MOScout Daily Update: 5 Big Takeaways from $2M in IEs - How CLEAN Will Change JCity - Turnout Watch and more...

Gotta Wonder…

If bringing President Donald Trump to Missouri twice in one week is the best GOTV Democrats could hope for….

Largest IEs

Here are the largest independent expenditures (so far) in the state legislatives races.  I’ve listed those over $25K.

$187,545 - House Republican Campaign Committee Inc opposing Adrian Plank (House 47).

$179,648 - House Republican Campaign Committee Inc opposing Maren Bell Jones (House 44).

$142,984 - Missouri Senate Campaign Committee opposing Martin Rucker II (Senate 34).

$101,596 - Middle Class Missouri PAC opposing Lincoln Hough (Senate 30).

$101,500 - Majority Forward supporting Martin Rucker II (Senate 34).

$101,400 - Lincoln PAC supporting Lincoln Hough (Senate 30).

$91,308 - Missouri Club for Growth Political Action Committee supporting Tony Luetkemeyer (Senate 34).

$82,249 - Missouri Senate Conservatives Fund opposing Martin Rucker II (Senate 34).

$75,000 - House Republican Campaign Committee opposing Matt Sain (House 14).

$74,030 - Missouri Senate Campaign Committee opposing Martin Rucker II (Senate 34).

$73,173 - House Republican Campaign Committee Inc supporting Steve Helms (House 135).

$73,173 - House Republican Campaign Committee Inc opposing Rob Bailey (House 135).

$70,000 - Keep Government Accountable opposing Saundra McDowell (Auditor)

$61,504 - Citizens for a Prosperous 34th Senate District supporting Tony Luetkemeyer (Senate 34).

$60,712 - Middle Class Missouri PAC opposing Tony Luetkemeyer (Senate 34).

$54,530 - House Republican Campaign Committee Inc opposing Shane Thompson (House 10).

$45,110 - Majority Forward supporting Hillary Shields (Senate 8).

$44,826 - Citizens for a Prosperous 34th Senate District supporting Tony Luetkemeyer (Senate 34).

$40,216 - Safer Families for Missouri opposing Tony Luetkemeyer (Senate 34).

$40,000 - Keep Government Accountable opposing Saundra McDowell (Auditor).

$36,800 - Missouri Senate Campaign Committee supporting Paul Wieland.

$36,800 - Missouri Senate Campaign Committee opposing Robert Butler.

$32,920 - Majority Forward supporting Robert Butler.

$31,025 - Missouri Club for Growth Political Action Committee supporting Tony Luetkemeyer (Senate 34).

$30,008 - Missouri Senate Campaign Committee opposing Martin Rucker II (Senate 34).

$28,942 - Missouri Senate Conservatives Fund supporting Ron Schieber (Commissioner Platte County)

$27,905 - House Republican Campaign Committee Inc opposing Mich Thompson (House 10).

$27,373 - House Republican Campaign Committee Inc opposing Travis Hagewood (House 31).

$26,538 - House Republican Campaign Committee Inc opposing Bill Otto (House 65).

$25,708 - Missouri Senate Campaign Committee opposing Robert Butler (Senate 22)

5 Big Takeaways

First, The oodles of money show the importance of IEs to campaigns. These are just the $25K+ and they represent $2 million in expenditures.

Second, Senate 34 is clearly a hot spot of action.  This list shows $555K for Luetkemeyer / opposing Rucker, and $201K supporting Rucker / opposing Luetkemeyer.

Third, the two biggest IEs are in House races in Columbia where media price are high and Republicans are defending incumbents.

Fourth, Lincoln Hough is apparently unruffled. He’s the target of one of the largest Middle Class PAC hits ($101K). Lincoln PAC responded with a sizable expenditure of its own in his support, but Hough himself is still sitting on cash ($150K) as of the 8-Day Report.

Fifth, and finally: Amendment 2 didn’t get rid of big money in elections, it just created middle-men.

Living in a CLEAN Jeff City

While a lot of politicos have focused on the redistricting aspect of the CLEAN Missouri proposal there are several smaller ways it will change the capitol, assuming it passes…

·         Gift bans will be limited to $5.  Enough for a cup of coffee (at most places).  That means no more lobbyist-paid dinners for the Senate working late, no more free lunches during House committee hearings.  And it obviously does away with being wined and dined.  (However you may be able to score one Bud Light still under the limit).

·         The wait period for legislators to register as lobbyists gets upped from the current 6 months to 2 years.  And there’s no exemption – as there is currently – for folks staying in public service and going to work for an executive branch agency (for example, like Speaker Todd Richardson is doing).  One lobbyist tells me he expects a slew of resignations before the new year from legislators who don’t want to be frozen out of career opportunities by the new provisions.

·         Sunshine laws will now be applicable to the legislature as they are to the executive branch.  Legislators will quickly become sunshine law experts – and learn the many exemptions.

But

Don’t let all this jive distract from the real purpose behind CLEAN – to change the redistricting process into something more hospitable for Democrats.  That will have the biggest impact on Jefferson City.  It’ll be a bloodbath for incumbents after the new lines are drawn for the 2022 elections.

Watch the Turnout

Post-Dispatch reports that “Eric Fey, Democratic director of elections in St. Louis County, said… the county could see 60 percent of registered voters showing up at the polls. Steve Capizzi, Democratic director for the St. Louis Election Board, said he also expects large numbers, well above the 37 percent or so who voted in the August primary. Fey said one indicator of a higher turnout is absentee voting, with 21,555 ballots cast in St. Louis County as of Monday evening. More than 5,100 St. Louis city voters have cast absentee ballots….”

And

Secretary of State’s office usually makes an estimate of turnout.  Nothing so far…

Don’t Call Me Daughter

Here’s a beauty of a lede from KCStar about the racist from in House 15… “Emily West has a message for voters in Missouri House District 15. Don’t vote for her dad…”  See it here.

Her dad is Steve West, 64, the Republican candidate for the Missouri General Assembly who made headlines after winning the GOP primary in August when word spread about his radio show and website through which he regularly espoused an array of bigotry including homophobia, anti-Semitism, Islamophobia and outright racism. “A lot of his views are just very out there,” Emily West said. “He’s made multiple comments that are racist and homophobic and how he doesn’t like the Jews.” On Tuesday, her brother contacted The Star to say that he, too, was concerned about their father’s candidacy. “My dad’s a fanatic. He must be stopped,” said Andy West, the middle of Steve West’s three children. “His ideology is pure hatred. It’s totally insane. If he gets elected, it would legitimize him. Then he would become a state official, and he’s saying that Jews shouldn’t even have civil rights.”

MEC on Atty Fees

The Missouri Ethics Commission issues an opinion that a candidate committee can use funds to pay legal fees concerning a federal investigation to campaign violations.  See it here.

But the real question now is: who was asking the question?

Trick or Treating

Press release: Governor Mike Parson and First Lady Teresa Parson cordially invite children and their families to stop by the Governor’s Mansion this Halloween for trick-or-treating. It will start on Wednesday, October 31, from 5:30 p.m.-7:00 p.m. Guests will be able to enter through the front gate on Madison Street, where they will be able to line up to meet the Governor and First Lady at the steps, receive a treat or a trinket, and get their photo taken with the First Couple…

Finally

A really nice obituary for Scott Marrs in the Springfield News-Leader.  See it here.

Help Wanted

Environment America seeks State Director. “Environment America is a policy and action group with more than two million members and supporters spread across all 50 states… The State Director is responsible for developing our strategy, approach and local message to win our campaigns in a specific state. The State Director will also meet with local decision-makers and opinion leaders and represent our organization to allies and the media. State Directors help to build and foster our membership, grassroots and online base of support. Finally, the State Director will help recruit staff and volunteers to join us, fundraise for our programs, and maintain good systems for tracking and building on our work…”  See the ad here.

New Committees

Chris Kelly formed a candidate committee (Friends Of Chris Kelly) to run for Mayor of Columbia.

Stopp Committee (Stop Taxing Our Personal Property) was formed.  It’s a campaign committee for a future 2020 ballot initiative.  The treasurer is Rik Combs.  The deputy treasurer is David Roland.

$5K+ Contributions

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $25,000 from Romine for Senate.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Ameren Missouri.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Missouri Health Plan Association PAC.

SaferMO.Com - $10,000 from AGC of MO PAC.

SaferMO.Com - $15,000 from Spire Missouri Inc.

SaferMO.Com - $25,000 from International Union of Operating Engineers Local 513.

SaferMO.Com - $25,000 from Burns & McDonnell.

SaferMO.Com - $25,000 from Jacobs Engineering.

Middle Class Missouri PAC - $65,000 from Missouri Drive Fund.

Middle Class Missouri PAC - $10,000 from Teamsters 245 PAF.

Citizens for a Prosperous 34th Senate District - $10,000 from CL PAC.

New Approach Missouri - $25,000 from Ethelmae Humphreys.

House Victory Committee - $10,000 from Schupp for Senate.

Jacobs for Judge - $25,000 from Brouck Jacobs.

Uniting Missouri PAC - $9,500 from Southwestern Bell Telephone LP DBA AT&T Missouri.

Uniting Missouri PAC - $5,200 from Farmer Holding Company.

Uniting Missouri PAC - $10,000 from JH Berra Construction Co Inc.

Uniting Missouri PAC - $10,000 from McBride & Son  Management LLC.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $50,000 from Missourians for Freedom to Work.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $25,000 from Friends of Nick Schroer.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $5,001 from Committee to Elect Houx.

Birthdays

Happy birthday to Paul Quinn.