MOScout Daily Update: Abortion Messaging for Dems - Dueling Messages in Senate 15 - Ashcroft Terminates Committee - CATO Grades Parson and more…

Watching the Abortion IP

Another $1.5M flowed into the campaign to pass Amendment 3 and reverse the abortion ban.  That brings the total amount raised for the campaign to well over $25 million.  And interestingly, more than $5 million in just the past two weeks.

These new huge checks could be the completion of previously committed resources from outside groups.  But it could also be – and feels like – insurance money because the question is still a tight, and could be lost.

Meanwhile one reader wonders if the A3 campaign is missing rural voters: Yes for 3 seems to be completely ignoring the conservative rural areas, even those with sizeable pockets of pro-choice voters.   Kirksville has Truman State and A.T. Still University and yet I have not seen a single effort to get those supporters out to the polls.   The area is covered with "No on 3" signs.  Perhaps the thinking is the spend out here isn't worth the few extra "yes" votes? 

Dems Trying to Broaden A3 Message

I am told that A3 is winning in every one of the House battleground districts.  The question, for Dems, is how to capture those voters.  They want pro-A3 voters to be checking the Dem boxes at the top of the ballot, long before they get to the bottom where the constitutional questions are placed.

For starters, some – like Sen. Doug Beck (below) – are telling voters that a Yes on A3 isn’t enough.  Because Republican legislators will target the new constitutional right, they need to elect Democrats, as well, who will defend it.

But there’s also a hope that the millions being spent by the pro-A3 campaign are reinforcing a message that Dems have been working for several cycles: the Republican supermajority is extreme.  They go too far – on abortion yes, but on a whole range of issues.  A3 is just shorthand for all the complaints of about the legislature during the modern Republican era. 

·       The Republican-controlled legislature tried to pass right to work.

·       The Republican-controlled legislature wouldn’t expand Medicaid.

·       The Republican-controlled legislature won’t prohibit unaccompanied 15 years from possessing a firearm on public land.

·       The Republican-controlled legislature won’t get the sprawling grey machines under control.

Flood of HRCC Money, But No Silver Bullet

In the large contributions today, there’s another $150,000 in contributions to the House Republican Campaign Committee.  Those dollars will ultimately find their way into the battleground House districts – and maybe into a few lean GOP districts just to make sure there aren’t any Election night surprises.

But… there’s a diminishing return on spending.  After a certain point, it doesn’t really matter.  That is, if the 14th mailer doesn’t convince them, what are the chances that the 15th will do the trick?

If between abortion and Donald Trump, Missouri suburban voters decide to vote Democratic up and down the ballot, there’s no magic bullet in HRCC’s war-chest to prevent that.

Senate 15: Dueling Messages

In Senate 15, David Gregory has pulled down a few key endorsements this month.  The St. Louis County Police Association and the Missouri State Council of Fire Fighters both issued endorsements.

That dovetails nicely with the pro-Gregory ad attacking Joe Pereles for donating to Congresswoman Cori Bush, and therefore advancing the “defund the police” movement.

Pereles meanwhile seems to have focused his attack on Gregory’s support for the abortion ban.

·       I guess in a little over two weeks we’ll see which message (law and order vs reproductive freedom) resonates more with those suburban voters.

Ashcroft Terminates Committee

Jay Ashcroft terminated his candidate committee.  That doesn’t mean that he’ll never run for office again.  But it’s a contrast to Bill Eigel who now has an active state campaign committee (for St. Charles County Executive), and an exploratory federal committee (for Congress).

·       Ashcroft wrote a $7,076 check to the committee to balance the books as they closed the committee.

CATO Gives Parson “D” on Fiscal Policies

The right-wing CATA Institute issued their “Fiscal Policy Report Card on America’s Governors.”  See it here.

I was surprised that they gave Governor Mike Parson a “D.”  From their commentary: Parson signed legislation in 2021 increasing Missouri’s gas tax from 17 cents per gallon to 29.5 cents per gallon by 2025… In 2022, Parson vetoed a bill to provide one-time tax rebates because he wanted permanent tax rate cuts. In 2023, he signed SB 3, which cut the top individual income tax rate to 4.95 percent and may reduce it to 4.5 percent depending on budget conditions… In 2023, Parson approved a bill reducing income taxes on retirement income, providing savings of about $300 million a year… Parson has been a tax reformer, but he has dropped the ball on spending control. The general fund budget has jumped from $10.5 billion in 2022 to an expected

$15.6 billion in 2025, a 49 percent increase in just three years.

·       One MOScouter: This is the kind of thing that happens when you’re Governor of a red state but have no conservative governing agenda. 

Lobbyists Registrations

Ray Freese Bozarth added Missouri Credit Union Association.

$5K+ Contributions

Missourians for Constitutional Freedom (pro-choice IP) - $1,550,000 from The Fairness Project (Washington, DC).

Missourians for Constitutional Freedom - $89,721 from Sixteen Thirty Fund (Washington, DC).

American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $10,000 from Stand Up to Stigma PAC.

Majority Forward (Senate Dems) - $25,000 from Safer Families for Missouri.

Real Action PAC (pro-Christ) - $10,000 from David Steward.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $50,000 from Missouri Alliance PAC.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $30,000 from Karla Eslinger for Senate Committee.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $25,000 from Chappell4MO.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $20,000 from David Steward.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $15,000 from Buck Up PAC (pro-Allen).

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $5,875 from Citizens to Elect David Casteel.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $5,400 from Haden for State Representative.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $5,200 from Missourians for Shields.

Missouri First Conservative PAC - $25,000 from Rex Sinquefield.

Missourians for a Fair Economy - $25,000 from Missouri Jobs with Justice.

UFCW Active Ballot Club-Missouri Federal Committee - $15,000 from United Food and Commercial Workers Active Ballot Club (Washington, DC).

Ashcroft For Missouri - $7,076 from Jay Ashcroft.

Committee for Independence MO - $10,000 from Heavy Constructors Association.

International Union of Painters & Allied Trades PAT Federal PAC - $35,000 from IUPAT Political Action Together Political Committee (Hanover, MD).

Graves Garrett, LLC PAC - $10,000 from Parents for Safer Streets.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Warren Erdman, Jamilah Nasheed, Scott Rupp, Ray Hefner, and Sara Baker.