MOScout Daily Update: Election Day!

Polls are open.  They close at 7PM.  Secretary of State is estimating 54.73 percent turnout.  I’ll take the over on that line.  As Axios writes this morning… “It took Donald J. Trump to do what do-gooders, activists, politicians and TV ads failed to do: get the American public interested in midterm elections and the consequences of voting. The dirty, sad truth of congressional elections is Democrats typically suck at voting in midterms. Mostly old, mostly white voters are usually the only ones bothering to show up. Hence, GOP dominance, especially in House races these past few decades.  No more: Everywhere you look you see signs of record-setting voting on both sides. It’s the only bipartisan show on town!..”

Today is a quiet day for a lot of politicos, foot-tapping, waiting for the evening to come with results…

Cleaning Out the In-Box

·         Spot former Speaker Tim Jones behind President Donald Trump at the Cape Girardeau rally last night.  See him here.  Though former Sen. Jeff Smith apparently caught him mid-yawn.  See it here.

·         I heard a couple complaints about incredibly late absentee ballots.  Like this one.  Yikers!

·         Kurt Erickson spots Saundra McDowell’s campaign car in her driveway on the day before Election Day when most candidates are furiously trying to stuff in one more event.  See it here.

·         Lobbyist Brian Grace explains why he’s voting for medical marijuana (he’s Yes on 2; No on 3) on Twitter see it here. “In 2007 I had testicular cancer. My prognosis was good, but the chemo-induced nausea was kicking my ass. I tried every anti-nausea medication to no avail.One day, while I was laying in a hospital bed, weary from non-stop vomiting, my oncologist came in to speak with my wife. He said that, while he couldn’t legally recommend this, I should try marijuana to help alleviate the nausea and regain my appetite…”

And

This note from a MOScouter: “I just realized you didn’t’ do an election prediction pool. Sad.”

Let’s do a quickie.  Send me your predictions (winners) for the following seven races. Get them in by noon, I’ll announce a winner tomorrow.

Senate 34: Tony Luetkemeyer v Martin Rucker

House 10: Bill Falkner v Shane Thompson

House 14: Kevin Corlew v Matt Sain

House 65: Tom Hannegan v Bill Otto

House 70: Mark Matthiesen v Paula Brown

House 97: Mary Elizabeth Coleman v Mike Revis

House 135: Steve Helms v Rob Bailey

Tie-breaker: % in favor of Bingo constitutional amendment

What To Watch For Tonight

·         Were Democrats able to use the President Donald Trump to energize their base and bring in new voters from the suburbs?  That’ll impact the turnout and outcome of the US Senate race, but also a shift in the state legislative seats.  The conventional wisdom now is that Republicans will pick up the last remaining exurban seats this cycle, but their hold on the suburbs will start to fray.  We’ll see…

·         If voters distinguish (as the MOScout poll suggests) between Amendment 2 medical marijuana and Amendment 3 medical marijuana, some think ballot position may have a lot to do with it.  The theory is that folks in favor of MMJ will vote yes when they first encounter it, then read a little closer with the second proposal and reject the higher tax.  If that happens give the props to Amendment 2 campaigners who gamed out that scenario months ago and hurried to turn in their signatures before the competing IP.

·         The biggest earthquake could be the passage of CLEAN Missouri which would overhaul the redistricting process, BUT there’ll be litigation from opponents if it passes, AND – as I wrote last week – Republicans are already plotting a possible counter proposal to substitute it.

Follow-Up on Soda Tax

I wrote yesterday about some states looking at soda tax.  I noted that neither Coca-Cola or PepsiCo has a lobbyist here in Missouri.  But one reader pointed out that there is an active industry organization, Missouri Beverage Association, in the state.  It’s represented by Gamble and Schlemeier.

Wanna-Be Judges

Press release: The Seventh Circuit Judicial Commission announces the following demographic information relating to applicants for the Division 4 circuit judge vacancy in Clay County created by the impending retirement of Judge Larry D. Harman effective December 16, 2018: There are eight applicants for the vacancy… Louis Angles, Angela M. Atkinson, Sophia R. Bond, David P. Chamberlain, Timothy J. Flook, Karen L. Krauser, Shannon J. Ryser, and  Michael S. Shipley…

New Large IEs

$60,000 – Missouri Senate Campaign Committee supporting Tony Luetkemeyer (Senate 34).

$11,141 – Missouri Senate Campaign Committee supporting Paul Wieland (Senate 22).

Lobbyists Registrations

Andrew Blunt and Jay Reichard added All States Dealer Licensing Inc., and US Dealer Licensing.

Richard Kadansky added Marathon Petroleum Corporation (subsidiaries & Affiliates).

Jessica Hembree deleted Health Care Foundation of Greater Kansas City.

Stephane Robinson deleted Union Electric DBA Ameren Mo.

Elizabeth Fuchs deleted PROMO.

Timothy Jannetta deleted Lepercq De Neuflize.

Daniel Bogle deleted Missouri Department Of Health And Senior Services.

Morry Cole deleted The Missouri Bar.

New Committees

Van Kelly formed a candidate committee (Van Kelly For Missouri) to run for statewide office (2020) as a Republican.

Heather Silverman formed a candidate committee (elect Heather Silverman) to run for statewide office (2020) as a Democrat.

Freedom's Promise PAC was formed. Its treasurer is Mark Milton.

$5K+ Contributions

Civic Progress Action Committee - $25,000 from Civic Progress Inc.

SaferMO.Com - $5,100 from Misosuir Soybean Association.

SaferMO.Com - $10,000 from Citizens to Elect Mike Kehoe.

SaferMO.Com - $10,000 from Missouri Republican Leadership PAC.

SaferMO.Com - $5,100 from Missouri Corn Growers Assn.

SaferMO.Com - $25,728 from Emery Sapp & Sons Inc.

Paul Berry III for St. Louis County - $70,000 from Fred N Sauer.

House Victory Committee - $10,000 from CHIPP Political Account.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Hegeman for Senate.

Van Kelly for Missouri - $7,339 from Van Kelly.

Majority Forward - $10,000 from Schupp for Senate.

Raise Up Missouri - $15,423 from Advocates of Planned Parenthood of St. Louis Region and Southwest Missouri.

SaferMO.Com - $20,000 from Erik Kolberg.

Expand Missouri - $6,000 from MO Independent Bankers Association.

New Approach Missouri - $5,001 from Missouri Essentials LLC.

Uniting Missouri PAC - $10,000 from Southern Glazers Wine & Spirits LLC.

Uniting Missouri PAC - $7,500 from RAI Services Company.

Uniting Missouri PAC - $15,000 from Association of Missouri Electric Cooperatives.

Citizens for Steve Stenger - $15,000 from MACFPD.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Reps. Keith Frederick and Joe Runions.

Have fun everyone…..