MOScout Daily Update: The Talk.... No Lags in 2020, Auditor's Race Tied to Senate, Corlew Vulnerable and more...

Follow-Up on MOScout Forecast

MOScout readers have no shortage of opinions.  I love it.  I gobble up the feedback.  I’m going to try to be better in the coming year of actually replying.

In this case, I was surprised to hear two repetitive comments about my forecast – coming from a variety of folks across the spectrum.

First, the +3 Dems forecast in the House, and break-even in Senate are baked into the conventional wisdom.  Some folks think it may be a seat or two higher or lower in the House, and some folks think Dems might get a seat in the Senate.  But no one is pounding the table that Dems will end up with a +8 night in the House.  There is no expectation of a wave night, hurtling unsuspecting incumbents out of Jeff City.

Second, Rep. Kevin Corlew is viewed as one of the most vulnerable Republicans.  I have him in my quasi-toss-up column as a “GOP tilt.”  But I have him winning.  He’s a hard worker and a great campaigner, and I don’t like to bet against that.  However the case for his vulnerability is clear: it’s a Democratic district in a Democratic year.  Even Hillary Clinton won the district in 2016 while losing statewide by 19 points.  BUT observers also think that the House Republican Campaign Committee will move heaven and earth to defend Corlew.  That is, he won’t lack any resources in the fight. So we’ll see….

 

eMailbag on Lags for Guv 2020

No way Brad Lager runs for Governor and neither will John Lamping for that matter. They make too much money. Lager is Herzog’s heir apparent. Why leave that to risk losing a third statewide campaign? Not going to happen.

 

AG Sweepstakes

One recurring topic of chatter is who Governor Mike Parson would choose to be the next attorney general is Josh Hawley wins the US Senate seat.  A new name popped up recently…. Bill Corrigan.  He ran a strong, though unsuccessful race for St. Louis County Executive in 2010, and is respected as a lawyer. 

Most folks, though, still think that Parson would favor a two-fer: appointing Treasurer Eric Schmitt or SOS Jay Ashcroft to the spot, and then making an appointment to that position.

 

Auditor PACs

The third-party money in the auditor’s race has been timid compared to the oceans of dollars flowing into the US Senate race.  This week we finally saw the first real checking into the pro-Saundra McDowell PAC, Accountability PAC. It was a $10K check from long-time GOP donor Roy Pfautch.

Today in the large checks, two labor unions contributed a combine $45K into the pro-Nicole Galloway PAC, Keep Government Accountable PAC.

But

The relatively small sums we’re talking about here are an echo of the auditor’s campaign as a whole.  Though Galloway has raised over $1 million, there has to be some question whether that’s enough to cut through the $30+ million that’s being spent on the Missouri US Senate race.  As one politico recently told me: she can run the best campaign against he worst opponent and still lose depending how the Hawley-McCaskill race shakes out.

 

Rademan Next House Clerk

The press release:  House Speaker Designee Elijah Haahr announced today that Dana Rademan Miller will serve as the next chief clerk of the Missouri House of Representatives. Miller, who has served as the assistant chief clerk for the past six years, will begin her new duties as the chief administrator for the House immediately, but will also need a vote of support from the full membership when the 2019 regular session begins in January. Haahr said Miller’s years of exemplary service in the House and her dedication to protecting the integrity of the institution and the legislative process make her the ideal choice to take over the role as chief clerk… Haahr made the final decision to name Miller as the new chief clerk, but relied on the recommendations of a bipartisan selection committee. Because the chief clerk is a nonpartisan position that works with all members of the Missouri House, Haahr said it was important to have a clerk who has the trust and respect of both sides of the aisle…

 

Events

Fundraiser for Sen. Bob Onder at Tani Sushi, Clayton – 5:30PM

Fundraiser for County Executive Steve Stenger at Cafe Napoli, Clayton – 5:30PM

 

New Committees

Rachel Riley formed a candidate committee (Rachel Riley For 3Rd In-District) to run for Kansas City Council Person.

 

Lobbyist Registrations

Karen Burnell Ruff deleted Southwest Center for Independent Living.

 

$5K+ Contributions

SaferMO.Com - $20,000 from John Sherman

Property Casualty Insurers Association of America Political Account - $12,430 from Property Casualty Insurers Association of America.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Caesars Enterprise Services LLC.

Great Outdoors PAC - $10,000 from Joshua Mitchem.

Buchanan GOP PAC - $20,000 from Herzog Contracting Corp.

SaferMO.Com - $8,050 from Fischer Concrete Services LLC.

SaferMO.Com - $20,000 from Capital Sand Company.

SaferMO.Com - $65,000 from Capital Holding Group.

SaferMO.Com - $30,000 from Capital Quaries Company.

Chouteau PAC - $25,000 from American Democracy Alliance – Ridgely PAC.

Lathrop Gage Consulting Political Action Committee - $22,000 from Southern Glazer’s Wine and Spirits LLC.

Majority Forward - $10,000 from Friends for Gina Walsh.

Keep Government Accountable - $25,000 from UAW V Cap.

Keep Government Accountable - $20,000 from United Food and Commercial Workers Int Union AFL-CIO CLC.

Missourians for Patient Care - $71,740 from Missourians for Patient Care.

Missourians for Patient Care - $20,796 from Missourians for Patient Care.

Middle Class Missouri PAC - $10,000 from UFCW Local 655 Elect Political Fund.

New Approach PAC - $125,000 from new Approach PAC (Washington DC).

BNSF Railway Company RAILPAC Missouri - Federal Committee - $5,850 from BNSF Railway Company RAILPAC (BNSF RAILPAC).

 

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Redditt Hudson and Shantel Smith.