Senate Districts Most Likely to Flip

Stephen Webber seems a shoo-in here. His first Republican candidate dropped, and the latest recruit doesn’t have much greater chance of overcoming the district’s Democratic nature.

In 2020, Trump won Senate 11 with 54%. It’s Republicans to lose. They might.  With ultra-conservative Joe Nicola coming out of the Republican primary, and Democratic Rep. Robbie Sauls running hard, it’s clearly in play, but still #2 on Flipping PowerRankings.

I expect this to be where Dems and GOPers concentrate their efforts this cycle. David Gregory emerged from a three-way primary, but he had to run to his right to do it. Meanwhile Joe Pereles has raised good money.

Sen. Lauren Arthur is termed. Rep. Maggie Nurrenebern has been doing everything right to keep this one in the Democratic column. Republicans, though, recruited a strong candidate in Jerry Nolte.

The GOP failed to find a South County rep who would take the bait and run against Democratic incumbent Doug Beck. As a consequence, he’s getting a near-pass here. But it’s a swing district, so it makes the list.