Republicans flipped this last cycle. But with incumbent Mike Jones running for senate, it’s a top target for Dems to flip it back. Their candidate is Tracey Steele.

Most Republicans will say that they only reason they’ve held onto this district is because of their stellar candidate. Rep. Melanie Stinnett.  And now she’s termed and running for the Senate.  That opens a chance for Dem Katelyn Zach to take this seat.

This is a possible pick-up for Republicans because of two converging factors: a good candidate and a damaged candidate.  Republicans have a good candidate in Russ Gosselin.  And Dems have a damaged candidates after Rep. Jeremy Dean’s obscene texting scandal.

Rep. Philip Oehlerking survived his first re-election. But the difference here is the national environment. That puts him in real danger.

This district has been competitive for several cycles with Republicans always coming out on top. But the national environment could spell doom for Republican Colin Wellenkamp in this St. Charles seat.

Rep. Kemp Strickler is now running for his third term. And with a good environment Dems, the wind at his back.

The district is back on the list because of a strong Republican candidate in Sean Smith.

One of the bluest seat that Republicans hold. For that reason, it has to be considered a top flip. And yet, it’s hard to bet against Rep. Bill Allen. He very well may hold off Dems once again.

Kevin Grover is running again for Dems. He scored 45% in 2024. Why could this year be different? It’s an open seat. Former incumbent, Speaker Jon Patterson, is termed out. And then-candidate Trump is now President Trump with horrible poll numbers.

With Rep. Jim Murphy termed, Dems will likely have this South St. Louis County seat on their target list.  the only problem is that his wife is running now.

Rep. Will Jobe hold this seat for Dems last cycle after Robbie Sauls moved on. It’d be smart to bet on Jobe again. But, Independence keeps moving a shade redder each cycle. So it gets a place on the list

This has been competitive for a couple cycles, but Rep. Mike Burton always comes up on top.

This has been a competitive seat in the past. But as the district trends Democratic, Rep. Jaclyn Zimmerman should win re-election.

It’ll have to be a very bad night for Republican Rep. Michael Davis to get swept out. So this is one to watch only if “Dem wave” scenario becomes realistic.

Rep. Aaron Crossley opted not to run for re-election, making this an open seat. Democrat Tedi Rowland likely holds, but one to keep an eye on, as it’s been a close district in the past.

Rep. Brad Christ works hard and has raised good money. And critically in this type of year, he outperforms Trump in his district.

I don’t see Rep. Stephanie Hein losing, but it’s a competitive district so it’s one to watch.

Chesterfield is not as Republican as many people imagine it is. This district actually voted slightly for Biden in 2020. Rep. Ben Keathley has proven himself a good campaigner, but its' another suburban district to watch.