MOScout Weekender: New MOScout Poll Shows Hawley, Galloway Opening Leads

MOScout Weekly Poll: Statewides and IPs

As we enter the final stretch we’re seeing some movement in the polls… Josh Hawley appears to be opening a lead against incumbent Claire McCaskill; and Nicole Galloway is clearly pulling ahead of Saundra McDowell.  Both the CLEAN Missouri and the minimum wage proposals look like they’re on solid footing to pass.

See the full results here.

Survey conducted October 24 through October 25, 2018. 1,376 likely 2018 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2018 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-2.6%. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout.

TOPLINES

Q: The candidates in the General Election for United States Senate are the Republican Josh Hawley, the Democrat Claire McCaskill, the Libertarian Japheth Campbell, the Green Party candidate Jo Crain, and the Independent candidate Craig O’Dear. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Josh Hawley: 49%

Claire McCaskill: 45%

Japheth Campbell: 1%

Jo Crain: 1%

Craig O’Dear: 1%

Undecided: 3%

Q: The candidates in the November 2018 General Election for State Auditor are the Republican Saundra McDowell, the Democrat Nicole Galloway, the Green Party candidate Don Fitz, the Libertarian Sean O’Toole and the Constitution Party candidate Jacob Luetkemeyer. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

 Saundra McDowell: 38%

Nicole Galloway: 48%

Don Fitz: 2%

Sean O’Toole: 2%

Jacob Luetkemeyer: 3%

Undecided: 7%

Q: Amendment 1 - Shall the Missouri Constitution be amended to: change process for redrawing state legislative district during reapportionment, change limits on campaign contributions that candidates for state legislature can accept from individuals or entities; establish a limit on gifts that state legislators, and their employees, can accept from paid lobbyists; prohibit state legislators, and their employees, from serving as paid lobbyists for a period of time; prohibit political fundraising by candidates for or members of the state legislature on state property; and require legislative records and proceedings to be open to the public?

Yes: 64%

No: 23%

Undecided: 13%

Q: Proposition B - Do you want to amend Missouri law to increase the state minimum wage to $8.60 per hour with 85 cents per hour increase each year until 2023, when the state minimum wage would be $12.00 per hour; exempt government employers from the above increase; and increase the penalty for paying employees less than the minimum wage?

Yes: 58%

No: 32%

Undecided: 10%

MOScout’s Hallway Index: House Races

I circled back to my focus group of 30 building denizens to see how if their sentiment about the Senate Pro Tem race had changed.  They’d had Mike Cunningham and Bob Onder neck and neck (Cunningham 34%, Onder 31%) with Dave Schatz trailing (13%) and 20% unwilling to make a guess.  There’s been a slight shift to Cunningham, but he’s still at less than half, so there’s no clear consensus.

How will State House races shake out this cycle?    27 responses….

Mike Cunningham:  48.1%

Ed Emery:   0%

Bob Onder:  29.6%

Dave Schatz: 11.1%

No Guess:  11.1%

Sample of comments

Mike Cunningham:

Still appears to be between Cunningham and Onder but don't think either has enough solid votes on first ballot. Will all come down to what deals are cut in the final weeks.

Mike is seemingly the least controversial and pissed off the least amount of people. My bet is on him.

Bob Onder:    

I have low confidence in this selection, but my gut tells me it’s currently a toss up with him and Cunningham and Schatz is still viable.

Dave Schatz:

I am switching to Schatz. He is making a come back and working hard. It is close either way,.

Who Won the Week?

Mike Parson – As he continues to make his sales pitch for Prop D, the authenticity factor works in his favor.  Folks can tell it not about politics; he believes in the policy.

Josh Hawley – Appears to be opening a lead in the latest MOScout Poll.  Republicans have complained over the past year about a sometimes lackluster campaign from Hawley, but he might be peaking at just the right time….

Nicole Galloway – Separating her race from the US Senate race, Galloway has taken a ten-point lead.  Time to start reviewing demographer resumes?...

Elijah Haahr – Receives accolades for the first big decision of his speakership, choosing Dana Rademan Miller as the next House Clerk in a deliberate process with bi-partisan support.

See a downloadable version here.

Lobbyist Registrations

James Moody and Chris Moody deleted Aetna, and Aetna Better Health.

$5K+ Contributions

Missouri Senate Conservatives Fund - $100,000 from American Democracy Alliance.

Missouri Republican Leadership PAC- $10,000 from Ameren Missouri.

CLEAN Missouri - $10,000 from Shamberg, Johnson & Bergman.

Majority Forward - $7,300 from Telephone Contact Inc.

SaferMO.Com - $100,000 from Site Advancement Foundation (SAF).

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee – $10,000 from Friends of Sandy Crawford.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee – $25,000 from Friends of Mike Cunningham.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee – $25,000 from Friends of Michael Bernskoetter.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee – $10,000 from MHA PAC.

Chouteau PAC - $25,000 from Missouri Alliance for Freedom Grace River PAC.

The Madison PAC - $10,000 from Blue Cross and Blue Shield Kansas City.

Lathrop Gage Consulting Political Action Committee - $14,000 from Kum & Go.

Lincoln PAC - $5,150 from Missouri Senate Campaign Committee.

MO Republican Party - $10,000 from Missouri Pork PAC.

MO Republican Party - $10,000 from Missouri Realtors PAC Inc.

MO Republican Party - $20,000 from Citizens for Elaine Gannon.

Amendment2IsABigLie.Com - $39,000 from Bradley Bradshaw.

Amendment2IsABigLie.Com - $9,400 from Bradley Bradshaw.

MO Republican Party - $25,000 from Rex Sinquefield.

Missourians First - $20,000 from Missouri Senate Leadership PAC.

Friends of the St Louis Zoo - $52,000 from Saint Louis Zoo Association Government.

MACFPD CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE - $80,000 from Missouri Assn of Career Fire Prot Districts.

New Approach Missouri - $125,000 from New Approach PAC.

Citizens to Protect Tax Revenues and Jobs - $15,631 from Penn National Gaming, Inc.