MOScout Weekender: Senate 1 Poll - Brown Winds Down Pelopidas - Hallway on PQ - WWTW and more...
Remington/MOScout Poll: Senate 1
Survey conducted September 9 through September 10, 2020. 646 likely 2020 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2020 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.8% with a 95% level of confidence. See full results here.
Q1: What is your opinion of Donald Trump?
Favorable: 40%
Unfavorable: 54%
No opinion: 6%
Q2: What is your opinion of Joe Biden?
Favorable: 53%
Unfavorable: 40%
No opinion: 7%
Q3: Candidates in the 2020 General Election for State Senate are the Republican David Lenihan and the Democrat Doug Beck. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
David Lenihan: 36%
Doug Beck: 43%
Undecided: 21%
Q4: What do you think is the most pressing concern for state government?
Dealing with the coronavirus: 31%
Reducing violent crime: 35%
Creating more jobs: 9%
Improving healthcare: 10%
Something else: 5%
Not sure: 11%
Brown’s Winds Down Memo
Memo from Travis Brown to his employees…
With the loss of major client revenue, we have no choice but to wind down our major operations this month.
I regret to inform you that your employment is terminated effective COB on September 10, 2020…
If you have personal items in your office, please retrieve those at your very earliest convenience.
If you have a company vehicle, you will be receiving instructions…
Thanks for your hard work and dedication. I am extremely proud of what each and every one of you has contributed to this point.
Travis
And
This made me think of a recent article I read about when to use emails versus a text versus a face-to-face. See it here.
The best way to communicate turns out to depend on how transparent you want to be about your emotions. “If you have nothing to hide, the richest medium is best,” said Prof. Brodsky—a face-to-face meeting if possible, a video chat when it’s not…
Email is the best form of communication for hiding your true colors and the worst in terms of how honest the sender is perceived to be, the study shows. That finding rings true to me. At high and low moments in my life, an email of congratulations or condolence didn’t cut it—especially from my intimates. Tapping out a message seemed cheap….
FWIW
The article came via a link in a once-a-week email I get called The Flack, put out by Paul Byrne. It’s short and there’s always something interesting in it. I bet if you email him (paul@byrnepr.com), he’d add you to his list.
Driving the Night: Truman Dinner
MO Dems’ big gala, the Truman Dinner is tonight. It’s virtual. Here’s the line-up of speeches:
Rep. Emanuel Cleaver
Rep. Vicki Englund
Mr. Rich Finneran
Mr. Yinka Faleti
Councilwoman Alissia Canady
Ms. Cori Bush
Sen. Jill Schupp
Auditor Nicole Galloway
Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey
MOScout’s Hallway Index: PQ Aftershocks?
I asked lobbyists what they thought the impact of the Senate’s PQ would be. 23 replies…
RESULTS
1. A more productive session… 0%
2. No meaningful impact… 65.2%
3. A less productive session… 34.8%
Sample of Comments
· Not a huge impact but continues to chip away at relationships.
· Gnashing of teeth followed by back to normal - just like always.
· I don't see how this helps the senate one bit. Seems like we have a communication problem with the GO, Senate and House.
· There may be a little underlying frustration but no meaningful impact. However, with turnover of D Senators it will be important for them to know how to make the majority "pay" for a PQ should there be the threat of one during regular session. I hope they all have Sifton's cell phone number and use it.
· This was a missed opportunity which is odd because Senate Leadership have been mostly adept at not tripping over themselves. The problem is this probably dooms actually important issues like Covid liability and other items important to large constituencies.
· Four months with a major election in the middle is a couple political lifetimes away.
· More immediately think it damaged whatever hope there is for a special session on COVID business liability protection.
· I don’t think this matters a whole lot. The Senate is going to look a lot different next year than this year. The biggest impact on the session will be the elections.
· Dems will want to make a point to the new members that PQs are not a good option for the path going forward. It will be effective unless they overplay their hand, then it may have the reverse effect.
· It won’t have an impact on the session, generally. But there will be consequences. I assume a handful of appointments get tanked. That’s the real leverage senators have now that Ron Richard has turned the Senate into the House.
And
From one observer with very good seats to the drama… Last week’s PQ was a world of difference from the last one (rolling back minimum wage hike in StL). In that PQ, tensions were sky high, senators shouting and chaos consumed the chamber. This time though the atmosphere was jovial and easygoing at 3 am. No one appeared upset or frustrated. The minority floor leading was smiling and appeared in a good mood. Nasheed and others were giggling with the R’s when not on microphone. My take is that it was simply easier for Dems to be PQ’d than have to explain to their bases why they constructed some sort of compromise. It’ll be tough to buy Dem outrage over this PQ if they filibuster the journal the next time the Senate is in session.
Who Won the Week?
Doug Beck – MOScout poll shows him with a solid lead to hold Senate 1 for Dems in November.
Dean Plocher – Catches some momentum in the floor leader’s race after the primary elections, and now turmoil in RexLand which had been his opponent’s biggest financial supporter.
Elijah Haahr – holds all the cards in deciding how Parson’s special session comes to a close.
Josh Hawley – Whether it’s deciding what Netflix can show, or how long you can look at your iPhone, Missouri’s junior senator continues to stretch the definition of “conservative.” And still the Republican president says he’s on the short list for the Supreme Court.
Find a downloadable version here.
$5K+ Contributions
American Property Casualty Insurance Association Political Account - $28,323 from American Property Casualty Insurance Association.
CLEAN Missouri - $10,000 from Brown & Crouppen PC.
CLEAN Missouri - $10,000 from SWMW Law.
Catalyst PAC - $20,000 from Emerson Electric Co.
MO Opportunity PAC - $15,000 from Cheyenne International, LLC.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $7,100 from Citizens to Elect Bruce DeGroot.
Democratic Association of Secretaries of State - $25,000 from Democratic Association of Secretaries of State.
Keep Government Accountable - $10,000 from Edward Snowdon Jr.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Sam Brownback, Steve Helms, and Drew Dampf.
Sunday: Ann Wagner and Sam Lee.