Follow-Up on GOP Optimism: The Turn-Out Game
Republican optimism hinges on voter enthusiasm. The MOScout polls on the US Senate race show both Josh Hawley and Claire McCaskill having consolidated their partisan voter base. And while there’s some tug-of-war in the numbers among the non-partisan voters, election predictions are largely based on turn-out predictions at this point. Who will show up to vote?
The Talk: Pro Tem, Schmo Tem…
One lobbyist yesterday mentioned to me a conversation he was having about the senate pro tem race with another lobbyist who simply shrugged it off. The second lobbyist said that the days of the “strong pro tem” are gone. The senate pro tem – regardless who wins – isn’t going to shovel legislation down the throat of the Senate. The process in the Senate is going to be the same conveyor-belt / obstacle-course hard work where lobbyists earn their keep. Get the hearing; move it out of committee; and for goodness’s sake be ready when it gets to the floor to know who has a problem and how it can solved.
The diminished role of the pro tem isn’t the result of Jason Crowell, or Ryan Silvey, or Gary Romine, or Rob Schaaf. It’s the result of Republican majority having been in power long enough to develop factions and its own impulse for a balance of powers.
We won’t see a strong pro tem until that now-impossible-to-imagine time of the future when the Dems re-take the majority. They’ll have been out of power so long, they’ll be united as they press their agenda – just as Republicans were a few decades ago.
Silver Likes CMC
Over at 538, Missouri’s US Senate race is rated a toss-up, with Nate Silver giving Claire McCaskill a 4 in 7 chance of retaining her seat. See it here.
Our model expects 2,225,000 out of an estimated 4,564,000 eligible voters to cast a ballot — that's 48.8%
Missouri is 19.0 points more Republican than the nation overall and is the 14th-most-Republican state in the country
8 Day Reports
The very last numbers we’ll have before next week’s elections were reported last night.
Auditor’s race (Dem hold)
Republican Saundra McDowell raised $40,770; and has $24,027 on-hand.
Democrat Auditor Nicole Galloway raised $209,698; and has $546,497 on-hand.
Interesting to note that McDowell paid off her debts, squaring things up before Election Day.
Senate 22 (Tilt GOP)
Republican Sen. Paul Wieland raised $45,140; and has $122,531 on-hand.
Democrat Robert Butler raised $23,350; ad has $13,871 on-hand.
Senate 34 (Tilt GOP)
Republican Tony Luetkemeyer raised $158,660; and has $29,134 on-hand.
Democrat Martin Rucker II raised $101,223; and has $34,498 on-hand.
Strong numbers from both candidate in the final weeks – and they’re spending it as it comes in apparently…
The 12 Toss-Ups
Here are the twelve races which are essentially toss-up in my mind. I don’t do a toss-up category because you got to decide, you know? In parenthesis is the MOScout prediction. I lock in my predictions two weeks before, so no rating changes based on these numbers.
House 10 (Tilt Dem)
Republican Mike Falkner raised $18,205; and has $20,322 on-hand.
Democrat Shane Thompson raised $14,782; and has $16,813 on-hand.
House 13 (Tilt Dem)
Republican Vic Allred raised $9,315; and has $13,267 on-hand.
Democrat Mitch Weber raised $10,626; and has $11,420 on-hand.
House 14 (Tilt GOP)
Republican Rep. Kevin Corlew raised $19,100; and has $56,281 on-hand.
Democrat Matt Sain raised $20,570; and has $13,267 on-hand.
House 31 (Tilt GOP)
Republican Rep. Dan Stacy raised $3,660; and has $11,023 on-hand.
Democrat Travis Hagewood raised $4,731; and has $4,593 on-hand.
House 35 (Tilt Dem)
Republican Tom Lovell raised $12,050; and has $28,217 on-hand.
Democrat Keri Ingle raised $22,008; and has $26,221 on-hand.
House 44 (Tilt Dem)
Republican Rep. Cheri Toalson Reisch raised $7,026; and has $22,754 on-hand.
Democrat Maren Bell Jones raised $2,568; and has $2,028 on-hand.
House 65 (Tilt GOP)
Republican Rep. Tom Hannegan raised $6,432; and has $5,359 on-hand.
Democrat Bill Otto raised $16,984; and has $12,620 on-hand.
House 70 (Tilt Dem)
Republican Rep. Mark Matthiesen raised $11,050; and has $10,959 on-hand.
Democrat Paula Brown raised $22,501; and has $14,323 on-hand.
House 94 (Tilt GOP)
Republican Jim Murphy raised $7,800; and has $9,541 on-hand.
Democrat Jean Pretto raised $18,530; and has $18,530 on-hand.
House 95 (Tilt GOP)
Republican Michael O’Donnell raised $7,010; and has $6,801 on-hand.
Democrat Mike Walter raised $27,548; and has $23,664 on-hand.
House 97 (Tilt GOP)
Republican Mary Elizabeth Coleman raised $24,875; and has $25,648 on-hand.
Democrat Rep. Mike Revis raised $12,903; and has $28,918 on-hand.
House 135 (Tilt Dem)
Republican Rep. Steve Helms raised $10,350; and has $16,141 on-hand.
Democrat Rob Bailey raised $9,185; and has $16,141 on-hand.
Richard Touts Prop D
Senate Pro Tem Ron Richard writes an op/ed, hitting Missouri newspapers this morning, explaining “why conservatives should support Proposition D.”
From the manifesto…
That new money will allow Missouri to move to the head of the line to return federal tax money we have already paid to Washington, to fix our roads and bridges back home. If we don’t provide the matching money, other states will do so and receive our money. I’m for Missourians’ money coming back to fix Missouri roads and bridges…
Prop D is a user tax on those who buy fuel to use the roads, not a general sales tax increase. True conservatives prefer targeted user taxes to broad tax hikes. In the case of Prop D, for example, senior citizens who don’t drive won’t pay at the pump…
[U]nlike general revenues, nobody can mess with this money. It goes where it is promised to go: roads, streets, bridges and enforcement of safe road laws….
Missouri hasn’t raised our state motor fuels user tax since 1996. Inflation has eaten away at that basic 17 cents tax, which only has 7 cents of purchasing power today. While steel, concrete and asphalt have doubled and tripled in cost over the last 22 years, the state motor fuels user tax has lost 60 percent of its value. Any true fiscal conservative knows you cannot stay in business for long with that scenario...
There is no more basic function of government than taking care of our roads, streets and bridges…
My conservative friends know the old country saying: “You can’t eat your seed corn.” That means it’s penny-wise and pound-foolish not to protect and take care of your basics, and there is no better example of the basics than roads and bridges…
The Missouri Ethics Commission dismissed a complaint against US Term Limits, James Thomas III, and Missouri Senate Conservatives Fund. See it here. The complaint had alleged that contributions were earmarked for a specific race, but “USTL provided evidence that it has not received funds from any donor bearing instruction…”
MEC also dismissed a complaint against Erica Hoffman, who’s running in House 96. See it here. It appears there was nothing to the complaint.
And Bradley Harmon agreed to a consent order with MEC. See it here. Harmon failed to file a disclosure report, and failed to file an Independent Expenditure report (for Survey St. Louis). This is not Harmon’s first trouble with MEC. He was found guilty of violations in 2015 and 2013.
eMailbag on GOP Optimism
I wonder if those optimistic GOP folks are the same ones who said that Corlew was closing in on Arthur in the closing days of that 20-point nail biter…
Kimberly Collins formed a candidate committee (Families For Kimberly-Ann Collins) to run for House 77 as a Democrat in 2020. Her treasurer is Jesse Todd.
Arnie C Dienoff formed an exemption committee to run for Auditor as a write-in candidate.
Winston Calvert added Gateway Government Relations LLC On Behalf Of Securus Technologies, Inc.
Jeff Brooks, Bill Gamble, Cynthia Gamble, Kathryn Gamble, David Jackson, Jorgen Schlemeier, Sarah Schlemeier, and Sarah Topp added Penn National Gaming.
Citizens For Porter - $30,000 from Craig Porter Development LLC.
SaferMO.Com - $10,000 from Magruder LLC.
Keep Government Accountable - $9,000 from United Food and Commercial Wortkers Int Union AFL-CIO.
A Better Missouri Political Action Committee - $6,500 from Anheuser-Busch Cos.
CLEAN Missouri - $9,988 from Missouri Rural Action PMB.
CLEAN Missouri - $6,325 from Sierra Club.
Teamsters 245 PAF - $10,000 from DRIVE Committee (Washington DC).
MO DRIVE Fund - $65,000 from DRIVE Committee (Washington DC).St Louis County Democratic Central Committee - $5,837 from Show-Me Eastern MO Democrats LLC.
Missouri Democratic State Committee - $6,250 from Billings for Senate.
AGC of MO PAC - $10,000 from D&S Fencing.
MACGPD Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Simmons Hanly Conroy.
Citizens for Steve Stenger - $10,000 from RKO Capital LLC.
SEIU HCII Missouri PAC- $50,000 from SEIU HCII.
SaferMO.Com- $17,500 from Delta Asphalt Inc.
SaferMO.Com - $10,000 from Robert Low.
Nicole Galloway For Missouri - $20,000 from Nicole Galloway.
Happy birthdays to Rep. Bruce DeGroot, former Rep. Mark Parkinson, Kyna Iman, Jessica Podhola, and Vince Schoemehl.
To Aubrey and Caleb Rowden on the birth of Adele Lisette Rowden.