2020 Talk

Sifton for Gov

Last weekend the Post-Dispatch ran an article looking at Sen. Scott Sifton’s gubernatorial ambitions.  See it here.  Sifton, later, linked to the article in a fundraising email to supporters.  So far, Sifton is the only Democrat actively pounding the pavement to run for governor.  As result the clock is ticking for other Dems to decide.  There’s probably a four to five-month window, from here until early summer, for the other Dem names – most notably Auditor Nicole Galloway - to decide whether to enter the race.  At some point – say by July 4 – if no one else has stepped up, Sifton will be the presumptive Dem nominee.

Justice for Senate 25

Eddy Justice will soon be filing a committee to run for Senate 25 (Libla termed).  He’ll have Axiom Strategies in his corner.

Justice is a grassroots leader in Southeast Missouri who came on the scene during the Tea Party movement. He has since served as the Treasurer of the Missouri House Republican Campaign Committee (HRCC).

Justice would likely be another member of the Senate Conservative Caucus.

Driving the Day

Senate Committee get busy…

·         8AM tort reform issues will be heard in Sen. Ed Emery’s Governor Reform Committee.

·         8AM Sen. Andrew Koenig’s educational saving account proposal will be heard in his Ways and Means Committee.

·         After Morning Session, Sen. Dan Hegeman’s bill lowering the cap on LIHTC will get a hearing.

Now Comes St. Louis Consolidation

This morning a years-long effort called Better Together will unveil their blueprint recommendations to reconfigure the St. Louis region’s governance structure. 

Leaks over the past few weeks have opponents of the consolidation plan already swinging punches.  (Sen. Jamilah Nasheed filed a constitutional amendment to derail the plan).

The big picture: merge St. Louis City and St. Louis County while stripping most authority away from the scores of small municipalities in the County.  Aside from the policy benefits like rationalizing operations, creating taxpayer cost-savings, and bringing sanity back to TIF policy, there’s a big psychological sell: it would be a big boost for St. Louis on the national scene creating apples to apples comparisons with other metropolitan areas.  (In other words, drop thirty or forty places immediately on “Most Dangerous Places to Live lists etc).

MOScout’s Hallway Index: Senate Seat to Flip?

I asked the hallway walkers which state senate district they thought was most vulnerable to flipping parties in 2020. 27 replies…

RESULTS

1. Senate 1 Sifton (termed)… 29.6%

2. Senate 3 Romine (termed)… 0%

3. Senate 15 Koenig… 25.9%

4. Senate 17 Arthur… 14.8%

5. Senate 19 Rowden… 29.6%

UM Nervous About Budget

Columbia Daily Tribune reports that the University of Missouri is eyeing the state tax revenue numbers nervously.  Despite the reassurances from the Department of Revenue this week that the state revenue shortfall would be made up in April when Missourians get their tax bill, the university is making plans for possible cuts.  See it here.

One concern about the bonding proposal was that it’s light on projects in the major metropolitan areas.  Sen. Bill Eigel said this “imbalance” needed to be addressed before he could support it.

And both Sens. Jamilah Nasheed and Kiki Curls voiced the concern that St. Louis and Kansas City have little to gain from the list of projects that the bonding would accomplish.

Haefner for Parson

Former Rep. Marsha Haefner will be going to work for Governor Mike Parson.  She’ll be in the St. Louis office doing liaison work.

Haefner has been mentioned as a possible Republican candidate for state senate in 2020.  She’d be a strong candidate as Republicans try to wrestle Senate 1 from Dems.  Sen. Scott Sifton will be termed.  Rep. Doug Beck is expected to be the Democratic nominee.

Ross for Senate

The race for Senate 33 may have already started… Rep. Robert Ross has amended his committee to run for the seat.  Ross is a firebrand conservative and budget hawk in the House.  The current incumbent Sen. Mike Cunningham, is termed.  In addition to making the change to his committee, Ross is taking other steps as well.

He’s met with Axiom about the race – though it’s unclear if the relationship has been formalized.  However, the biggest hint of what’s to come is in the formation of a PAC, Team Robert PAC a third-party.

Greitens GC Back to Graves

Eric Greiten’s general counsel, Lucinda Luetkemeyer, is back at the law firm of Graves Garrett.  See it here.  Lucinda rejoined Graves Garrett LLC after most recently serving as general counsel to Missouri’s governor. As the administration’s top lawyer, she was the chief legal officer for the executive branch, providing legal counsel to the governor, executive staff, and cabinet officials…

Luetkemeyer’s husband is Sen. Tony Luetkemeyer.

Quote of the Day

Lobbyist: “My twitter strategy is to suck up to legislators.”

Jason Hancock’s lede (see it here) nails the big takeaway: new debt issuance.   Gov. Mike Parson wants lawmakers to borrow $351 million to help mend the state’s ailing bridges, his latest attempt to repair state infrastructure after his gas tax proposal was beaten back at the polls last fall.

That kind of talk unnerves some. 

·         We all like workforce development and infrastructure! And some of the others he mentioned. But the only real plan I've heard to "pay" for it is to put $350mil on a credit card. If we can't afford it now in a good economy, how exactly can we afford to pay it off, with interest, when the next recession hits?..

January Quarters: Top COH

Missouri campaign committees had over $27 million in the bank at the end of the year.  Here are the top campaign committees by cash on-hand.

Hawley For Missouri - $1,057,029

Greitens For Missouri - $977,648

Eastern Mo Laborers Education & Benevolent Fund - $869,657

Carpenters Help in The Political Process (CHIPP) - $757,462

Friends of Gregory FX Daly - $605,221

Ruth Gets Transportation

Rep. Becky Ruth has been appointed chair of the House Transportation Committee.  House Bills 206 (Murphy) and 448 (Pike) were referred to her committee.  The two will likely be merged and becomd the first bill that the House passes.  The bills rename part of Interstate 55 for the late Rep. Cloria Brown.

2020 Positioning Starts… Now

A tipster reports seeing Axiom-ites meeting with Rep. Holly Rehder last week.  The implication is that consultants are already busy lining up their 2020 roster, pitching possible state senate candidates.

In this case, Rehder is expected to face Rep. Kathy Swan in a Republican primary for Senate 27 where Sen. Wayne Wallingford is termed.

Inside the Numbers

As might be expected, this poll shows huge partisan divides among Missourians.

·         70% of Republicans think the country is headed in the right direction while 85% of Democrats say it’s on the wrong track.

·         84% of Republicans approve of Donald Trump’s job performance, and 87% of Democrats disapprove.

·         51% of Republicans think illegal immigration is the country’s biggest problem, but Democrats (35%) worry most about rising healthcare costs.

·         79% of Democrats agree that the federal government should be acting to reduce the threat of global warming, while only 32% of Republicans agree.

What It Means

In Jefferson City, Republicans and Democrats will find greatest success in working together on technical issues and pragmatic problems, but once ideology enters the frame, it gets real hard.  The bases of the two parties have two different worldviews.

Former Rep. Kevin Corlew has formed a committee to run for AG in 2024.  See the paperwork here.

Pearce Chairs Fitz Transition

The press release: Incoming Treasurer Scott Fitzpatrick today announced his Transition Team. This team will provide guidance and expertise on policy priorities and initiatives… Advisors: Sarah Steelman, Former State Treasurer; Clint Zweifel, Former State Treasurer; Wendell Bailey, Former State Treasurer; Sen. Bob Onder, R-St. Charles; Paul Curtman, Former State Representative, Financial Advisor; Sarah Mills, Clay County Public Administrator; Rick Holton Jr., Investor & Founder, Cultivation Capital; Brian Milner, President, Missouri Community College Association; Mark Milton, Tax Attorney; Locke Thompson, Cole County Prosecutor; and Mark C. Thompson, Vice Chairman, Country Club Bank… Chair David Pearce will continue as Senior Policy Coordinator in the Treasurer’s Office, a role he has held since 2017. Prior to his work in the Treasurer’s Office, Pearce worked as a banker at the First Community Bank of Warrensburg and served in the General Assembly for 14 years.

Follow-Up on Kirby

I wrote yesterday that David Kirby will be joining the State Auditor’s office.  He’ll be tackling legislative affairs, taking the spot of Joan Gummels who is retiring.

Kirby to Galloway

David Kirby, who served as Claire McCaskill’s campaign manager, is joining the State Auditor’s office.  He starts January 14, and will be serving as “senior counsel.”

Before McCaskill’s campaign, Kirby worked at Lewis Rice for few years, and before that he was with the Attorney General’s office.