MOScout Daily Update: Bailey PAC Ad on Dec 1 2007 - Another Income Tax Cut? - Waiting on Parson Line-Items - Rizzo Resigns - Bowman Implications and more…
Pro-Bailey Ad Compares 2007 Lives
Liberty and Justice PAC, the pro-Andrew Bailey PAC, released a humdinger of an ad. It juxtaposes a day in the life of Bailey and Will Scharf back in 2007.
“2007, December 1st, Iraq. A battalion of American tanks patrols these streets protecting our freedom abroad. Leading them: Andrew Bailey. That same day Princeton campus, Charter Club. Will Scharf gets charged with selling alcohol to underage girls. Andrew Bailey served his country with honor. Will Scharf threatened to sue the police who charged him. Who do you want defending your state and your family?”
And
Making the rounds is a memo from Bailey’s consultants. See it here.
Public Opinion Strategies recently completed a survey of 500 Republican voters in Missouri on behalf of Liberty and Justice PAC. The survey was completed June 20-24, 2024, and has a margin of error of +/- 4.38% in 95 out of 100 cases…
KEY FINDINGS
1. Attorney General Andrew Bailey is a popular incumbent. By a four to one margin, Missouri Republicans approve of the job performance of Attorney General Andrew Bailey, 45% approve –11% disapprove…
2. Bailey has a wide lead over Scharf. Andrew Bailey more than doubles Will Scharf on the ballot, 52%-19%.... Among the voters who have heard of both candidates, Bailey leads 64%-19%.
3. Momentum favors Bailey. We asked poll respondents, “Has what you've seen, read or heard recently about (candidate name) given you a more favorable or less favorable impression of him?” The campaign information flow offers “advanced warning” of future ballot movement. Currently, Bailey’s information flow is a net positive (+20) while Scharf’s information flow is a net negative (-3). In such an information environment, it will be a challenge for Scharf to close a more than 30-point gap on the ballot.
Budget Watch
Sunday is the end of the fundraising quarter. But it’s also the end of the fiscal year. So two big stories to watch for…
· Line-Item Vetoes – With the new fiscal year starting Monday, it makes sense that Governor Mike Parson will call a press conference very soon, and announce his actions on the budget. The assumption is that there will be a lot of line-item vetoes as he slices away various projects he views as fat. One source thinks the governor will especially scrutinize items associated with House Budget Chair Cody Smith as Smith was not accommodating to the governor’s budget as Parson would have liked. We’ll see…
· Another Income Tax Cut? – My gut says it won’t happen. As of the close of business Wednesday, state tax receipts were $178 million ahead of last year. That’s just a bit below the $200 million trigger for another .1% to come off the state income tax. Will it happen? Again, we’ll see…
What NY Means for MO?
Politico’s Playbook looks at the implications of Tuesday night’s results on the CD-1 Democratic primary.
ST. LOUIS SHOWDOWN — Last night, Rep. JAMAAL BOWMAN (D-N.Y.) became the first member of the progressive “Squad” to be knocked out of Congress, losing his primary to Westchester County Executive GEORGE LATIMER by 16 points. We’ll get to the fallout from that result in just a moment, but first a reminder that Bowman isn’t the only Squadster to face a dire threat from a fellow Democrat this year. A new poll obtained by Playbook shows the race between Rep. CORI BUSH (D-Mo.) and St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney WESLEY BELL is in a statistical dead heat ahead of the Aug. 6 primary.
· One MOScouter muses: Not sure how much AIPAC has supported Bell so far, but this win may make them more confident.
And
One reader wonders if the Trump endorsement losing its value? From Mediaite: Three Republican candidates backed by former President Donald Trump lost their primaries on Tuesday in a blow to the 45th president.
· In the Utah Senate primary to replace Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT), Trump-backed candidate Trent Staggs was defeated by Rep. John Curtis (R-UT), who did not support Trump in the 2024 Republican presidential primary.
· In South Carolina, Trump-backed candidate and evangelical pastor Mark Burns lost the primary for the state’s 3rd Congressional District to nurse practitioner Sheri Biggs.
· In Colorado, Jeff Crank beat Trump-endorsed candidate Dave Williams for the state’s 5th Congressional District, winning with a substantial majority.
Tonight’s Debate
I’m told that Senator Eric Schmitt has been asked by Donald Trump to attend the presidential debate and to serve in a spin capacity both before and after the debate.
Onder’s 2nd Ad
Former Sen. Bob Onder released his second TV commercial in the 3-CD Republican primary. In the ad, Onder recalls his former role in the Missouri Senate as an obstructor, calling himself Dr. No for preventing liberal legislation from passing. See it here.
Plocher Forms New Interim Committee
Speaker Dean Plocher formed a new interim committee. This is the Special Interim Committee on Illegal Immigrant Crimes. Rep. Lane Roberts was named chair, and Rep. Aaron McMullen is vice-chair.
· It may sound too cynical, but I do agree with the reader who sent me this assessment: “They’re gonna try to generate earned media for Dean – kinda ironic for a speaker who spent most of his speakership rebutting charges that he abused government resources for personal/political gain…”
Rizzo Resigns
Minority Leader John Rizzo resigned to become the Executive Director of the Jackson County Sports Complex Authority. Rizzo was term-limited. This was expected.
· This puts Sen. Doug Beck leading the minority in September’s special session.
Lobbyists Registrations
Mark Rhoads added The Fulcrum Group US LLC OBO Comfort Dental.
Jay Hahn added Tata America International Corporation "TCS".
Ryan Rowden deleted MO Coalition for Video Lottery, LLC.
$5K+ Contributions
Gladius PAC (pro-Christofanelli) - $50,000 from Rex Sinquefield.
Gladius PAC - $40,000 from Conservative Justice PAC.
The Wonderdog PAC (pro-Kurtis Gregory) - $40,000 from Conservative Justice PAC.
The Leadbelt PAC (pro-Henderson) - $40,000 from Conservative Justice PAC.
True Patriot PAC (pro-Brattin) - $20,000 from Conservative Justice PAC.
American Dream PAC - $10,000 from Christopher Hite.
American Dream PAC - $10,000 from John Maupin.
American Dream PAC - $10,000 from Lawrence Champman.
American Dream PAC - $10,000 from John Bommarito.
American Dream PAC - $5,650 from Thomas Otoole.
STLCO PAC (pro-Williams) - $50,000 from B PAC (pro-Williams).
STLCO PAC - $25,000 from Robert Blitz.
STLCO PAC - $25,000 from Eric Holand.
Another Viceroy PAC - $102,000 from J&J Ventures Gaming of Missouri, LLC.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $20,000 from Jim Walton (Bentonville, AR).
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $10,000 from Missouri Health Plan Association PAC.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $20,000 from AGC of MO PAC.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $10,000 from Friends of John Voss.
Gromowsky for Prosecutor - $10,000 from KCFOP PAC.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $30,000 from Cheyenne International LLC (Grover, NC).
Missourians for Constitutional Freedom - $15,809 from American Civil Liberties Union of Missouri, Inc.
Missourians for Constitutional Freedom - $10,000 from Susan Stiritz.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Ross Branson, May Scheve Reardon, and Bob Hilgemann.