The Big Picture: GOP Money Advantage
There may be a blue wave nationally, but Republican here in Missouri are well positioned to survive the year with limited casualties. One of their key advantages: money.
The House Republican Campaign Committee has achieved a record-breaking $4.2M raised for this cycle. The previous record was $4.1M in 2010.
Additionally, if you scan through the October numbers (below), Republicans have mostly outraised their Democratic challengers in the battleground districts. Sometimes the numbers are so lopsided it’s as if the seats have been surrendered.
· House 11 would have been on any Dems’ target list a year ago. Republican Brenda Shields has over $33K on-hand. The Democrat has $663 in the bank.
· House 32 is a suburban district which should be in play this year. The Democrat has only filed Limited Activity reports, meaning they haven’t raised or spent over $500.
· House 118 is the last blue seat in Jefferson County. The Democrat has over $3k on-hand against a Republican with $26K on-hand.
· The list goes on…
It’ll have to be some massive tsunami for a blue wave to materialize which can overcome this Republican majority bulwarked by money.
Speaker-in-waiting Elijah Haahr has personally raised and contributed $256K, eclipsing John Diehl’s 2014 record of $250k.
Governor Mike Parson is traveling the state this week stumping for Prop D, the transportation tax. It’s a stark contrast to his relatively sidelined presence during the right to work fight over the summer. In hindsight, it shows some strategic brilliance.
If Parson had campaigned to keep RTW, the measure would still have been deep-sixed by a wide margin, and he would have depleted his honeymoon capital ill-advisedly.
As it worked out, he’s fresh off a listening tour and huddling with state leaders just in time to champion the infrastructure tax. It’s the cornerstone of his economic agenda which he’s made the singular focus of his tenure.
Lobbyists have noted Parson’s mantra of workforce development and infrastructure investment. Look for folks to pitch their particular items to the second floor in terms of how it fits into that larger agenda. This may require some creativity at times.
Galloway Hits McDowell
Auditor Nicole Galloway released her second commercial. It’s basically a brief history of the “train wreck” McDowell campaign – lawsuits, eviction, garnished wages – before presenting Galloway as the sane alternative. See the ad here.
With only $20K on-hand McDowell won’t be able to answer the charges – except on Twitter.
Galloway’s report showed another strong number: $203K raised; $1.3 million on-hand.
State Senate October Reports
Here are the senate races I’m watching… incumbents are italicized. First number is the total amount they’ve raised this race (not just this report). The second number is their current cash (October report) on-hand.
Mike Cierpiot - $72,978 raised; $133,179 COH.
Hillary Shields - $240,014 raised; $146,801 COH.
Paul Wieland - $530,459 raised; $219,199 COH.
Robert Butler - $102,934 raised; $21,730 COH.
Lincoln Hough - $50,750 raised; $263,136 COH.
Charlie Norr - $12,965 raised $20,897 COH.
Tony Luetkemeyer - $268,971 raised; $229,735 COH.
Martin Rucker II - $49,488 raised; $120,241 COH.
State House October Reports
And the House races I’ve been watching. As with the state senate races, Republicans are listed first, with Democrats below them. And again total raised this race, followed by cash on-hand.
Danny Busick - $15,966 raised; $6,348 COH.
Joni Perry - $27,739 raised; $8,288 COH.
Bill Falkner - $9,040 raised; $4,676 COH.
Shane Thompson - $15,876 raised; $9,598 COH.
Brenda Shields - $68,395 raised; $33,740 COH.
Brady Lee O’Dell - $2,206 raised; $663 COH.
Vic Allred - $56,404 raised; $21,039 COH.
Mitch Weber - $34,630 raised; $4,953 COH.
Kevin Corlew - $46,746 raised; $40,067 COH.
Matt Sain - $19,407 raised; $5,014 COH.
Mary Hill - $4,400 raised; $11,924 COH.
Mark Ellebracht - $28,321 raised; $49,034 COH.
Bill Kidd - $7,450 raised; $61,994 COH.
Jessica Merrick - $4,213 raised; $1,069 COH.
Dan Stacy - $25,339 raised; $13,998 COH.
Travis Hagewood - $16,959 raised; $4,593 COH.
Jeff Coleman - $19,065 raised; $6,236 COH.
Janice Brill has only filed Limited Activity reports.
Rebecca Roeber - $28,772 raised; $38,511 COH.
Jim Ripley - $21,333 raised; $12,051 COH.
Tom Lovell - $19,292 raised; $25,342 COH.
Keri Ingle - $78,404 raised; $53,880 COH.
Cheri Toalson Reisch - $22,916 raised; $17,488 COH.
Maren Bell Jones - $11,958 raised; $2,799 COH.
Chuck Basye - $148,896 raised; $48,213 COH.
Adrian Plank - $27,547 raised; $8,088 COH.
Sara Walsh - $16,047 raised; $41,280 COH.
Michela Skelton - $58,041 raised; $38,704 COH.
Tom Hannegan - $10,057 raised; $26,261 COH.
Bill Otto - $44,993 raised; $29,407 COH.
Matt Matthiesen - $35,052 raised; $25,078 COH.
Paula Brown – $38,106 raised; $19,327 COH.
Jim Murphy – $36,008 raised; $8,659 COH.
Jean Pretto - $38,734 raised; $13,788 COH.
Michael O’Donnell - $6,500 raised; $4,442 COH.
Mike Walter - $35,204 raised; $12,374 COH.
David Gregory - $283,789 raised; $71,085 COH.
Erica Hoffman - $36,644 raised; $15,788 COH.
Mary Elizabeth Coleman - $17,973 raised; $22,799 COH.
Mike Revis - $67,094 raised; $29,115 COH.
Adam Schnelting - $3,550 raised; $30,631 COH.
Peggy Sherwin - $2,009 raised; $6,489 COH.
Shane Roden - $7,950 raised; $9,199 COH.
Phoebe Ottomeyer - $5,245 raised; $3,249 COH.
Dan Shaul - $64,875 raised; $43,606 COH.
Karen Settlemoir-Berg - $8,270 raised; $33,741 COH.
Becky Ruth - $57,131 raised; $24,259 COH.
Dennis McDonald - $2,677 raised; $1,096 COH.
Dale Wright - $40,755 raised; $25,001 COH.
Bill Kraemer - $6,060 raised; $359 COH.
Michael McGirl - $38,891 raised; $26,150 COH.
Barbara Marco - $12,764 raised; $3,454 COH.
Steve Helms – $9,095 raised; $40,005 COH.
Rob Bailey - $13,900 raised; $5,054 COH.
Something to Chew on: Trump Voter Not Necessarily Republican Voter
I found this line from a Washington Post article intriguing. See the article here.
Republican Lou Barletta is trailing Sen. Bob Casey (D) by double digits — in Pennsylvania, where Trump’s win shocked the world — despite running as a full-blown Trumper. Why? A strategist for Barletta explains it to The Post this way: “One false assumption that was made was that a Trump voter from the 2016 election was necessarily a Republican voter.”
It does make me think of those Missouri House or Senate districts where we saw crazy high Trump margins. How many votes for Trump were more accurately votes against something (Obamacare, Hillary, the “establishment”)? And how will they vote now, without something to vote against?
Eric Greitens’ campaign committee still alive and kicking. It blew through another $256K last quarter mostly on legal fees, including $15K to Chalmers Burch & Adams LLC, $68K to Clark Hill PLC, and $114K to Husch Blackwell LLP. Interesting to see former staffer Scott Turk pulling down $5K a month as a campaign worker. I guess you ride the gravy train as long as its moving. $861 COH left, so the train probably rolling on for nine more months….
The Missouri Ethic Commission dismissed a complaint against Rep. Rob Vescovo finding no reasonable ground that he was double-dipping between per diems and campaign travel expenses. See it here.
Sen. Jamilah Nasheed’s Birthday Party – Union Station, St. Louis – 6PM.
Creve Coeur Olivette Chamber of Commerce seeks Executive Director. “We are currently seeking an energetic self-starter, a results-driven leader that is able to promote the businesses, community and Chamber within the St. Louis region. If you are looking for an exciting career that lets you help businesses and charities grow their organizations, we may be a perfect match!..”
Gephardt Institute for Civic & Community Engagement at Washington University St. Louis seeks Associate Director. “The Associate Director will serve as chief of staff at the Gephardt Institute for Civic and Community Engagement, working closely with the Director to advance the institute’s mission. This position will oversee institute operations to ensure high quality programs, services, and communications for all campus and community stakeholders; efficient administrative processes; and the operationalization and evaluation of institute strategies….” See the ad here.
Eapen Thampy added Pharmlabs LLC.
Matthew Block deleted Pinnacle Entertainment Inc, River City Casino, and Ameristar Casino St. Charles Inc.
Troy Stemming deleted Ameristar Casino St. Charles Inc, Ameristar Casino Kansas City Inc, Pinnacle Entertainment, and River City Casino.
Jeff Brooks, David Jackson, Sarah Schlemeier, Kathryn Gamble, William Gamble, Cynthia Gamble, Sarah Topp and Jorgen Schlemeier deleted Ameristar Casino Kansas City Inc, Ameristar Casino St. Charles Inc., and Pinnacle Entertainment.
James Harris deleted Lathrop Gage Consulting On Behalf Of Navigant Consulting, Inc.
CLEAN Missouri - $10,000 from Sedey Harper PC.
SaferMO.Com - $7,500 from American Society of Civil Engineers.
SaferMO.Com - $100,000 from International Union of Operating Engineers Local 101.
Find the Cures - $15,000 from The Nail Law Firm.
Friends of the St. Louis Zoo - $569,000 from St. Louis Zoo Association.
Midwest Region Laborers’ Political League Education Fund - $7,699 from Laborers Supplemental Dues Fund.
Pharmacist Political Action Committee of Missouri - $12,000 from Schnuck Markets Inc.
Middle Class Missouri PAC - $25,000 from CHIPP Political Account.
Middle Class Missouri PAC - $100,000 from SEIU Missouri State Council PAC.
Missouri Democratic State Committee - $6,520 from Citizens to Elect Charlie Norr.
MO Republican Party - $15,000 from Roy Pfautch.
House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $10,000 from Curtis Trent.
House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $7,500 from UnitedHealth Group Inc.
Committee to Elect Stouffer for Prosecutor - $6,180 from Donald Stouffer.
Happy birthdays to former Sen. Rita Heard Days, and former St. Louis Alderman Antonio French.