MOScout Weekender: Revenues Climb - PDMP Debate - KC Mayoral Poll - Hallway on Ethics Reform - Who Won the Week and more...
Revenue Climbs
Two very strong days in row, but still below zero. As of close of business April 18, state tax receipts were still down $39 million, or -0.55%.
Follow-Up PDMP
Sen. Cindy O'Laughlin on Facebook writes… “Senator Roy Blunt visited the Missouri senate this week and promoted Missouri implementing PDMP (something pushed as the answer to drug use but literally nobody has evidence to substantiate this claim.) On the other hand we do know illicit drugs are coming across our southern border along with a wave of immigrants that is nearing crisis levels. HOW ABOUT I VISIT D.C. NEXT WEEK AND RECOMMEND WE BUILD A BORDER WALL?”
But
One staunch conservative writes to MOScout with this analysis… Missourians are now under a PDMP governed by a council in St. Louis County that they didn’t elect. That nearly-statewide PDMP covering 80%+ of Missourians doesn’t have some of the privacy and Second Amendment safeguards that the legislation that [Rep. Holly] Rehder is pushing includes… that is why I would predict the conservative caucus ends up making a deal on PDMP to ensure what their constituents are under a better option than what is coming out of St. Louis County. I imagine they’ll include a sunset, too.
MOScout Poll: KC Mayoral Race
The MOScout Weekly Poll shows Quinton Lucas with a slight lead in the Kansas City mayoral race. Survey conducted April 17 through April 18, 2019. 618 likely 2019 Municipal General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2019 Municipal General Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.7%. See the full results here.
Q1: What is your opinion of Quinton Lucas?
Favorable: 50%
Unfavorable: 14%
No opinion: 36%
Q2: What is your opinion of Jolie Justus?
Favorable: 47%
Unfavorable: 22%
No opinion: 31%
Q3: The candidates in the June 18th General Election for Mayor of Kansas City are Quinton Lucas and Jolie Justus. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Quinton Lucas: 38%
Jolie Justus: 31%
Undecided: 31%
Q4: Do you think Kansas City needs to focus on development projects like a new airport, new downtown hotel and downtown housing development OR; do you think Kansas City needs to focus on neighborhood issues like crime, affordable housing and fixing roads and sidewalks?
Development projects: 17%
Neighborhood issues: 69%
Not sure: 14%
What It Means
Here’s one analysis: Lucas seems to have African-Americans locked up. Justus doing well with working class whites in Clay County. Battlegrounds are in Platte County and South KC. Lucas with the edge for now but I see it becoming a close race as money is spent.
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Ethics Reforms
This week, I asked: “How have the various ethics reforms (campaign contribution limits, lobbyist gift cap, and lobbyist waiting periods) worked so far for Missouri?” 23 replies…
RESULTS
1. Ethics reforms have been very good for Missouri… 0%
2. A mixed bag, but the good of ethics reforms has outweighed the bad… 30.4%
3. They have made no real impact…. 47.8%
4. Mixed bag, but the bad of ethics reforms has outweighed the good... 21.7%
5. Ethics reforms have been very bad for Missouri… 0%
Sample of Comments
· People adapt, especially lobbyists and legislators. For lobbyists doing their jobs and working the halls it is hard to imagine there is any real difference.
· People keep finding ways around ethics reform - necessity is the mother of invention, after all.
· Hopefully down the line it means less bad people stay in office because we have taken all the fun out of it.
· Things aren't much better or worse, just different. As a lobbyist it's a little more difficult to get to know legislators because there isn't as much social interaction.
· When you plug one hole you create a new one. We still have former legislators walking the halls. Sure, they aren’t registered but that doesn't mean they aren't lobbying. Now we have charities to donate to that happen to include a meal with legislators. Sure we aren’t buying them dinner but it sure seems like its money for access. We have caps on candidate committees. No need to worry...no we have this convenient and shockingly similarly named third party committee that the candidate doesn’t have anything to do with (wink) that you can stash your extra donations into.
Who Won the Week?
Mike Kehoe – The Supremes make him legit.
Mike Parson – The governor and his allied PAC, Uniting Missouri, own the top two spots in April’s list of committees with the most cash on-hand. That will give pause to potential challengers, in either the primary or the general.
Holly Rehder – Her signature issue, prescription drug monitoring program, gota boost from US Senator Roy Blunts visit to Jefferson City. AG Eric Schmitt also plugged his ongoing lawsuit against manufacturers. And some conservatives are making the case for a statewide PDMP rather than ceding the issue to St. Louis County.
Brian Millner – The president of the Missouri Community College Association emerged in the Title IX debate as a go-to guy, a trusted honest broker in the heated debate.
Mike Cierpiot – How do you become an impact player? You stick your neck out, and make a stand. It’s a truism that Sen. Bill Eigel learned and this week Cierpiot followed suit.
See a downloadable version here.
eMailbag on Senate 29
Rep. Brad Hudson is another potential candidate to replace Sater...he’s been one of the more impressive freshmen this year and could be a strong candidate if he runs for senate rather than reelection. While he’s still in his first term in the House, we’ve definitely seen it happen before with Wallingford, Dan Brown, and Engler.
Lobbyist Registrations
Jacqueline Clark added Holcim Inc, and Aggregate Industries Management, Inc.
Candice Doenges added Lance Griffith.
Tony Dugger, Andrew Foley and Jim Foley added Missouri Cattlemen’s Association.
$5K+ Contributions
American Property Casualty Insurance Association Political Account - $18,239 from American Property Casualty Insurance Association.
Uniting Missouri PAC - $25,000 from Heavy Constructors Association.