House Forecast - 2/15/2010
The House Landscape
Next week filing opens for the 2010 Elections. Here is my current survey of the House landscape.
The biggest factor right now is the national mood. Having a Democrat in the White House has re-energized the Republicans. They are leading in national polls, such as the generic congressional ballot. Furthermore events, like the Tea Party rallies and the Massachusetts Senate race, have moved the consensus to expect a strong Republican year. I have integrated this expectation into my current forecast which calls for net no change in the House next year.
But it is important to note that as the unemployment rate recedes over the next six months, the anti-Democratic sentiment may fade as well.
There are twelve districts below. These are the races which appear to be most competitive. They are listed in the order in which I believe they are most vulnerable to switching parties. Although I am watching some others, I doubt that the other 151 districts which are not listed will change hands.
Competitive Races
HD-100 – South St. Louis County – Rep. Sue Schoemehl (termed) – Schoemehl has said that she’s working on a candidate, but this may be one of the toughest defenses for Democrats. The district leans Republican (52-53%). Right now the only Democratic candidate is Marty Zuniga. He’s a hard worker, but is universally panned by the establishment as not fitting the district – too young, too liberal.
Republicans have long-time business owner Marsha Haefner. She had an okay first fundraising quarter and is a soft face with a strong ideological core.
Hard to call until we see the “final” Democratic field, but right now it looks like a GOP Pick-up.
HD-6 – Marion County - Rep. Rachel Bringer (termed). District leans Republican so it’s one to watch now that it’s open again. Candidate recruitment will determine which way this race goes.
Democrats love their candidate Carl Thompson, but Republicans are close to unveiling theirs as well.
It’s a 46-47% Democratic district and in an expected Republican year, that’s probably too far away for the Dems to retain, assuming the Republican recruit comes through. Right now I’m chalking it up to the Republican column.
HD-48 – Lees Summit – Rep. Will Kraus (running for Senate) – The surprise change in Senate 8 with Brian Yates dropping out and Will Kraus jumping in has created an opening in a solid Democratic district. This is 54-55% voting index for Dems. That means that we may very well see a Dem pick-up here.
The candidate recruitment is still fluid, but counting this one for Dems.
HD-121 – Johnson County – Denny Hoskins (freshman) – Hoskins is number one in the incumbent protection program. He’s been helped to pass legislation to pass and tutored on constituent services. Although any incumbent is hard to beat, Hoskins still seems vulnerable. He had a scrap with unpaid taxes a few months ago and Dems hint their opp research will yield more embarrassments in the future.
Meanwhile the Dem candidate, Courtney Cole, is doing everything right. She’s outraised Hoskins in the last two quarters. Can she overcome the Republican lean (51-52% district) in a Republican year? Be tough, but it’s still a good bet.
HD-17 – St. Charles – Rep. Kenny Biermann – Biermann took this seat in a very close race last cycle. He won by 73 votes. The incumbent he beat, Vicki Schneider, is vowing a return. But she hasn’t done much work yet toward that end.
Republicans are sticking with her even though Biermann is a hard working door-knocker. Their theory is that the environment in 2010 should be significantly better than 2008, and should be worth 37 votes switching direction.
They could be right.
HD-30 – Kansas City – Rep. Jason Brown (termed) – Lexi Norris, the Democratic recruit, is getting high marks. She’s a 6th-generation from the district with strong roots.
The Republican is Nick Marshall, though he faces a primary. He had a strong first fundraising quarter, bringing in over $12k. Norris has been working hard, and now has $20k in the bank.
Dems peg the voting index at 49% so it clearly will be a hard-fought race. Still, it’s one that the Nixon team has targeted, so Norris should have greater resources available down the stretch.
HD-21 – Mexico – Rep. Steve Hobbs (termed) – Kelly Schultz ran well last cycle, and got good reviews. Dems are eager to try to win back this district, the seat of Joe Maxwell. But they have to wait. Republicans took a while to find someone, but ended up with a fellow with good name ID – John Cauthorn, a former state senator.
It’s a Republican district (51-52%). In a Republican year, this probably stays Republican despite Schultz’ hard work.
HD-55 – Blue Springs – Rep. Bryan Pratt (termed) – This district has a slight tilt to the Republican side (51% voting index). But like all of these numbers, that may be understated as the two last cycles have been strong Democratic years.
Democrats have Clay Rodgers, a union member, and Republicans are putting up Shiela Solon, a Blue Springs City Councilmember.
In Solon’s favor: Pratt will work hard to pump up the turn-out from his district to help him in his Senate 8 primary.
HD-152 – Eminence – Rep. J C Kuessner (termed) – This is a tight Dem district (51-52%). But it’s conservative and rural, the kind of make-up that makes Dems nervous and has Republicans thinking they have a shot – especially in this year.
The initial preferred Dem candidate, Logan Merrill, was called into action in the Middle East; so Shane Van Steenis is now their guy. His family runs a canoe operation in Eminence.
Republicans have Paul Fitzwater, a former high school basketball coach and referee. He’s a hard-charging high achiever. He had an okay first quarter, raising over $7k. Van Steenis meanwhile raised nothing, but put $14k of his own money into the race.
The guess would be that Dems hold, but it’s definitely in play.
HD-54 – Blue Springs – Rep. Gary Dusenberg (termed) – This is a Republican-leaning district (52% voting index) which I probably wouldn’t put in the competitive list except that Democrats are saying very good things about their candidate John Bullard. Governor Jay Nixon has come in for a fundraiser for him. And it shows on his fundraising quarter. Bullard had $28,857 on-hand in his January report.
I haven’t met either the Republican or Democratic candidate here. The Republican
nominee is Jeanie Lauer, a member of the city council.
HD-22 – Moberly – Rep. Therese Sander (termed) – The Democrat last cycle, Gail Brown, performed right about at the voting index, scoring 48%. Dems are looking to find someone a little more dynamic this time around, but haven’t landed a candidate yet. Republicans have a primary.
Randy Asbury is a county commissioner, and Tim Remole is a small business owner. Either one should be able to hold this district assuming that they don’t get consumed in a nasty primary.
HD-137 – Springfield – Rep. Charlie Norr – Norr should be safe. But the district is a toss-up 50-50 district. And in a Republican year, there might be something to watch.
The Republican, Melissa Leach, has a strong backer who’s donated about $20k to her campaign. The forecast is for Norr to retain the seat, but it’s worth watching.
Conclusion
A great numbers of variables are undetermined including the final recruiting picture, the 2010 political environment and the extent to which Governor Jay Nixon helps out financially in leveling the playfield which has slanted against Democrats in recent cycles.
But given the above analysis, my current forecast would be for no net change in the make-up of the House.
Special Report - January Quarter Top Paid Consultants/Fundraisers
Top Ten Consultants/Fundraisers – January Quarter Edition
Here are the Misosuri consultants who got paid the most in the January Quarter.
John Thompson – Thompson Communications – $288,529
Blunt for Senate - $273,268
Goodman for Congress - $15,261
Blunt for Senate - $273,268Goodman for Congress - $15,261
Donna English – Capitol Consulting - $165,908
Majority Fund - $41,113
Friends of Peter Kinder - $34,602
Schweich for Auditor - $28,263
Citizens to Elect Mike Kehoe - $12,165
Engler for Missouri – $9,128
Bob Dixon for Senate - $7,645
Citizens for Shields - $5,095
Citizens for Brad Lager - $4,547
Friends of Peter Kinder Debt Committee - $3,888
Re-elect Rupp for Senate - $2,396
Citizens to Elect Kurt Schaefer – $2,084
Friends of Munzlinger - $2,006
Jason Brown for Senate – 1,936
Schmitt for Senate – $1,667
Committee to Elect Charboneau for Rep - $873
Citizens for Romine - $683
Citizens for Hinson - $408
Committee to Elect Scott Lipke - $211
Elect Funderburk - $187
David Barklage – Strategic Communications - $155,675
Vote Yes to Stop Double Taxation - $63,000
Friends of Peter Kinder - $30,000
Majority Fund - $28,000
Missouri Republican Party - $21,000
Lewis & Clark Regional Leadership Fund - $9,000
Goodman for Congress - $3,000
Friends of Tilley - $1,000
Jeff Roe – Axiom Strategies - $108,543
Corrigan for County Executive - $24,639
Stouffer for Congress - $23,544
Graves for Congress - $20,000
Citizens Against Forever Tax - $14,091
Vote Yes to Stop Double Taxation - $5,000
Citizens to Elect Mike Kehoe - $1,000
Jason Brown for Senate - $4,500
Missouri S.O.S. Ballot - $3,703
Citizens for Brad Lager - $2,256
Billy Long for Congress - $8,750
Blunt for Senate - $1,058
Ken Morley – Hilltop Public Solutions - $74,370
Missourians for Affordable Healthcare Choice - $30,099
MO Dem Party, Federal Committee - $23,852
Jay Nixon for Missouri - $20,419
John Hancock & Associates – $69,578
MO GOP, Federal Committee - $42,448
Blunt for Senate - $19,664
Committee to Elect Steve Elhmann - $5,562
Ed Martin for Congress - $1,269
House Republican Campaign Committee - $635
Matt Lieberman – Majority Strategies - $61,880
Advance St. Louis - $19,150
Friends for Chuck Bank - $12,000
Montee for Auditor - $9,000
Slay for Mayor - $7,574
Citizens for Colona - $7,156
MO House Campaign Committee - $4,000
Citizens for Mike Talboy - $3,000
Rod Jetton – Rod Jetton Associates/Commonsense Consulting – $55,256
Schaaf for Senate - $16,457
Citizens for Nieves - $10,886
Friends of Tilley - $7,993
Missourians for Crowell - $5,693
Friends of Rick Stream - $4,907
Friends of Shane Schoeller - $4,139
Citizens for Ridgeway $2,874
Citizens for Diehl - $1,506
Friends of Shelly Keeney - $799
Karen Mohan Day – Capital Enhancement - $47,206
Blunt for Senate – $42,830
Lamping for Senate - $1,276
Ron Richard 2010 - $3,100
Rachel Keller – Capital Group - $36,252
Friends of Tilley - $19,713
Icet for Auditor – $12,539
Parson for State Senate - $4,000
January Monthly Report - Economic Development Policy
Entering a new legislative session, once again we find that economic development is at the top of everyone’s agenda. That’s no surprise. Unemployment is still high and an unending stream of news articles remind people that businesses are still shuttering and cutting back.
What follows is a survey of the topic. First, I take a look at the governor’s proposals. Then how they fit into the current economic development policy, something I call the Hodgepodge.
I assess both the defenses and disparagements of the Hodgepodge. Finally I review a few alternative ways the state could organize its economic development policy and why they are improbable.
Missouri First, MOSIRA, and Training for Tomorrow
The Governor’s 2010 Jobs Plan has three components – Missouri First, MOSIRA and Training for Tomorrow.
Missouri First
There’s not really any new incentives in “Missouri First.” It’s a realignment to try to give Missouri firms a better footing in applying for economic incentives. The idea is that those who have already invested in building their businesses in Missouri should receive some benefit for that at the Incentives Cafeteria rather than getting the leftovers after their out-of-state competitors have gotten first servings.
The MOSIRA (Missouri Science and Innovation Reinvestment Act)
This proposal would retain some of the taxes on the science sector and funnel them back through government incentives and spending to reinvest in growing those industries, by funding certain projects. The act would establish a baseline of tax revenue and then as that amount grew, some portion of it would be available to be withheld from the state coffers for this purpose. The specifics (actual $$) are unknown at this time, but it has been well-received.
Training for Tomorrow
This is a $12 million grant for community colleges to expand the course work they offer in healthcare, and high-tech industries deemed the jobs of the future. The grants are funded by a federal economic recovery program, calling into question the long-term stability of funding.
Summary
None of these would qualify as bold, or transformative. But the state is staring at a budget squeeze, so this is about as much as could be expected. The political truth is that the governor will keep on introducing jobs bills until the economy is humming.
Whenever the turn comes, he wants to be able to point to action he’s taken. And until that turn comes, he’ll keep acting.
But as Sen. Jason Crowell will no doubt point out this legislative session, DED cannot point to a single job created by last year’s package. One could indeed be forgiven asking, “What about last year’s economic development bill? What did that do?” And that’s the weakness of “the Hodegpodge.”
The Hodge-Podge
If you peruse the Department of Economic Development’s 2010 budget request, you’re quickly lost in a blizzard of programs, teams, centers and acronyms. Shall we tour? MERIC, EDAF, LSRB, DREAM, MTC, Missouri Innovation Centers, Intellectual Property Management Program, MEP, MOFAST, BEST, Main Street Program, MODESA, MODESA Lite, MORESA, TIFs… That’s not even half way through.
Take the ocean of incentives, programs and subsidies and then take a look at the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2,730,000 people employed in Missouri in November 2009. Compare that to ten years earlier when Missouri non-farm payroll was at 2,831,000.
Yes, we’ve just suffered through a brutal recession. Still the fact is inescapable that Missouri has fewer jobs after ten years! One recession is not an adequate excuse for ten years lost.
The best explanation is that ten years of economic development efforts – Republican and Democratic – have been misguided.
It’s been years and years of the Hodgepodge. The Hodgepodge is what you get when you take every federal grant and program and integrate it into your economic development department. Every incentive from specific industries that will help them compete, and every new “tool” that each new director or governor wants, gets thrown into the stew. And you end up with lots activity, money and programs with no focus and arguably no effect.
For the bottom-line remains – fewer jobs in Missouri after ten years gone.
In Defense of Hodge-Podge
There are basically four defense of the Hodgepodge.
- It’s mostly free money. If you look through the Department of Economic Development’s budget, most of it is coming from the federal government. What’s the use of turning down the money if it does even a morsel of good?
- Companies Use the Hodgepodge. Although the vast majority of companies will never use any of these programs or incentives, many companies that we’re attempting to lure from other states do have programs. They plug all the subsidies they can find on our books and weight them against our costs. They do make a difference in specific cases.
- Our sister states are doing it. We have to show that we have a full range of support to the companies we’re wooing. Killing the Hodgepodge would amount to shutting down most of the DED. That sends the wrong message to companies looking to relocate.
- Where’s the Alternative? Most of the alternatives (below) seem like they’re designed by ideologues with less private sector experience than the technocrats they abhor, or political observers whose occupation is to disparage. Where’s a viable alternative to organizing economic development policy?
Alternatives
Big Bet
The best summation for the case for the Big Bet is again simple numbers. The direction and momentum of the United States economy has a dramatic effect on Missouri’s performance. The national economy of $13 trillion is a massive ocean compared with our state’s GDP of $.214 trillion. If we’re going to try to juice our returns, the question is a matter of leverage. That’s what the Big bet does.
Some question the effect of the governments’ $.6 trillion stimulus package. But the Missouri stimulus (or economic development) packages are on the scale of $.0001 trillion, if even. And with the scatter-shot approach of the Hodgepodge, they can even be tugging in different directions. (For example, does the historic tax credit program help home builders in St. Charles/ some would say yes; and others no.)
Individually state incentives are peanuts. Yes, there may be cases where someone will say it tipped the scales of a company. But intellectual honesty would have to call the bulk of incentives as favored hand-outs, not strategic economic development.
The Big Bet is to decide strategically that the state is going to focus on one idea. It could be biosciences. It could be to become the distribution hub of the Midwest. Then redirect all the resources and energy to achieving that goal, and pray that it pays off and truly transforms the state economic engine.
The political problem with the Big Bet is that initially there are very few winners. It’s only those in the industry or build-out that involves the bet. Later, years down the road, there would be ancillary effects and winners, but politically – in terms of contracts and incentives – there’s very few. That’s hard to do. Legislators come to Jefferson City to work for their constituents, not send their tax dollars to buy a dream which may never come.
(The Hodgepodge is the exact opposite; lots of winners now, few benefits down the road. Consider the bonding plan. No one talks about a big bold idea. They talk about how they could widen the benefits to get it passed I the legislature.)
Growing, Not Hunting
It could be called the Bartle Theory. Stated broadly it goes like this: let’s get rid of every little credit, subsidy and incentive we have; add up the cost and reduce the tax burden across all Missourians.
Make Missouri a lower tax state. Instead of sending resources trying to lure this or that big company to come with their two or three hundred job plant, we’ll create an environment where small businesses and entrepreneurs can thrive. They are after-all the ones who create most of the jobs.
Supporters of this approach argue that the state shouldn’t be in the position to be picking winners and losers, and that they usually do a poor job in that role anyway. Let the market decide what industries flourish in Missouri and which ones fold.
They are not entirely honest though because we all have our preferences, even if they seem to be noncontroversial – like high-paying jobs. If you’re seeking those, do you really want Missouri to be a place where the market decides that cheap wages, terrible benefits proliferate just because the market will create more jobs of that kind here?
This alternative suffers from the same weaknesses as the Big Bet, the legislative process is rigged against it.
Education
Everyone everywhere agrees that education is the surest long-term route to economic growth.
But even in unanimity there are problems. First, there is still disagreement over the nuts and bolts – how to spend those education dollars. Some believe that in a global economy “skills-based training” is foolish. The skills demanded by the market change too rapidly to believe that . Rather, we should be sending all of our children to four-year institutions where they can adapt to the changing global economy. Others insist that there will always need auto mechanics, carpenters and electricians, occupations which do not demand years of classroom lectures but rather experience and commitment.
The second problem is more severe. If a world-class educational system is the truest road for economic achievement, it’s still a long-term, generational journey. Politicians want to be able to point to immediate results (both tangible things like roads and bridges, and intangibles like lowered unemployment rates).
No one can effectively shut out the demand of resources here and now for a greater pay-off thirty years from now.
December Monthly Report - Senate Personal Financial Disclosure
The Missouri Ethics Commission requires all legislators to complete a Personal Financial Disclosure form. The PFD form requires that the following be reported:
All employment (over $1,000) of legislator, their spouse and dependent children.
All sole proprietorships, general partnerships and joint ventures. All limited partnerships or closely-held companies in which the legislator (spouse or dependent children) owns more than 10%. All listed public companies or limited partnerships in which the legislator (spouse or dependent children) owns 2% or more.
Any other miscellaneous income over $1,000.
Real property (not including one’s residence) with a fair market value of over $10,000.
Stocks, bonds or other equities valued over $10,000 owned by legislator (spouse or dependent children), not including equities in qualified plans.
Corporations and not-for-profit corporations in which the legislator (spouse or dependent children) serves as an officer or director.
Spouse, parents and children who are employed by state of Missouri, political subdivisions, or as a fee agent for Department of Revenue, or as a lobbyist.
Any tax credits claimed on last income tax report.
I reviewed the PFD forms of all state senators (33 senators – 23 Republicans, 10 Democrats), not including Senate 4 (Sen. Joe Keaveny’s was not provided yet).
The form has some ambiguities and legislators take widely different approaches in answering questions. Some offering more details than required; others’ replies are quite vague.
The information in this report is from the most recent filing, but still may be out-of-date in some of its details. And while I believe all the information is correct, errors may have been made during research or transcription and should be independently verified.
Summary
Most state senators do not have a significant investment portfolios.
6 of the 10 Democrats reported neither real property holdings nor stock or bonds holdings. The same was true of 7 of the 23 Republicans. It is conceivable, because the reporting threshold is $10,000, that they could have a rebalanced portfolio of individual stocks and therefore have significant holding without triggering a reporting. But I assume that would be the anomaly.
On the whole, Republicans appear, in this limited view, to have greater assets that their Democratic counterparts. Only 2 of the 10 Democrats reported stock, bond or equity holdings, whereas slightly half, 12, of the 23 Republicans did. Only 3 Democrats reported real property holdings. Again, about half, 11, of the Republicans did.
Employment
Most senators have outside employment. Only 6 of the 33 senators did not show some occupation in addition to their legislative duties.
Republicans have seven attorneys serving (three of whom – Sens. Jack Goodman, Eric Schmitt and Kurt Schaefer – were all employed by Lathrop Gage). Democrats have only one, Sen. Jolie Justus. (But Sen. Joe Keaveny has a law degree and will soon be added to their numbers).
The next most common occupation is farmer (3 Republicans and 2 Democrats), followed by those working in the financial industry (4 Republicans and no Democrats).
Two Democrats work for labor organizations (Sens. Tim Green and Victor Callahan).
Family employment is not tied to ideology
There appears little correlation between one’s political party and the likelihood of one’s family employment being private or public sector. (This is slightly surprising since Republican small business owners out-number Democrats in the senate, especially if you include farmers and small law offices.)
Yet senators of both parties have relatives making careers in the public sector. Any outrage over a growing public sector workforce doesn’t seem to resonate on a personal level. The clearest case of this is Sen. Brad Lager who has a small-government philosophy yet listed eight family members who hold public sector jobs.
Tax Credits
6 senators claimed tax credits on their most recent tax return. This would seem to indicate a higher-than-average participation in the tax credit programs. That makes sense given their likely greater familiarity with the programs. They were mostly for donations made to not-for-profit organizations.
Senate Personal Financial Disclosures
Frank Barnitz
In addition to his senate duties, Barnitz works as a farmer. He owns Barnitz Farms and also has ownership stakes in Sho-Me Livestock and Briarwood Cabins LLC. His wife, Lisa, works at the Dent County Health Department.
Barnitz reported no real property holdings and no equity or bonds holdings.
He serves on the board of Mid-Ozark CASA.
He claimed Neighborhood Assistance Program tax credits on his taxes.
Matt Bartle
In addition to his senate duties, Bartle works as a lawyer. He is a partner with Graves, Bartle & Marcus LLC. His uncle, Eddie Brickner, is the Cooper City Presiding Commissioner.
Bartle owns four rental properties in Jackson County, and holds stock funds as well as single issue equities including Merrill Lynch, Citibank, Bank of America, and MetLife.
Joan Bray
Bray has no other employment beside her duties as senator. Her husband, Carl, is on the Board of Curators of the University of Missouri.
Bray reported ownership in a limited partnership (an investment club) as well as owning Gabelli funds, T Rowe Price funds, Vanguard funds and TIAA-CREF funds.
She and her husband draw retirement pensions from Public Education Employee, and Lee Enterprises.
Victor Callahan
In addition to his senate duties, Callahan works for Greater KC Buildings and Trades.
He reported no real property holdings and no equity or bonds holdings.
Norma Champion
In addition to her duties as a senator, Champion is employed by Evangel University.
Champion reported a residential rental and several duplexes. She also owned mutual funds as well as single issues Oklahoma Gas and Electric, and American Plaza Properties.
Champion earns money from her rental properties and Social Security.
Champion serves on the Board for Higher Christian Education (Assemblies of God in Springfield).
Dan Clemens
In addition to his senate duties, Clemens is a farmer and works for USDA/ FSA.
Clemens reported real property holdings of two farms in Webster.
Jason Crowell
In addition to his senate duties, Crowell works as a lawyer for Osburn, Hine, Yates & Murphy LLC.
Crowell reported no real property holdings and no equity or bonds holdings.
Jane Cunningham
In addition to her senate duties, Cunningham reported employment with England & Company Case Management Inc (Pacific, MO). Her husband, Gary, worked for HUD. He reported miscellaneous income from UniGroup.
Cunningham reported owning a vacation home (Osage Beach), and equity holdings of money market accounts and Growth Fund of America.
Cunningham claimed Maternity Home Credit (for $500) on her taxes.
Rita Days
Days reported no additional employment, income or holdings of any kind.
Tom Dempsey
In addition to his senate duties, Dempsey works at First National Bank. He also works at and has ownership in Pio’s Restaurant and Columns Banquet Center in St. Charles.
Kevin Engler
In addition to his senate duties, Engler works at Edward Jones. His wife, Chris, works at Burgess Development.
Engler reported owning real property (office space, and a house in which his son dwells) and mutual funds.
His wife serves on the Board of Habitat for Humanity in Farmington.
Engler claimed tax credits in association with Youth for Christ and Habitat for Humanity.
Jack Goodman
In addition to his senate duties, Goodman works as an attorney with Lathrop & Gage. His wife, Laura Hood-Goodman, works at Hood’s Service Center. His father, Samuel Goodman, is presiding commissioner of Lawrence County.
Goodman reported ownership in two limited partnerships - Goodman, Attorney at Law LLC and Goodman Properties LCC. He reported owning commercial space in Lawrence.
Tim Green
In addition to his senate duties, Green is employed by Missouri State Building Trades. His wife, Lisa Ann, is employed at Barnes Jewish College of Nursing. His father, John Green, served on the Spanish Lake Fire Board.
Green reported real property of a recreational mobile home, and a residence in Cole County.
Green serves as president of the Board of the Missouri State Building Trades.
John Grieseheimer
Grieseheimer reported no other employment beyond his senate duties. His wife, Rita, works at Hochschild, Bloom & Co, a CPA firm. His son, Sean, works for Sprint Nextel. His son, Aaron works for Missouri Eagle Distributing. His daughter, Michelle works for Parker-Hannefin/Spodla Value.
His reported an ownership stake in Hochschild, Bloom & Co. He also owns some equities: Steamboat Financial Group and Columbia Midcap Value Fund.
Grieseheimer serves on several not-for-profit boards: MPERS, MO Technology Corp, OATS, Inc. His wife, Rita, serves on the board of Pregnancy Assistance Center.
Grieseheimer claimed AG Production Utilization and Neighborhood Assistance Program tax credits on his taxes.
Jolie Justus
In addition to her senate duties, Justus works as an attorney at Shook, Hardy & Bacon LLP. Her father, James Justus, is an Associate Circuit Judge Taney County. Her mother, Jennifer Justus, works in the Branson School District.
Justus reported no real property holdings and no equity or bonds holdings.
Brad Lager
In addition to his senate duties, Lager works for LMS Communication LLC and Cerner Corporation. His wife, Stephanie, works at UMKC School of Pharmacy. His mother, Maureen works at the Maryville School District. His brother, Kent, works at Deputy Juvenile Officer in Nodaway County. Lager’s brother-in-law, sister-in-law, mother-in-law, and father-in-law all work in Northeast Nodaway School District. He also has a sister-in-law working in the Pattonsburg School District and a sister-in-law working at DFS in Nodaway County.
Lager reports ownership in Lager Enterprises LLC and LMS Communication LLC.
He also owns a residential development (with Craig Porter) in Andrew, and a commercial property in Andrew.
He owns several stocks including AG Edwards, Ameritrade, Berkshire Hathaway, and American Funds.
Jim Lembke
Lembke reported no other employment or income beyond his senate duties. His wife, Donna, works for the St. Louis Blues.
Lembke reported no real property holdings and no equity or bonds holdings.
Rob Mayer
In addition to his senate duties, Mayer works as attorney at Mayer Law Office. His wife, Nancy, worked at Three Rivers Community College, SEMO University, and the Dexter Public Schools.
Mayer reported ownership in Mayer Cattle Ranch, LLC, and additional income from farming and cattle sales.
Mayer owns 187 acres of farm land in Stoddard County.
He reported holdings in the Euro Pacific Growth Fund and Fundamental Investors.
Mayer serves on the boards of the Stoddard City Rescue Mission, MO Delta Center, MO Veterans’ Home. His wife serves on the board of MSTA.
Ryan McKenna
In addition to his senate duties, McKenna works for LECET, Laborers-Employers Cooperation and Education Trust. His wife, Angela, works at Savvis Communications.
McKenna reported ownership in MRH Properties LLC, but no other real property holdings and no equity or bonds holdings.
Gary Nodler
Nodler reported no employment outside of his senate duties.
Nodler reported no real property holdings and no equity or bonds holdings.
He did report miscellaneous income from his AG Edwards IRA.
David Pearce
In addition to his senate duties, Pearce works at First Community Bank. His wife, Teresa, works at Eye Care Specialties.
Pearce reported miscellaneous income from his wife’s work with the Shawnee Mound School District.
Pearce reported owning a home in Johnson County. He owned equities including Apple, Waddell & Reed, Edward Jones.
Pearce claimed a tax credit relating to New Beginning Pregnancy Resource Center on his taxes.
Chuck Purgason
In addition to his senate duties, Purgason works at Ozark Wings.
Purgason reported no real property holdings and no equity or bonds holdings.
Luann Ridgeway
In addition to her senate duties, Ridgeway works as an attorney at Ridgeway Law Office. Her husband, Richard, works at Sprint.
Ridgeway reported real property in Clay County, and equities in her Schwab IRA.
Scott Rupp
In addition to his senate duties, Rupp works at UMB Bank.
Rupp reported no real property holdings and no equity or bonds holdings.
Kurt Schaefer
In addition to his senate duties, Schaefer works as an attorney at Lathrop & Gage. His wife Stacia worked at City of Columbia and University of Missouri. His father-in-law, Bill Wyrick, is a senate door keeper.
Schaefer reported no real property holdings and no equity or bonds holdings.
Eric Schmitt
In addition to his senate duties, Schmitt works as an attorney at Lathrop & Gage.
Schmitt reported owning Progenics Pharmaceuticals stock.
Schmitt serves as a trustee for DeSmet Jesuit High School.
Delbert Scott
Scott reported no other employment of income beyond his senate job. His wife, Donna, works at the Missouri Dept. of Revenue. His son, Tad, works as chief of staff for Sen. Matt Bartle. His uncle, David Scott, is director of administration in Department of Public Safety.
Scott reported ownership in a Limited Partnership, Scotts of Lowry City, a retail home furnishings business.
Scott reported no real property holdings and no equity or bonds holdings.
Charlie Shields
In addition to his senate duties, Shields works for Heartland Health. His wife, Brenda, works for United Way of St. Joe.
Shields reported own several stocks including Macy’s, Oracle, Walmart, Chares Schwab, Pepsico and Cerner.
Shields serves on the boards of Heartland Health, Boy Scouts and AHEC. His wife serves on the boards of the St. Joseph Area Chamber of Commerce and the United Way of Greater St. Joe.
Wes Shoemyer
Wes Shoemyer reported no other employment or income beside his senate job. His wife, Cheryl, works for Shelby County. And his daughter, Wendy, was a paid intern for the Secretary of State.
Shoemyer reported ownership in SKS Farms.
He reported real property holdings of a farm in Monroe as well as equity stakes in American Energy Producers (Carrollton, MO), NEMO Grain Processor, Ozark Mountain Pork Coop, and Premium AG Products.
Showemyer claimed a New Gen Cooperative Tax Credit on his taxes.
Bill Stouffer
In addition to his senate duties, Stouffer reported employment at Precision Enterprises.
Stouffer owns Cedar Hill Farms.
Stouffer reported owning three farm properties in Saline County and a residential condo in Cole County.
Stouffer reported an equity stake in Alma Meat, Missouri Food and Fiber LLC, and Paseo BioFuels.
Carl Vogel
In addition to his senate duties, Vogel works at JC Coca Cola and JC Coke LLC. His wife, Kimberly, works at BWB Entertainment.
He reported ownership in a General Partnership, 20 Investment Club, and owning equity stakes in JC Coca Cola Bottling Co and JC Coke LLC.
Vogel serves as a director of the Central Bank, and on the boards of the JC YMCA and Great Rivers Boy Scouts.
Yvonne Wilson
Wilson reported no employment or income outside of her senate duties.
Wilson reported no real property holdings and no equity or bonds holdings.
Robin Wright-Jones
In addition to her duties in the senate, Jones works in real estate for her own company, Arjen One LLC.
Jones reported no real property holdings and no equity or bonds holdings.
Committeeperson Votes for House 57
Ward CommitteePerson Votes 294 total votes.
1 Sterling Miller 28
1 Sharon Tyus 28
4 Norma Leggette 5
4 James Clayborne 5
18 Ellen Todd 21
18 Jesse Todd 21
22 Nora Neal 46
22 Andre Williams 46
26 Angela Newsom 44
26 Joe Palm 44
27 Chris Carter 2
27 Pamela Boyd 2
28 Betul Ozmat 1
28 Joe Keaveny 1
Alternative Committee Votes - Senate 4 Special
Ward CommitteePerson Votes 132 total votes.
1 Talib El-Amin 5
1 Sharon Tyus 5
4 Norma Leggette 5
4 James Clayborne 5
8 Cara Jensen 4
8 Jack Stelzer 4
10 Bill Hill 5
10 Antoinette Poole 5
12 Jim Murphy 1
12 Janet Sullivan 1
14 Carol Howard 1
14 Harry Kennedy 1
15 Jan Clinite 4
15 Greg Christian 4
16 Thomas Hayes 4
16 Louise Tonkovich 4
17 Valerie Petty 1
17 Bob Hilgemann 1
18 Ellen Todd 5
18 Jesse Todd 5
19 Cecelia Grant 1
19 Mike McMillan 1
21 Anna Tyler 2
21 Arthur Washington 2
22 Nora Neal 5
22 Andre Williams 5
23 Francis Slay 5
23 Sharon Carpenter 5
24 John Corbett 5
24 Marie Waterhouse 5
26 Angela Newsom 5
26 Joe Palm 5
27 Chris Carter 4
27 Pamela Boyd 4
28 Betul Ozmat 4
28 Joe Keaveny 4
House 2010 Landscape
The House Landscape
There are 89 Republicans and 73 Democrats (the Brown seat is vacant, but will presumably be filled by a Democrat). Democrats would need an 8-seat pick-up in the 2010 elections to win back control of the House.
Open seats: there are 55 legislators (36 Republicans, 19 Democrats) who will be termed out in 2010. That’s a third of the body. So with that kind of turn-over, there will opportunities. But tempering a map full of open seats is the resurgent Republican Party. Having a Democrat in the White house has re-energized the Republicans. Aside from the Tea Parties, they are having an easier time of recruiting and, should the environment remain like this in 2010, they’ll have an easier time juicing their turn-out.
It’s been about three months since I did this run-down. There are three categories of races. The first are the races which I no longer expect to be competitive. They were on my “watch list” last spring, but I’m dropping them – for now. The second group is the new “watch list.” They probably won’t change hands, but there’s at least the possibility that if things drop a certain way, they could. The last group is the races that look to be most competitive at the present. As always, your feedback is welcome.
Dropping from Competitive List – Don’t Expect to be Targeted by Either Side
HD-5 – King City – Rep. Jim Guest (termed) – This was a top target, but Republicans have recruited former state senator Glenn Kippenstein. He’s a well established name and should win election. Democrats say they’re working on their own superstar recruit and I’ll have to add it back to the watch list if he comes through. Stay tuned.
HD-10 – Pike County – Rep. Terry Witte (termed) – His wife, Linda Witte, is running. Several people have said that they think she’s a stronger candidate than Terry. No longer competitive.
HD-24 – Columbia – Rep. Chris Kelly (freshman, kind of) – Always an expensive district to run in. Most think Kelly is safe, and I’ve yet to hear of an identified Republican candidate.
HD-28 – St. Joe – Rep. Rob Schaaf (termed) – Mike Sheehan will be back, but he lost by 11% last cycle. And this time without Schaaf to run against, he won’t have the Hospital Association money. Republican candidate Mik Chester, a pastor and former policeman, is already working and will win the solid Republican district.
HD-33 – Clay County – Rep. Jerry Nolte – He’s in a solid Dem district, but it’s hard to see how Dems can beat him after missing last time. The higher turn-out presidential cycle with a strong gubernatorial candidate at the top of the ticket was their chance. Not the lower turn-out, mid-term cycle.
HD-36 – Excelsior Springs – Rep. Bob Nance – same as above.
HD-85 – St. Louis County – Rep. Vicki Englund (freshman). Englund looks safe, but as a freshmen from a seat freshly taken from Republicans, Dems will be on guard. Neither of the two Republicans in the mix right now should worry Democrats.
HD-91 – St. Louis County – Jeanne Kirkton (freshman) – Although this district only leans Democratic, it’s leaning more and more that way every year.
HD-94 – St. Louis County – Rep. Rick Stream – Deb Lavender will be back again, but it’s hard to see what has changed in the past two years to close the 8% she lost by last cycle, particularly since Republicans will probably have a better environment and Stream’s position as vice-chair of Budget may appeal to constituents.
HD-107 – Bonne Terre – Rep. Linda Fischer (freshman) – This is a solid Democratic district. Republicans had their best chance last cycle with the Brad Robinson scandal and semi-celeb Louie Seiberlich. They took an impressive 48%, but that’ll be a high-water mark in that district for years to come.
HD-111 – Rep. Charlie Schlottach (termed). Tod Deyedt scored 44% against the incumbent with little cash. Some Dems think with no incumbent and some financial help, this could be competitive. But it’s a pretty reliably Republican district, so that’s unlikely.
HD-116 – Benton County – Rep. Tom Self (termed) – Republicans’ recruit Marlin Hammond is a basketball coach who’s in the Missouri High School Basketball Hall of Fame. He’s been coaching kids in the district for decades. Democratic recruit, Mike Stevenson, former superintendent, may be good, but like rock-scissors-paper, coach beats superintendent. Also in the Republican primary, Wanda Brown, the mother of Rod Jetton’s assistant, Nicole Brown. Still, Hammond is the next rep.
HD-119 – Dallas County – Rep. Larry Wilson (termed) – Pretty simple: it’s a solid Republican district. The Republican candidate, Sandy Crawford is a solid Republican.
Here are the Districts which look possibly competitive.
Possibly Competitive – Likely Party in Control Holds, But Worth Watching
HD-1 – Adair County – Rep. Brian Munzlinger (termed) – Without the incumbent, Dems are hopeful that this seat could be in play. But a lot remains uncertain here. The Dem candidate from last cycle, Keri Cottrell, is running again, but it’s unclear if she will be their preferred candidate this time. Republicans say they’re recruiting, but no name has surfaced.
HD-7 – Rep. Mike Lair (freshman) – It looks like Dems will be sending Harry Wyse back into battle in 2010. He scored an impressive 48.6% in 2008. But Lair is now an incumbent and the environment will be easier on Republicans, so I expect he’ll win re-election.
HD – 15 – St. Charles – Rep. Sally Faith – Democrats salivate at St. Charles, parts of which are slowly becoming more Democratic. But they need to strike before redistricting draws them tougher lines. District leans Republican and Democrats are still looking for their recruit. Faith should hold.
HD-18 – St. Charles – Rep. Anne Zerr (freshman) – Dem candidate last cycle imploded, but the district is 50-50. This time Gary McKiddy is Dem candidate, had 100 people at his kick-off, but it’s harder to beat an incumbent than take an open seat.
HD-19 – St. Charles – Rep. Cynthia Davis (termed) – Dems are putting up Matt Simmons who they describe as “perfectly fitted” to the district. Meanwhile Republicans have two candidates headed for a primary with rumors are that there is a third Republican waiting to jump in. Still this is the least Democratic of all the St. Charles seats on the list.
HD-35 – Clay County – Rep. Doug Ervin (termed) – The DPI is okay in this district (47ish) and will be competitive with the right candidate. Dem candidate from last cycle, Jim Baldwin, has an accident, but they say they are close to confirming a new candidate. It’s wait and see here.
HD-52 – Independence – Rep. Paul LeVota (termed) – Although Democrats have two candidates and a possible primary ahead, one of them – Robbie McKinnon – has garnered significant endorsements (including incumbent LeVota’s) and is poised to be their nominee. Republicans are looking for a candidate and say they will take a run at it if they get the right one.
HB-98 – Franklin County – Rep. Brian Nieves (termed) Dems say that this district is much less conservative than Nieves and that the DPI (which they peg around 49%) could put it in play. On the other hand, Republicans are jazzed that Paul Arand is a “rock-star” candidate who will put this one in the bank before it gets started.
HD-110 – Hillsboro – Rep. Belinda Harris (termed) – Harris has started a hand-off to her son, Ben, but county commissioner Ed Kemp is being tapped by other Dems as a better successor. Neither are star candidates. The Republicans have a great candidate, but I doubt it’s enough to overcome the Democratic nature of the district.
HD-113 – Jefferson City – Rep. Mark Bruns (termed) – only won with 52% when he entered office in 2002. Dems hope that it’ll be competitive again as an open seat. Their candidate is Cy Dashtaki; Dan Klindt is the Republican nominee.
HD-122 – Odessa – Rep. Mike McGhee – Rumors that he won’t be running for re-elect have Dems looking at this seat. Stay tuned I guess.
HD-153 – Alton - Rep. Mike Dethrow – had a close call in 2006, so Dems think it might be a target now that it’s open. Dems are said to be looking at that 2006 candidate Kenny Burke. Republicans aren’t acting worried.
Likely Competitive – Greatest Chances for Seats to Change Party
HD-6 – Marion County - Rep. Rachel Bringer (termed). District leans Republican so it’s one to watch now that it’s open again. Candidate recruitment will determine which way this race goes.
HD-17 – St. Charles – Rep. Kenny Biermann – Biermann took this seat in a very close race last cycle. The incumbent he beat Vicki Schneider is vowing a return. The district saw exponential growth which may have contributed to Schneider’s loss – her name ID wasn’t important when there were hundreds of new voters. Will a better 2010 environment bring Schneider back?
HD-21 – Mexico – Rep. Steve Hobbs (termed) – Kelly Schultz ran well last cycle, got good reviews, Dems are eager to try to win the seat of Joe Maxwell back. Republicans are said to be having troubles finding a strong candidate issues in this district.
HD-22 – Moberly – Rep. Therese Sander (termed) – This was a close one last cycle. Dems are probably going to trade in their candidate, Gail Brown, for a younger candidate who can do more door-knocking. District is ripe for taking. Both sides are still looking for the right candidate here.
HD-30 – Rep. Jason Brown (termed) – Lexi Norris, the Democratic recruit, is getting high marks. Dems say she’s 6th-generation from the district. Dems peg DPI at 49%. Still waiting on Republican recruit.
HD-54 – Blue Springs – Rep. Gary Dusenberg (termed) – never look competitive before, but might be as an open seat. It’s a Republican-leaning district. There are two Republican names in the mix right now, but Dems have coalesced around John Bullard, said to be one of the hardest working candidates they have.
HD-100 – South St. Louis County – Rep. Sue Schoemehl (termed) – Schoemehl has said that she’s working on a candidate, but this may be one of the toughest defenses for Democrats as the district leans Republican. Also Dems have yet to settle on their candidate. The first one out of the gate, Marty Zuniga, is a hard worker, but not the preferred candidate. Republicans hint that they’ll have a strong candidate here.
HD-120 – Clinton – Scott Largent (freshman) – Kristi Kenny has run for this seat twice and lost each time. She won’t be back for a third time. Instead it’s another lawyer who works in the same building as her. Dems say that he’s more personable and has stronger ties throughout the district. It’s a 50-50 district so could be interesting.
HD-121 – Johnson County – Denny Hoskins (freshman) – Just like Largent (above) Hoskins was given legislation to pass and given a pass on tough votes. As incumbents, they won’t be easy for Dems to beat. But here Democrats think their candidate, Courtney Cole, is doing everything right.
HD-152 – Eminence – Rep. J C Kuessner (termed) – it’s a conservative rural district, the kind that makes Dems nervous and has Republicans thinking they have a shot. Dems have a primary, but expect that Logan Merrill, an Iraq vet, will emerge as a strong general election candidate.
Conclusion
A great numbers of variables are undetermined including the final recruiting picture, the 2010 political environment and the extent to which Governor Jay Nixon helped out financially in leveling the playfield which has slanted against Democrats in recent cycles.
But given the above analysis, my current forecast would be for a two seat pick up for Democrats.
Democratic Votes in Nominating Special Election Candidate - 4-SD
Ward CommitteePerson Votes 144 total votes.
1 Talib El-Amin 6
1 Sharon Tyus 6
4 Norma Leggette 5
4 James Clayborne 5
8 Cara Jensen 4
8 Jack Stelzer 4
10 Bill Hill 5
10 Antoinette Poole 5
12 Jim Murphy 1
12 Janet Sullivan 1
14 Carol Howard 1
14 Harry Kennedy 1
15 Jan Clinite 4
15 Greg Christian 4
16 Thomas Hayes 5
16 Louise Tonkovich 5
17 Valerie Petty 2
17 Bob Hilgemann 2
18 Ellen Todd 5
18 Jesse Todd 5
19 Cecelia Grant 1
19 Mike McMillan 1
21 Anna Tyler 2
21 Arthur Washington 2
22 Nora Neal 5
22 Andre Williams 5
23 Francis Slay 5
23 Sharon Carpenter 5
24 John Corbett 5
24 Marie Waterhouse 5
26 Angela Newsom 6
26 Joe Palm 6
27 Chris Carter 5
27 Pamela Boyd 5
28 Betul Ozmat 5
28 Joe Keaveny 5