MOScout Daily Update: Haahr's First Decision - Richardson's Big Question - JeffCo Not Locked Down? - CLEAN Vulnerable? and more...

Haahr’s First Decision

One insider looks at Speaker-Designate Elijah Haahr’s first decision – the installation of Dana Rademan Miller as new House Clerk – and sees good omens for the type of leadership he’ll bring to the speaker’s office.  Among the hallmarks…

·         A deliberate process.

·         The absence of cronyism.

·         The inclusion of the minority party to build consensus.

·         Settling on a well-qualified candidate.

·         Smooth roll-out.

 

JeffCo Not Gone for Dems?

One Dem questions the Republican outlook – and MOScout forecast – that Jefferson County is gone red for good…

The Blue Wave isn't going to hit as hard down here. But based on my numbers, if Republicans are super confident about a sweep down here, they're wrong… I'm not saying it won't happen, but all these races are going to be close.

First, I think Mike Revis will win (any prediction to the contrary isn't based on observables I've seen).

Second, I think Karen Settlemoir-Berg is going to ride just enough of the Blue bump to get within 2-3% (or better) of Dan Shaul.

Third, my numbers on Dennis McDonald in 114 against Becky Ruth are showing a LOT of energized Democrats down there. Ruth could go down in that one.

Finally, if Paul Wieland beats Robert Butler by 10 points, I'd be pretty freaking surprised. A lot of "influencers" who bet against these guys are gonna be hoping and praying that they don't win.

 

CLEAN MO Vulnerable?

Tipster says polling “conducted October 20-23 shows support for Amendment 1 at 50%-36% with high intensity voters at 49%-38%.  African-American and Republican support for Amendment 1 are even at 43%... Given that undecided votes tend to overwhelmingly break toward 'No' on ballot issues (especially Constitutional) and that Missourians are continuing to turn from Amendment 1 as they become informed on the redistricting components, the amendment is in danger…”

But

CLEAN has the funds to make a closing argument, and there’s been very little money reported for the anti-CLEAN campaign committee, Missouri First.

And

We’ll have fresh MOScout poll this weekend on CLEAN, as well as the minimum raise proposal and the statewide races.  That’s in tomorrow’s Weekender edition.

 

eMailbag on Parson AG Calculations

Do you really think Parson will appoint someone to AG who hasn’t come out in support of Prop D? I think electeds who underestimate how important this is to him and don’t get behind it are foolish…

 

Richardson’s Big Question

Post-Dispatch ran an article recently questioning whether managed care improves health outcomes.   See the article here.  It’s one of the big questions facing Todd Richardson as he steps into his new role, and looks to make the state’s health delivery system more efficient and deliver better health outcomes.

Pull Quote: [S]ome experts say the country would be better served by asking… Are insurance companies — now receiving hundreds of billions in public money — earning their Medicaid checks? More than two-thirds of Medicaid recipients are enrolled in such programs, a type of public-private arrangement that has grown rapidly since 2014, boosted by the influx of new beneficiaries under the Affordable Care Act.

States like Missouri have eagerly tapped into the services of insurers as one way to cope with the expansion of Medicaid under the ACA, which has added 12 million people to the rolls. This fall, voters in three more states may pass ballot measures backing expansion. Outsourcing this public program to insurers has become the preferred method for running Medicaid in 38 states.

Yet the evidence is thin that these contractors improve patient care or save government money...

 

Bits

Hotline reports that “National attention has mostly escaped Missouri's 2nd District, where Republican Rep. Ann Wagner faces Democratic attorney Cort VanOstran, but the affluent suburban district has the potential to flip in a wave election. Trump won it by 10 points, down from Mitt Romney's 16-point win, and it was nearly even in the 2016 Senate race between Jason Kander and Roy Blunt. It's still an uphill fight for Democrats: Wagner has a 7-to-1 cash advantage, and Democratic outside groups and the DCCC have yet to spend…”

 

Press release: The Twenty-First Circuit Judicial Commission announced the panel of three nominees to be submitted to Governor Michael L. Parson to fill the associate circuit judge vacancy in St. Louis County created by the appointment of Judge John N. Borbonus III as circuit judge. Those nominated by the commission are: Lorne J. Baker, Kenneth M. Brison, and Diane M. Monahan… the commission reports the final votes received by each nominee were: Baker received four votes; Brison received five votes and Monahan received four votes.

 

eMailbag on Lags - Again

If Brad Lager ran it wouldn't be giving up his job. It would explicitly be with the firm's blessing… so sure he might be temporarily giving up [a job].  But he’d likely comeright back if he lost…

 

Help Wanted

Community Health Center of Central Missouri seeks Director of Health Policy and Legislative Affairs.  “This position is responsible for strategic coordination between member organizations. Significant importance will be placed on developing and maintaining relationships with strategic partners with which organizations conduct business. The selected candidate will require limited over site and help to establish both short and long term priorities for the organizations represented and cultivate collaborative partnerships with related entities. Desired candidate will have a proven track record for monitoring specific legislative priorities related to health care at all levels of government and experience and knowledge as to the formulation of legislative bills and monitoring of progress through the process…”

 

Events

Robert Butler fundraiser with Jay Nixon at Festus Pasta House – 5:30PM.

 

Lobbyist Registrations

Jerry Dowell added Alzheimer's Association Greater Missouri Chapter.

Raymond Williams added The Missouri Bar.

Lisa Christie deleted Voyce.

Analea Patterson deleted Major League Baseball, National Basketball Association, and PGA Tour Inc.

 

$5K+ Contributions

Vote For Your Library - $7,000 from James B Nutter & Company.

Citizens for a Prosperous 34th Senate District - $50,000 from Ketchmark & McCreight, P.C.

Senate Conservatives Fund - $50,000 from Ketchmark & McCreight, P.C.

SaferMO.Com - $10,000 from J.E. Dunn Construction.

SaferMO.Com - $15,000 from Lathrop Gage LLP.

SaferMO.Com - $50,000 from Regional Business Council.

Planned Parenthood Votes-St Louis and Southwest Missouri - $50,000 from SEIU Missouri State Council PAC.

Expand Missouri - $7,500 from Health Systems Inc.

SaferMO.Com - $10,000 from Trailiner Corp.

Middle Class Missouri PAC - $25,300 from Preserve Middle Class America Inc.

Citizens for Steve Stenger - $15,000 from Centene Corporation Political Action Committee.

MO Republican Party - $20,000 from American Democracy Alliance – Ridgely PAC.

New Approach Missouri - $50,000 from Seven Points LLC.

Raise Up Missouri - $10,000 from CHIPP Political Account.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc – $20,000 from Missouri Health Plan Association OAC.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc – $10,000 from Plocher for Missouri.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc – $5,001 from Friends of Phil Christofanelli.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc – $5,001 from Friends of Michael Bernskoetter.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc – $7,000 from Sun Solar LLC.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc – $6,000 from Rebecca Roeber.

 

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Jennifer Bukowsky, and Lauren Hieger.

Saturday: Stacey Jones Preis, Andria Danine Simckes, Kurt Schaefer, and Jay Houghton.

Sunday: Katie Steele Danner.