MOScout Daily Update: Blue Wave Believers and Deniers - Bailey Exits FBI - Schmitt Veepstakes and more…
Blue Wave Talk
When it comes to a potential “blue wave” hitting Missouri, there are two competing narratives right now among folks following Missouri politics.
· Believers: You have to be willfully ignorant to not see the conditions are ripe for a big Dem year. Gas prices over $4, voters disdain for incumbents as shown by Amendment 4 and 5 losing by historic margins, Trump underwater in GOP strongholds.
· Deniers: We’ve heard this talk before. In the words of one Hallway Index participant, “We have too much history to suggest Democrats will muck this up.” In the Obama wave of 2008, House Dems picked up 3 seats. In the 2018 first Trump backlash midterm, Dems picked up 1. This group thinks Dems will have an okay year – 3 or 4 seats – but nothing that amounts to a wave.
But
The biggest difference between today and 2008 is how much more real estate Republicans have to defend. In 2008, Dems held 71 seats. Now they have 52. The GOP supermajority is stretched. And those frontier seats are harder to hold – especially if GOP voter enthusiasm wanes.
Axios: Schmitt in the Veepstakes
Axios says that U.S. Senator Eric Schmitt is a potential running mate for J.D. Vance in 2028. Read the blurb here.
We hear the VP views Schmitt, 51, as trustworthy, intelligent, articulate and a deft political operator. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is obviously the Trump favorite for Vance's #2, but he doesn't seem eager for that role.
PCF Eyes PBM Reform
Patients Come First released its national healthcare survey, including separate Missouri results. See it here. From the memo…
About 73 percent say they have not heard of Pharmacy Benefits Managers. Nearly 88 percent of respondents strongly or somewhat agree with the statement that “Pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) should face greater oversight if their business practices make it harder for patients to access medications.”
But
Late last session, when a PBM compromise broke down, an exasperated Sen. Doug Beck on the Senate floor vowed he was done with the issue: I just want to be clear with everybody in this chamber. There was a deal that was made and there was language that was acceptable to everybody, and then that language got pulled. So… for the next two years, there’s going to be no PBM stuff going through this chamber. I’m tired of talking about the subject. We literally had this ready to go, and the other side backed out… I’m just saying that that is off for the next two years.
Tennessee’s Lesson
There’s a new paper entitled Persistent Problems, Repeated Reforms: Explaining Child Welfare Reform Durability in Tennessee. It’s not peer-reviewed yet. But it’s interesting. Using audits, court records, abuse investigations, and foster-care cases, the study examined Tennessee’s repeated efforts to reform its child-welfare system from 1996 to 2025. It found that many changes remained in place, but staff shortages, too few foster homes, and technology problems kept them from working consistently. And many of the same failures returned.
Why It Matters
Governor Mike Kehoe has created a task force to propose new child-welfare standards. But the state faces a 40% frontline turnover rate and has foster or relative homes for only about 55 of every 100 children.
The lesson from Tennessee: New rules won’t fix a system that lacks the staff and foster homes to carry them out.
Bailey Exits FBI
Andrew Bailey resigned from his position as co-deputy director of the FBI.
The New York Times reported that “people familiar with the inner workings of the agency have described the arrangement between Kash Patel, the director, and his two deputy directors — Mr. Bailey and Christopher Raia, a longtime F.B.I. agent and manager — as rocky. Mr. Patel and Mr. Bailey did not get along, and often went long stretches without speaking to each other…”
Why It Matters
Bailey still has a PAC here in Missouri. Liberty and Justice PAC’s July report showed $555,000 cash on-hand. Folks were already speculating that Bailey might return to Missouri’s political arena. “He primaries Wasinger. Mark it.”
Ed Martin Watch
It seems that Ed Martin has found his new gig. He’s started Firearm Rights for Americans. Millions of Americans live under federal or state firearm disabilities because of convictions or other events in their past. Firearm Rights for Americans exists to help deserving Americans understand the law, tell their stories, and pursue lawful restoration of their Second Amendment rights.
Jackson County Reassessment Audit Still Alive
The State Auditor’s audits-in-progress page has added “Jackson County Assessor and Reassessment Process.” It is not a new audit. It appears to be the unfinished portion of Auditor Scott Fitzpatrick’s review launched in 2023. His office released its report on the appeals process in April, but said a separate report on the underlying reassessment was still coming.
That remaining report goes to the central question: Did the county and its contractors perform the required physical inspections on roughly 200,000 residential properties whose assessments increased more than 15%? Fitzpatrick went to court last year to obtain the inspection data. The new listing suggests that long-delayed work is active again.
New PAC
Empowered PAC was formed. It’s in support of Dan Kinate. He’s the Democrat running against Rep. Chris Brown in House 16. It’s one of the battleground districts this cycle.
$5K+ Contributions
Stop the Ban - $800,000 from American Civil Liberties Union Foundation, Inc. (New York, NY).
Stop the Ban - $10,000 from Karen Handelman.
742 PAC (pro-Myers) - $15,000 from Rex Sinquefield.
Missouri Right to Liberty PAC (pro-Cupps) - $10,000 from Another Viceroy PAC.
Citizens for a Better Government - $132,020 from House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc.
Voters for Integrity - $100,000 from House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc.
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $30,000 from Centene Corporation.
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Cheyenne International LLC (Grover, NC).
Committee for Quality Healthcare - $5,495 from ATGS PAC.
Respect MO Voters Campaign - $52,347 from Carol Lippman.
Prop L Supporters - $25,000 from Brock Bukowsky.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Erin Brower, Brad Jones, and Benjamin Terrell.