Republicans flipped this last cycle. by a mere 179 votes. But Mike Jones’ Senate run takes away their incumbent. Plus, Dems recruited a strong candidate in Tracey Steele.

Philip Oehlerking has won his two elections by a combined 324 votes. In a Harris-carried district, Dem Mary Ann Perkins is a real threat to flip it.

Jeremy Dean won by 341 votes. That was before the House formally reprimanded him over his vulgar text to a colleague. One to watch.

Jon Patterson’s departure gives Kevin Grover another shot without having to overcome the speaker’s personal following.

Bill Allen has twice survived this district, but Susan Hoisington’s education background and national Democratic backing make this a serious test of Allen’s staying power.

Dems see an opening here in St. Charles. But they must also counter the Republican outside spending that helped protect the seat last time.

Springfield is turning more purple.  So this is one to watch. Melanie Stinnett’s Senate run gives Katelyn Zach an opening against Jerry Angelo.

Sean Smith gives Republicans a recognizable challenger with a property-tax story to tell. But Kemp Strickler expanded his winning margin from 45 votes to 709, and Dems have the wind at their backs this year.

Jim Murphy is leaving, but the Murphy name remains on the ballot through his wife, Maryellen. A Trump-plus-seven district and that family continuity make this a harder flip than the other open suburban targets.

Will Jobe is the incumbent in a good Dem year. However, his 312-vote victory leaves little room for complacency. Republican businessman and planning commissioner Michael Young gives the GOP a credible challenger.  Jobe remains the favorite.

Democrats recruited retired union electrician Dan Kinate in a district Kamala Harris carried by a whisker. Chris Brown nevertheless won by eleven points last time, making this a plausible pickup, but running against a substantial incumbent advantage to overcome.

Travis Wilson’s two mid-50s victories leave Democrats an opening if the suburban swing reaches beyond their top targets. Air Force veteran Jewel Kelly’s selection for national Democratic support makes this worth watching, though Wilson is favored.

Brad Christ won by ten points while Harris carried his district by five – a substantial demonstration of crossover appeal.

Stephanie Hein’s demonstrated crossover appeal keeps her favored.  But her last two wins margins - 203 and 365 votes – keep her on the list.

Chesterfield voted for Kamala Harris but reelected Ben Keathley by nine points. That means Paul Lentz has favorable terrain.  His big challenge is persuading voters who have already demonstrated that they distinguish Keathley from the Republican ticket.