MOScout Daily Update: The Day Before... Why Galloway Leads - Bond on Tax "Adjustment" - GovWatch's PAC Spreadsheet - Hawley "Doesn't Want it"? - Randles for Treas? and more...
Follow-Up on MOScout Weekly Poll
A few thoughts on last weekend’s MOScout Poll. I’m not sure that much changed in the last week with the US Senate race. Just as last week, I view this race as a matter of who turns out. Both candidates have consolidated their base.
The auditor’s race on the other hand showed a substantial lead for Nicole Galloway, largely because she has huge lead with non-partisan voters: 49%-30%. And because Saundra McDowell has not completely won her Republican base. 18% of Republicans polled said they were voting for Galloway.
Early Finger-Pointing?
Out in the Twitterverse, there’s the start of the blame game. This happens in all big elections, the pre-spin, and isn’t an indicator of whether someone will actually win or lose in the end. It’s nervous energy from the pundit and advocate classes.
Did Hawley not “want it” enough?
Jonathan Allen tweets: “All I’ve heard from Republican sources in Missouri this entire cycle, including as recently as last night, is that Hawley is a no-show at major local GOP events. The guy has not campaigned on the ground like someone fighting for a Senate seat, and Republicans in state are nervous”
This is not a new complaint. From a Republican a few weeks ago… “[Hawley] owed it to Republicans to tell them he was going to be lackluster and on Fox News more than he’s been in most counties.”
Hawley’s Closing Argument
Hawley’s closing argument is this: Claire = Hillary. See it here.
The Talk: Schmitt for AG, Then Who for Treas?
Why wait for Wednesday morning when you can start gaming out a Hawley win today. If Hawley wins, and Treasurer Eric Schmitt gets the nod from Governor Mike Parson to take the AG spot (two big Ifs), who gets treasurer?
I heard one left field suggestion over the weekend… Bev Randles. You may remember Randles as the Rex Sinquefield-backed candidate who lost to Parson in the 2016 LG race.
Why it would work: Parson is famously not one to hold a grudge; Randles, a rarity among Republican politicos, an African American woman, could enhance the Party’s image.
Why it doesn’t work: With Parson being a governor not elected to governor; Kehoe being a lieutenant governor not elected to lieutenant governor, Schmitt theoretically being an AG not elected to AG, don’t you at least want someone elected to something to be state treasurer?
And
One Republican tells me that supporters of Mike Kehoe are nervous about Schmitt for AG because it’s a more prominent spot from which to launch a gubernatorial big in 2024 – against LG Kehoe. Yeah we’re like 17 moves down the chess board at that point…
Bond’s Closing Argument on Prop D: Adjustment
There are some nice nuances to Kit Bond’s pitch for Prop D. Listen to it here. First, he identifies himself as former governor, instead of former Senator. One assumes that governors are more popular than senators – especially right now in the midst of the McCaskill-Hawley fight.
Second, he doesn’t talk about a tax increase. Nope, he says it’s been 22 years since we “adjusted” the gas tax for inflation.
Beautiful.
GovWatch Looks at PAC Giving
GovWatch has compiled a spreadsheet of which PACs have given to which candidates in this general election cycle. You can find it here.
Soda Tax?
NYTimes reports on state’s eying a “soda tax”.” See it here.
Standing in a supermarket produce aisle, her face shadowed with dread, the middle-aged woman speaks directly to the camera and makes a plea for common decency. “We should not be taxed on what we eat,” she says in a commercial that is being broadcast across Washington State. “We need to eat to survive, and if we have to cut back on what we eat, that’s not going to be good — especially for the elderly.”
In the run-up to Election Day, residents of Washington and Oregon have been bombarded with similar messages from groups with names like Yes! To Affordable Groceries. The organizations have spent more than $25 million on commercials that feature plain-spoken farmers and penny-pinching moms urging support of ballot measures that would prohibit municipalities from taxing food sales.
But what most voters don’t know is that Coca-Cola, PepsiCo and other American beverage companies are largely financing the initiatives — not to block taxes on staples like milk and vegetables but to choke off a growing movement to tax sugary drinks.
At a time of soaring childhood obesity, and with more than one in three adults overweight, health advocates say that soda taxes are an effective way to dampen consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages. Nearly 40 countries now have them, along with seven cities in the United States, including Philadelphia, San Francisco and Boulder, Colo.
Coca-Cola and PepsiCo have no registered lobbyists in Missouri.
Help Wanted
Service Employees International Union, Local 1 seeks External Union Organizer. “SEIU Local 1 has been on the cutting edge of building the power of low-wage workers in service industries and fighting for economic, racial, immigrant and environmental justice. We are now hiring Organizers in St. Louis, MO to work on exciting campaigns to organize higher education faculty…” See it here.
The United Way of Greater St. Louis, Inc. seeks President and Chief Executive Officer. “The President and Chief Executive Officer of the United Way is responsible for the successful implementation and execution of Board directives. The President and CEO ensures the organization’s long-term relevance to the communities it serves, provides inspirational action-oriented leadership to continually enhance the organization’s capacity to carry out its mission and ensures the accountability of the organization to its diverse constituents…” See it here.
New Large IEs
$9,999 – House Republican Campaign Committee Inc opposing Bill Otto (House 65).
Lobbyists Registrations
Elizabeth Lauber added National Parents Organization Of Missouri.
New Committees
American Dream PAC was formed. Its treasurer is Ron Richard. Its deputy treasurer is John Sheehan.
Paul Ward formed a candidate committee (Friends For Paul Ward) to run for St. Louis County Council as a Democrat.
$5K+ Contributions
SaferMO.Com - $5,100 from MO Corn Growers Association.
SaferMO.Com - $25,728 from Emery Saff & Sons Inc.
CLEAN Missouri - $25,588 from Missouri Organizing and Voter Engagement Action.
CLEAN Missouri - $36,669 from Missouri Organizing and Voter Engagement Collaborative.
CLEAN Missouri - $83,759 from MOVE Ballot Fund.
Raise Up Missouri - $25,588 from Missouri Organizing and Voter Engagement Action.
Raise Up Missouri - $36,669 from Missouri Organizing and Voter Engagement Collaborative.
Raise Up Missouri - $83,759 from MOVE Ballot Fund.
Find the Cures - $14,000 from Bradley Bradshaw.
House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $7,000 from Citizens for Ross.
House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $10,000 from Verizon.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Rep. Cora Faith Walker, Aaron Jeffries, Brad Ketcher, and Angie Postal.