Roorda Polling Memo

M E M O R A N D U M

 

TO:                         Committee To Elect Jeff Roorda

FROM:                  KBW Campaign Solutions

DATE:                    October 5, 2018

SUBJECT:             Top-Lines From Campaign Poll #1

 

 

To whom it may concern:

Below is a summary of survey results for campaign polling conducted on behalf of Jefferson County Executive candidate, Jeff Roorda.

Polling was conducted by Voice Broadcasting Corp (“VBC”) of Arlington, Texas. The methodology of the poll utilized Interactive Voice Response (“IVR”) technology relying on a predictive database of frequent voters weighted for the anticipated turn-out and partisan make-up in the November 6, 2018 General Election in Jefferson County.

Polling was conducted from October 2-4, 2018 dialing only landline telephones in compliance with state and federal regulations. Results were compiled from 581 likely voters who replied to the poll via IVR responses. The margin of error (“MOE”) of the poll is +/- 3.1%. Because portions of Jefferson County are not included in State Senate District 22, some questions utilized split-sampling (as indicated) which would increase the MOE accordingly.

Respondents were asked a battery of questions beginning with uninformed (“initial heat”) questions on the election for Jefferson County Executive and State Senate District 22 candidates, followed by ballot issue questions, concluding with informed head-to-head questions describing the candidates for Jefferson County Executive and State Senate District 22.

[NOTE: The poll included a “weather balloon” question asking voters to think back to the August 2018 Election and recall how they voted on PROP A (the “Right To Work” ballot initiative). Among those who provided a response, 27.8% said they voted “yes,” while 72.2 % said they voted “no.” This could indicate a statistically significant over-sampling of Republican/Conservative voters based on the fact that actual election results on PROP A in Jefferson County yielded 21.6% “yes” and 78.4% “no,” a 6.2% variance. The partisan/ideological tilt might be explained by the fact that IVR polling relies exclusively on landline telephone users which tends to be an older, conservative-leaning universe of respondents.]

The survey instrument consisted of six unique questions which are captioned below:

Q1. If the election for Jefferson County Executive were held today, would you vote for: Republican Dennis Gannon, Democrat Jeff Roorda, or undecided?

Dennis Gannon: 34.9%

Jeff Roorda: 39.8%

Undecided/Did Not Respond: 25.3%

PAGE 2 - ROORDA POLL #1

Q2. (SPLIT SAMPLE) If the election for State Senator were held today, would you vote for:  Republican Paul Wieland, Democrat Robert Butler, Libertarian Richie Camden, or undecided?

Paul Wieland: 39.4%

Robert Butler: 37.2%

Richie Camden: 2.9%

Undecided/Did Not Respond: 20.5%

Q3. Now, thinking back to the August primary election on PROP A, the Right To Work ballot initiative, did you vote yes or no or did not vote?

YES: 22.5% [27.8%]

NO: 58.3 % [72.2%]

Undecided/Did Not Respond: 19.2%

Q4. (SPLIT SAMPLE) How do you plan to vote on PROPOSITION B, the November 6th ballot initiative to raise the minimum wage from $7.85 to $8.60? Do you plan to vote: yes or no or are you undecided?

YES: 66.1%

NO: 7.6%

Undecided/Did Not Respond: 26.3%

Q5. (SPLIT SAMPLE) Senate District 22 Informed Question.

Paul Wieland: 17.8%

Robert Butler: 51.7%

Richie Camden: 5.9%

Undecided/Did Not Respond: 24.6%

Q6. Jefferson County Executive Informed Question.

Dennis Gannon: 16.6%

Jeff Roorda: 37.6%

Undecided/Did Not Respond: 45.8%

Demographic Break-Down of Respondents:

Male: 49.7%                                                       Female: 50.3%

White: 94.4%                                                     Black: 1.1%                                                         Other: 4.5%

Republican: 53.0%                                            Democrat: 40.8%                                              Other: 6.2%

 

Cross-Tabulation of survey responses and additional details will follow in a separate memorandum.