Moody Sees Excess Revenue

Budget watcher Jim Moody (find his reports here) sees state tax receipts exceeding the consensus revenue estimate this fiscal year.

Let’s Look Out For Each Other

With last week’s COVID outbreak in the House, I wanted to start this week with a quick recitation of things we all know are true.

· We all want to be safe and healthy – and more importantly, we want to keep our families safe and healthy.

· Wearing a face mask is primarily about protecting those around you. It offers the wearer some protection, but much more protection for others.

· Masks are not panaceas. They help. But transmission can still happen. That’s why we try to social distance as well, and also try to avoid crowded indoors spaces. We do it all because we’re trying to protect those who are vulnerable. We’re trying to keep our families safe.

· Even if you do it all this, you may still get COVID. There’s no shame in that. LET PEOPLE KNOW. Then they can assess their risk, and decide if they should get tested. If you don’t let people know, you’re putting their families at greater risk.

· Remember: although you may feel healthy, you may be carrying COVID. Asymptomatic people are contagious.

· We’re in this together. Let’s look out for each other.

House Presses Pause

With a number of members testing positive for COVID, the House announced yesterday afternoon that they were going to cancel session for next week.

“Due to the rising number of COVID-19 cases in the building, we are exercising an abundance of caution to protect members, staff, and visitors by canceling session next week. Our goal is to return to work the following week.”

Moving on Speaker’s Priority

Today, the House Rules – Legislative Oversight will hear the adoption support bills passed out of Families and Children Committee earlier this week.

Driving the Day: Price Censure Debate?

HC 1, the Ethics Committee’s complaint Against Rep. Wiley Price, is on the House calendar for third reading, meaning it’s cued up for debate. Post-Dispatch reports that it may be today.

MO Dems must be grinding their teeth that this will be the story of the day instead of the Republican madness in DC.

6K MO COVID Deaths

Missouri’s COVID data dashboard is in the midst of another maintenance update this morning. Yesterday the state death total was 5,951. Because of the reporting lag (which I have written about repeatedly), this means that Missouri has already experienced its 6,000th death from COVID. In fact, it likely occurred last month. Missouri’s population is roughly 6 million. That means 1 in 1000 Missourians have now died from COVID.

What To Watch For

I’m wondering if Trumpism is still the future of the MOGOP. What to watch: Do any of the Republicans jockeying to run for auditor try to grab the “Trump lane?”

1. Electoral College fun.

2. Who’s to blame for DC riot?

3. Federal money boost to income.

4. 2nd stimulus check plans.

5. Housing prices.

6. Minimum wage.

7. Gaming revenue.

8. Cigarette smuggling.

9. One more thing to worry about.

Remington/MOScout Poll

Survey conducted January 6 through January 7, 2021. 980 likely 2022 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2022 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-3%

· The poll finds little change in Republican attitudes since the Dec 5 poll. 72% of Republicans still believe that Trump actually won the election (versus 73% then), and 64% of Republican will get vaccinated against COVID (versus 60% then).

Hawley Takes Heat

Senator Josh Hawley took heat from a variety of sources yesterday for his role in President Donald Trump’s misinformation campaign to convince supporters that the election was “stolen.”

Vescovo to Push for Ed Reform

Speaker Rob Vescovo’s opening day speech made it clear that he’ll push for education legislation. By my measure 1,107 words of his 2,676-word speech were dedicated to the topic. That’s 41%. It’s personal for him…

There’s no certainty that this session will adhere to the usual rhythm of a legislative session. With the risk looming that there may be an elongated COVID break or the session itself might be suddenly truncated, there’s a premium on getting your agenda moving early and into position for passage as soon as possible.

First in MOScout: Shamed Explores STL Exec Run

Rep. Shamed Dogan is exploring a bid for St. Louis County Executive. Democrat Sam Page won a special election last year to finish the term of Steve Stenger who resigned amid federal corruption charges. The election is in 2022.

Staffing Scooplettes

· GROCE TO MAY… Dr. Jason Groce, chief of staff to termed Sen. Jamilah Nasheed, will move over to Sen. Karla May’s office, taking the same position there.

Results: End-of-the-Year Reader’s Poll

Q1 Senate Republican Most Likely to Lead First Filibuster

Bill Eigel… 64.4%

Denny Hoskins… 5%

Mike Moon… 20.6%

Cindy O'Laughlin… 10%

Vaccination Roll Out

If you vaccinate older folks, you will immediately save lives.

• Approximately half the COVID deaths in Missouri have been people over 80 years old.

• About 75% of deaths have occurred in those older than 70.

• And if you vaccinate everyone over 60, you’d cut the number of COVID deaths by 90%.

Bush Maybe Won’t Back Pelosi?

Politico reports on a CNN segment in which Congresswoman-elect Cori Bush decline to commit to vote for Nancy Pelosi for speaker.

Kleinsorge to Lime

Dan Kleinsorge, chief of staff to Senate Pro Tem Dave Schatz, will become the new head of the Missouri Limestone Producers Association.

5,000 MO COVID Deaths

As of Sunday morning, the state dashboard showed 4,937 deaths. Because of the reporting lag I’ve written about multiple times, we’re surely over 5,000 deaths at this point. We probably reach it a few weeks ago.

1. COVID crushing the Flu

2. Eviction/foreclosure risk.

3. K-12’s impact on labor pool.

4. November MO job report.

5. State’s UI benefits.

6. Missouri public pension funding.

7. The end-of-the-year lull is almost upon us…