MOScout Daily Update: SCOMO Puts Referendum and A6 on Ballot - Details on Ross Arrest - AAM in House 105 - Money and Lobbying and more...
SCOMO Puts HB1 on Hold, Green Lights A6
The Missouri Supreme Court ordered the referendum on the redistricting bill placed on the November ballot, and ordered the “old” congressional districts to remain in place until that vote’s outcome.
It also ordered Amendment 6, an initiative petition aimed at restricting the legislature’s ability to overturn voter-approved changes to statutes or the constitution, on the November ballot. It would require a hefty 80% vote to do that.
· See the referendum decision here.
· The third suit, dealing with the legality of some signatures, was ruled moot.
The rulings – unanimous and immediate (arguments were just heard the day before) were a slapdown of Secretary of State Denny Hoskins’ attempt to muscle up the role of his office.
From the referendum decision: The secretary devotes a significant portion of his briefing to discussing the confusion, expense, and practical difficulties that may result from not utilizing the congressional redistricting in HB 1 for the November 2026 election. Besides being irrelevant to the secretary’s sole basis for declaring the referendum petition insufficient, these arguments are particularly misplaced given the secretary’s delay created the confusion, expense, and practical difficulties of which he complains...Given these undisputed facts, the secretary’s arguments about confusion, expense, and practical difficulties are wholly unpersuasive. Perhaps worse, these arguments fundamentally misunderstand the status of HB 1 pending the referendum vote. HB 1 is not the law and has never been the law. There is only one valid congressional redistricting in effect—the congressional redistricting the General Assembly established in 2022.
SuperLawyer Chuck Hatfield had a pretty great day, going undefeated. (Raise those rates, Chuck!)
Missouri Attorney General Catherine Hanaway said she’d pursue a federal appeal and issued an odd, hyperventilating statement. “Never before in American history has a court overturned a congressional map after a primary and before a general election. This unprecedented decision clearly violates federal law and has thrust our state into a full‑fledged constitutional crisis,” said General Hanaway. “Our office will move immediately to seek relief from SCOTUS. We are confident that the federal courts will not allow every Missouri voter to be disenfranchised—which is what today’s decision does.”
· “Full‑fledged constitutional crisis?” “Every Missouri voter to be disenfranchised?” Huh?
What It Means
· Obviously, it’s great news for Congressman Emanuel Cleaver. It buys him three more terms. Republicans will redraw in 2030 and Missouri will go 7-1 or perhaps even 8-0 then.
· Democrat Fred Wellman’s long-shot bid to oust Congresswoman Ann Wagner gets much less long-shot. With Trump in the dumps, rising prices and a meandering agenda focused on DC construction projects, CD-2 gets more interesting.
· Another headwind for House Republicans as A6 will add more fuel to Democratic turnout, and this nugget is causing consternation for GOPers as well: “I had heard a rumor that the DLCC targets wouldn’t really be funded unless the referendum was on the ballot.”
Shaking Their Fists at Tyrants in Black Robes
· Sen. Rick Brattin, who saw his ticket to DC get pinched with this decision: “I’m not surprised that a liberal activist majority on the Missouri Supreme Court has handed Democrats a decision they desperately needed in their effort to help national Democrats retake the US House of Representatives, while also effectively invalidating a primary election that was held in accordance with a legal decision these same judges handed down… It is my hope that this rogue decision is immediately appealed to the United State Supreme Court.”
· James Harrison Twitter: As people know, I have long criticized the Missouri Plan. In every state it produces more liberal and less capable judges. Today’s MO Supreme Court decision invalidating the congressional map is another reminder we are stuck with a libtard court.
But
This wasn’t a liberal decision. It was a unanimous decision. From a majority Republican-appointed court, written by a very conservative justice.
And although someday electing supreme court justices may come to Missouri, now is not the time...
· Voters just rebuked the legislature’s “smarter-than-thou” attitude with two stunning lopsided results in August.
· Kansas just rejected a proposal to elect judges.
· This action isn’t an outrage to normal Missourians. This redistricting plot was hatched from DC. It was entirely a political insiders’ game. Missourians were never clamoring for a mid-decade redistricting.
Senate 30: 30-Day Reports
Melanie Stinnett: $480,225 COH.
· PAC: $341,863 COH.
Betsy Fogle: $341,798 COH.
· PAC: $401,186 COH.
What It Means
Both these candidates will have plenty of money to reach voters and get their message out. Eight weeks is a ton of time, but given the district and the political environment, Fogle would be considered the favorite at this time.
House 161: Ross Filing
The charges were outlined in a court filing against Thomas Ross. Read it here. One lobbyist quipped, “It’s not Bukowski, but it’s a pretty good read.”
On Friday. July 31. 2026, the FBI provided C.S. with a covert audio recording device to be used during a meeting with ROSS later that morning. The meeting between ROSS and C.S. on July 31, 2026, was conducted at ROSS’s residence, located at 2607 South Minnesota Avenue, Joplin. Missouri; a location within the Western District Of Missouri Approximately 1 hour and 18 minutes into the conversation, C.S. told ROSS that he still had "the bag and addies" if ROSS wanted him to "try." ROSS agreed and told C.S. that Secker had been carrying a small purse and C.S. suggested that they could call in an anonymous tip that Secker had drugs in her car. C.S. then asked ROSS if that was something he still wanted done, to which, ROSS responded with "if you can pull it off...pull it off"
House 105: AAM Stepping Up Ground Game
Abortion Action Missouri’s September calendar now has four dedicated “NO on 3 and YES on Cat Clayton” canvasses in St. Charles. AAM is explicitly using its abortion-ballot-measure field operation to turn out voters for Clayton against Rep. Colin Wellenkamp.
Money, Lobbying, and Power
A paper on “Money, Lobbying, and Political Power” (see it here) makes a number of interesting observations. Two that jumped out…
Buying Access: “Kalla and Broockman (2016) provide unusually strong causal evidence on access. In a randomized field experiment involving 191 congressional offices, a political organization sought meetings for constituents and randomly varied whether offices were told the prospective attendees were campaign donors. When donor status was revealed, senior policymakers were available three to four times as often. That does not show that donors received the policy outcome they wanted. It shows that donor status causally affected access to senior officials in that experiment.”
Relationships are Currency: “Government experience is valuable. Someone who spent ten years writing telecommunications policy knows statutes, agencies, technical disputes, and procedural pathways. Preventing that person from ever using the expertise outside government would waste human capital and make public service less attractive. But expertise is not the only thing former officials possess. They possess relationships.
“Blanes i Vidal, Draca, and Fons-Rosen (2012) studied lobbyists with prior experience in U.S. senators’ offices. When the connected senator left office, the lobbyist’s generated revenue fell by 24 percent. The decline was immediate and persistent, and larger when the departing senator had greater seniority or more powerful committee assignments.”
Hummel and McKenna Reelected
Jake Hummel and Ryan McKenna were elected to continue as President and Secretary-Treasurer at the AFL-CIO State Convention in St. Louis this week. It’s a four-year term.
People on the Move
· The Missouri Western State University Board of Governors has announced that Dr. Lenny Klaver will serve as the University’s seventh president… Dr. Klaver has served as president of North Central Missouri College since May 2016.
· Missouri Soybeans is pleased to welcome Abby Shaffer to the team full time as the new communications coordinator – research and innovation. In her new role, Shaffer will help communicate the research, agronomy and innovation investments Missouri soybean farmers are making to advance the industry and improve opportunities for producers.
Lobbyist Registrations
Strategic Capitol Consulting added US Strategic Metals.
Haydin Brady added University Health Truman Medical Centers.
David Winton, Matthew Thompson, and Jessica Petrie deleted Decoding Dyslexia MO, The Repertory Theatre of St. Louis, Servos LLC, and Kansas City Repertory Theatre.
Henrio Thelemaque and Maddie L'Ecuyer deleted Decoding Dyslexia MO, and Hispanic Chamber of Commerce of Metro St. Louis.
Henrio Thelemaque deleted Missouri Retailers Association.
Matthew Thompson deleted Kids Read Now, Inc.
Garrett Webb deleted Besa Hospitality Group LLC.
$5K+ Contributions
American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $20,000 from Beau Brauer.
American Dream PAC - $5,176 from Beau Brauer.
Heart of SGF PAC (pro-Stinnett) - $20,000 from MOCS Action.
Heart of SGF PAC - $10,000 from Missouri Leadership PAC.
KERI PAC (pro-Ingle) - $10,000 from MSCEW PAC Federal Committee.
MO Maverick PAC (pro-Alexander) - $6,000 from Bootheel Values PAC.
1776 PAC (pro-Schroer) - $7,000 from Donald Schlapprizzi.
Real Action PAC (pro-Christ) - $10,000 from Douglas Albrecht.
The Rowdy PAC - $25,000 from J & J Ventures Gaming of Missouri LLC (Effingham, IL).
Integrity First PAC - $10,000 from Paul Vogel.
Protect Freedom and Democracy - $54,506 from Missouri Jobs with Justice Voter Action.
Senate Democratic Campaign Committee - $100,000 from Missouri and Kansas Laborers PAC.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Emily van Schenkhof, Ryan Hart, and Jane Cunningham.
Saturday: Jack Danforth (the big 9-0), Kate Casas, John Gaskin III, Warren Wood, Lana Ladd Baker, Jenee Lowe, and Rachel Storch.
Sunday: Sarah Wood Martin and Sam Murphey.
Labor Day: Reps. Terri Violet and Emily Weber, Sheila Solon, Rex Sinquefield, and Kathlyn Fares.
MOScout Schedule
I’m off for the long weekend. Back in your inbox bright and early Tuesday morning.