MOScout Weekender: McDowell's Horrible No-Good October Quarter - Senate 22 Poll - Hallway Likes Wieland - Who Won the Week and more...

McDowell October Quarter

Saundra McDowell, the Republican auditor, reported raising $38,927 in her October quarterly report.  She now has $26,457 on-hand.  This is an astonishing low sum of money for a statewide candidate.  Additionally, the campaign is still carrying $23,809 in debt.

Galloway’s 30-Day After report showed $1.2 million on-hand.  She hasn’t filed her October report yet. October reports are due Monday.

And

The PAC that’s associated with her candidacy, Accountability PAC, filed a limited activity report.  That means it didn’t raise or spend more than $500.

 

MOScout Weekly Poll: Senate 22

This week, the MOScout Poll looks at Senate 22, and finds some kind of curious results.  Donald Trump who won the district with 68% in 2016 is down to 49% approval.  Yet Republican incumbent Paul Wieland has a ten-point lead over Democrat Robert Butler (thought Wieland is still under 50%).  Meanwhile Claire McCaskill edges ahead of Josh Hawley.

See the full results here.

And if you are like me and your eyes can’t help by widen over the breakdowns from the House districts (Trump weakest in House 97 and House 113), don’t fool yourself with numbers!  No information is better than bad information.  The whole survey had 460 respondents.  When you look at 1/5 of that inside House districts, the margin of error gets orbital – and statistically unreliable.  Be careful.

TOPLINES

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump’s job performance as President?

Approve: 49%

Disapprove: 45%

Not sure: 6%

 

Q: Candidates in the November 2018 General Election for United States Senate are the Republican Josh Hawley and the Democrat Claire McCaskill. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Josh Hawley: 47%

Claire McCaskill: 50%

Undecided: 3%

 

Q: Candidates in the November 2018 General Election for State Senate are the Republican Paul Wieland, the Democrat Robert Butler, and the Libertarian Richie Camden. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Paul Wieland: 48%

Robert Butler: 38%

Richie Camden: 4%

Undecided: 10%

 

MOScout’s Hallway Index: Senate 22

Look out!  It’s a double-header today.  I asked the MOScout focus group of lobbyists and hallwayers to give me their read of the Senate 22 race as well.  The hallway is bullish on the incumbent.

Will Paul Wieland win re-election?  29 responses….

Highly Likely: 31%

Somewhat Likely: 51.7%

Somewhat Unlikely: 17.2%

Highly Unlikely:   0%

No Opinion:     0%

 

Sample of comments

Highly Likely: Unions are supporting [Wieland], all of Jeff Co will go red.  Plus Vescovo is running a full campaign in the heart of the Senate seat that should help pull Wieland though.

 

Somewhat Likely: Trump’s continued popularity among conservative blue-collar workers should help Wieland hold onto his seat.  Don’t think the “blue wave” will stretch into the exurbs.

 

Somewhat Unlikely: In toss ups like this, I tend to go with the hardest working candidate.  And that is not Paul Wieland in this race.

 

Who Won the Week?

Nicole Galloway – The Saundra McDowell show continues with Jason Hancock reporting that she exaggerated her work experience, and an October report with debts almost as high as her cash on-hand.

Ameren – After years of bruising battles in the capitol, the utility giant finally got their grid modernization bill passed and is showing results.  This week, it was reported they were seeking contractors for $1B in grid upgrades, and their special incentive rate helped land the Quaker Windows expansion.

Prop D – Getting their commercial out early is a smart move given that the airwaves are only going to get more cluttered from here.  Plus Governor Parson will be blazing the state (13 cities next week) to stump for the measure.

The Courts – From the Voter ID law, to the dismantling of the merit system, once again everything seems to end up in the courts.

Get the downloadable version here.

 

Help Wanted

Missouri Budget Project seeks State Policy Fellow.  “The State Policy Fellow is responsible for assisting in the production of timely, accessible, and credible research and analysis on state budget, tax, health and economic issues under the direction of the MBP Director of Research. The Fellow will engage with advocates and community groups to help advance MBPs policy priorities and will provide general support to MBP staff. MBP seeks to expand the diversity of voices that speak with authority in state policy debates by identifying highly motivated candidates who have experience with communities that are traditionally underrepresented.  A demonstrated interest in conducting public policy analysis from a racial equity lens is preferred...”   See the ad here.

 

Lobbyist Registrations

Michael Michelson added American Massage Therapy Association MO Chapter.

Sarah Schlemeier deleted LKQ Corporation.

Katherine Casas, Brian Grace, Kelvin Simmons, and Rodney Boyd deleted ETS.

Jessica O’Connell deleted Beyond Meat.

 

$5K+ Contributions

Middle Class Missouri PAPC - $25,000 from Missouri AFL-CIO COPE.

House Victory Committee - $25,000 from MSCEW PAC.

Missouri Insurance Political Action Committee - $10,000 from UnitedHealth Group Inc.

SEIU Missouri State Council PAC - $160,000 from SEUI MO/KS State Council. 

Missouri Health Plan Association PAC - $10,000 from United Health Group Inc.

Find the Cures - $44,500 from Bradley Bradshaw.

Find the Cures - $5,005 from Onder Law LLC.

Property Casualty Insurers Association of America Political Account - $20,000 from Property Casualty Insurers Association of America.

Middle Class Missouri PAC - $12,500 from Sheet Metal Workers International Association Local Union No. 36.

Middle Class Missouri PAC - $25,000 from MO Organizing & Voter Engagement Action.

McCownGordon PAC - $5,619 from J Brett Gordon.

Middle Class Missouri PAC - $25,000 from United Food and Commercial Workers Union Local 655.

Missouri Class Missouri PAC – 30.000 from Missouri NEA PAC.

Next Gen GOP PAC - $25,000 from David Steward II.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $35,000 from Friends of Elijah Haahr.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc – $25,000 from Citizens for Dogan.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc – $5,001 from Citizens for Eggleston.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $25,000 from David Steward.