAC”), and the negative attacks on opponents coming from a committee named with a bit more distance from the candidate (like “Summit Leadership”).

MSMA Fundys

I wrote yesterday about the Missouri State Medical Association putting $1.5 million into two PACs.

They’ll be hosting fundraisers at their headquarters (113 Madison) during Veto Session…

·       House Reps. Bennie Cook, Becky Laubinger, Tara Peters, and Melissa Schmidt, and House candidate Stephanie Goodin.

·       Senate candidates: Sam Alexander, Bill Hardwick, JP, and Melanie Stinnett.

And

Don’t forget to send me your Veto Session fundraisers.  I’ll be compiling a comprehensive list.

KCBJ: Royals Deal ‘*!%# Nuts’

The Kansas City Business Journal says it “shared copies of the city's stadium terms Monday with sports economists and municipal finance analysts… sources found some parts of the Royals deal inexplicable from a city standpoint and others poised to inflate public costs beyond the city's base $600 million offer. One economist called a particular provision ‘(expletive) nuts.’”

·       Kansas City intends to support $510 million in Royals stadium bonds over multiple tranches while also providing an additional $90 million from other sources for on- and off-site infrastructure work. Missouri would contribute $540 million, so the city and state together would fund $1.14 billion, or 60%, of stadium costs. The Royals would pay the $760 million balance.

MAP Scores Show Some Gains

Press release: The Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (DESE) presented preliminary statewide 2025-26 Missouri Assessment Program (MAP) results at the August State Board of Education meeting. Initial findings reveal modest improvement in English language arts (ELA), government, mathematics, and science across both grade-level and high school end-of-course (EOC) assessments.

Highlights include:

·       Grade 6 mathematics, which increased by three points to 48.9%

·       Grade 8 science, which increased more than four points to 43.9%

·       English II, which increased more than five points to 58.4%; and

·       Biology, which increased over three points to 40.6%

New Mosley Committee

Sen. Angela Mosleyterminated her campaign committee for St. Louis County Executive and sent the remaining funds - $11,421 – to a new candidate committee, Citizens to Elect Angela Mosley LLC.  It says she’s seeking statewide office.

People on the Move

·       Valarie Moseley was appointed as the next director of the Missouri Department of Corrections (DOC). Moseley's appointment will become effective October 1. She has served as the DOC deputy director since December 2023.

·       Eric Crinnian has joined Missouri Alliance for Animal Legislation (MAAL) as deputy executive director.  From his bio: “He obtained a record civil rights settlement in a case where a Missouri police officer shot and killed a deaf and blind Shih Tzu.”

·       Alisa Nelson has joined the Missouri School Boards’​ Association as Director of Communications.  She was a longtime news director of Missourinet.

·       Rumor is that former Rep. Dirk Deaton will be joining Liberty Utilities in a government affairs capacity.

eMailbag on Foley

Trevor Foley is a great choice! He has some big shoes to fill (figuratively and literally), but Trevor was part of a core group that transformed DOC into a topnotch agency and brings a wealth of state budget knowledge to the position. 

$5K+ Contributions

American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $10,000 from James Bennett.

Missouri Alliance PAC (pro-Patterson) - $6,000 from Bootheel Values PAC.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $30,000 from Political Action Committee for Health – HEALTHPAC.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $10,000 from Political Action Committee for Health – HEALTHPAC.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $25,000 from Jason Smith for Congress.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $10,000 from Charter Communications.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $10,000 from Putting People First PAC.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $9,000 from Citizens for Brendan Webber.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $5,500 from Friends Of Lane Roberts.

Missouri Leadership Forum - $15,000 from Drury Development Corporation.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Tim O’Connell, Donna Pfautsch, and Connie Cunningham.