MOScout Daily Update: PENN Checks - MSMA $$$ to Stinnett - Ballots Mailed - Libertarian Watch and more…
PENN Checks
In just the last week, we’ve seen PENN Entertainment Inc send a flurry of checks focused on senators, possible future senators, as well as House leadership.
· $10,000 – AshPAC – Rep. Ashley Aune.
· $10,000 - DougPac – Sen. Doug Beck.
· $10,000 – Forward PAC – Rep. Betsy Fogle.
· $10,000 – Brad PAC – Sen. Brad Hudson.
· $10,000 – Keri PAC – Rep. Keri Ingle.
· $10,000 – Good Hands PAC – Sen.-elect Gina Mitten.
· $10,000 – Northland Forward – Sen. Maggie Nurrenbern.
· $10,000 – Missouri Leadership PAC – Rep. Alex Riley.
· $15,000 – Homefront PAC – Sen. Stephen Webber.
The casinos are prepping for a return to the battle over legalizing video lottery terminals. Their political contributions have been dwarfed so far this cycle by J & J Ventures which is seeking to eventually operate the machines in Missouri.
MSMA Sends $100K to Stinnett PAC
I’d previously reported on the Missouri State Medical Association funding two new PACs with $750,000 each.
Over the weekend, we saw a little action from one of them, as it sent a $100,000 check to Heart of SGF PAC, a PAC supporting Rep. Melanie Stinnett in her Senate 30 bid.
Last session, Stinnett sponsored HB 3010 dealing with “prior authorization” was a big fight in the Capitol. MSMA supported it, but was largely stymied by opposition from insurance companies.
Senate 30 is considered the most competitive Senate race this cycle. Republican Stinnett is facing Democrat Rep. Betsy Fogle to determined who succeeds termed Sen. Lincoln Hough.
And
Also sending Stinnett a big check over the weekend: Republican uber-donor Rex Sinquefield, sending $100,000 as well.
JwJ Hitting Doors
In the non-committee expenditure reports, Missouri Jobs With Justice Voter Action reports spending money on staff salaries and literature in several legislative races. See the report here. Those being supported…
· Senate 8 – Keri Ingle.
· Senate 30 – Betsy Fogle.
· House 44 – Bekki Brewer.
· House 104 – Tara Murray.
· House 106 – Jewel Kelly.
What It Means
It’s interesting to see House 44 and House 104 on their list. Neither is on my PowerRankings of possible flips.
House 44 is a heavy GOP district, and House 104 is solid as well, if not overwhelming.
Libertarian Watch
Three of the races on my House watch list (Brad Christ – House 96, Phil Oehlerking – House 100 and Ben Keathley – House 101) are “three-way races,” with Libertarian candidates.
The general heuristic is that Libertarians will draw votes away from Republicans (and Greens will draw votes away from Democrats).
The question is whether their impact could actually matter in a tight race.
A couple of examples from 2022…
House 101
Republican Ben Keathley … 52.6%
Democrat Melissa Greenstein… 46.2%
Libertarian Jeff Coleman … 1.2%
House 105
Republican Adam Schwadron… 49.3%
Democrat Cindy Berne… 48.4%
Libertarian Michael Carver… 2.2%
End of the Map Controversy?
With county clerks having mailed ballots to overseas citizens serving in the military, could this be the end of the redistricting saga?
· One politico says it’s now “too late to change the ballots. IMO this is why the 8th Circuit hasn’t ruled yet. That 45-day rule for military and overseas ballots is a federal requirement.”
Brandom Passes
Former Rep. Ellen Brandom has passed away. See her obituary here.
· A devoted wife, mother, grandmother, and public servant, Ellen spent the majority of her life in Sikeston, Missouri, where she built a legacy defined by leadership, generosity, and steadfast commitment to her community…
· For 32 years, Ellen and Rick owned and operated Hutter Oil Company in Sikeston, building a respected business rooted in integrity and hard work. After her business career, Ellen answered a new calling: public service. She served as the State Representative for Missouri’s 160th District from 2007 to 2013, where she was especially proud of her work as Vice Chair of Economic Development, championing initiatives that strengthened opportunities for families and businesses across the state.
National Headwinds for GOP
Getting passed around was this NBC poll as folks try to decipher how strong the national environment is for the Dems.
A couple of nuggets…
· The Democratic advantage is anti-Trump, not pro-Democrat. Democrats lead the congressional ballot 50%–45%, even though their party is viewed more negatively than the GOP. 43% describe their vote as opposition to Trump; only 27% call it support.
· Republicans have lost the economy. Democrats now lead 38%–31% on inflation; that’s a complete reversal from four years ago. 55% say Trump’s policies have hurt the economy, versus 26% who say they helped. This is the national undertow facing Republicans in Missouri’s swing House districts.
Hawley Not a Prez Candidate
The Post-Dispatch’s Joe Holleman reports that U.S. Senator Josh Hawley has “put an end to media speculation that a White House bid in 2028 was on his agenda.”
· "I have no intention of doing so, period,” Hawley told the Washington Examiner earlier this week, when asked about a 2028 presidential bid.
GoFundMe for Laid-off KC Star Reporters
It’s a sign of the times that there’s a GoFundMe for laid off journalists from the Kansas City Star. See it here.
Help Wanted
Missouri Department of Transportation seeks Governmental Relations Intern. The governmental relations intern performs routine entry-level liaison activities between the department and public officials through the exchange of information regarding proposed legislation affecting the department… $18.94 - $21.46 Per hour.
$5K+ Contributions
Vote Yes on Amendment 6 - $225,000 from Preserve Middle Class America, Inc.
Heart of SGF PAC (pro-Stinnett) - $100,000 from Rex Sinquefield.
Heart of SGF PAC - $100,000 from Patients First PAC.
AshPac (pro-Aune) - $10,000 from PENN Entertainment Inc. (Wyomissing PA).
Northland Forward (pro-Nurrenbern) - $10,000 from PENN Entertainment, Inc. (Wyomissing, PA).
Citizens for Chesterfield Aquatic Center - $36,000 from The Staenberg Group.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Sen. Tony Luetkemeyer, Kari Hoelscher, Joe Driskill, and Roman LeBlanc.