MOScout Weekender: Final Poll Shows Tied US Senate Race, Galloway Widening Lead, Prop D Surging - Wasson Resigns and more...
MOScout Weekly Poll: US Senate Tied Again, Galloway Builds Lead, Prop D Surges
Q: The candidates in the General Election for United States Senate are the Republican Josh Hawley, the Democrat Claire McCaskill, the Libertarian Japheth Campbell, the Green Party candidate Jo Crain, and the Independent candidate Craig O’Dear. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Josh Hawley: 47%
Claire McCaskill: 47%
Japheth Campbell: 1%
Jo Crain: 1%
Craig O’Dear: 1%
Undecided: 3%
Q: The candidates in the November 2018 General Election for State Auditor are the Republican Saundra McDowell, the Democrat Nicole Galloway, the Green Party candidate Don Fitz, the Libertarian Sean O’Toole and the Constitution Party candidate Jacob Luetkemeyer. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Saundra McDowell: 38%
Nicole Galloway: 49%
Don Fitz: 2%
Sean O’Toole: 1%
Jacob Luetkemeyer: 3%
Undecided: 7%
Q: Proposition D - Shall Missouri law be amended to fund Missouri state law enforcement by increasing the motor fuel tax by two- and one-half cent per gallon annually for four years beginning July 1, 2019, exempt Special Olympic, Paralympic and Olympic prizes from state taxes, and to establish the Emergency State Freight Bottleneck Fund?
Yes: 55%
No: 40%
Undecided: 5%
Q: What is your opinion of Donald Trump?
Favorable: 49%
Unfavorable: 46%
No opinion: 5%
Wasson Resigns
I am told that Jay Wasson resigned as state senator on Thursday. He was appointed Friday to the Missouri Tourism Commission. Wasson was term-limited and would have left office in January.
And
Other appointments by Governor Parson: Sherman “Bill” Birkes, and Cheryl D.S. Walker were appointed to the Missouri Ethics Commission; John Mallott, Dr. Eric Sandvol, and Dr. Brent Rosenblad were reappointed to the Seismic Safety Commission; Kayla Sue Schoonover and Lee Tieman were appointed to the Missouri Western State University Board of Governors; Kurt Witzel was appointed to the Missouri Tourism Commission.
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Tuesday Surprises?
I asked my hallway group to give me their long-shots, upsets, or what they thought would be the big news on Tuesday Night.
Here’s a sample of their responses…
“Luetkemeyer loses despite the most aggressive fundraising this side of Greitens.”
“Faulkner wins District 10 (Conway) to make for three Republican flips.”
“Dems gain 6-8 house seats; Cierpiot loses (unfortunately).”
“Biggest takeaway is that that there are no surprises anymore, or shouldn’t be. After 2016, does anyone really know what the electorate is going to do? If you think you do, then you’re probably in for some surprises.”
“Saundra McDowell!!!!!!!!!!!!”
“I’m a Dem. There will be no blue wave. There will be some splashes and a few ripples, but landlocked Missouri will be spared. Lots of reasons why, but the most recent reason is Kavanaugh. Dems have vilified white men to the point that it’s turning many ‘I’ women against them. Claire is right: lunatic Dems run this party and are dragging it down with them.”
“That the blue wave missed Missouri. That Democrats lost McCaskill, failed to gain seats in the Senate, and only gained 3 seats in the House. Meanwhile, nationally, Democrats took control of the US House.”
“Lincoln Hough's race closer than expected highlighting the fact that the Dems left too much on the field in House races by failing to coalesce.”
“Something going wrong for Republicans in Greene County, but a something going right for them in Buchanan.”
“Rucker upset in S34”
“The progressive Dems might have a reality check.”
“Sara Walsh potentially losing in Columbia”
Who Won the Week?
Prop D – Treasurer Eric Schmitt, previously mum on the tax increase, jumps in with his support; radio ads from Sly James; robo-calls from Kit Bond; organized labor working the ground; it’s a full court-press. Plus MOScout poll shows the measure passing…
Eric Schmitt – With his support of Prop D, insiders think Schmitt becomes the frontrunner for the AG appointment if Hawley wins on Tuesday.
Republican legislative candidates – The Missouri Senate Campaign Committee and the House Republican Campaign Committee have been dropping four, five, and six-figure independent expenditures during the final week of the campaign. These GOP candidates won’t lose because of a lack of resources.
The humble voter – all about turnout on Tuesday night. Each side is trying to mobilize their base. And voters across Missouri appear to be energized.
See a downloadable version here.
Help Wanted
Ameren Seeks Local Government Representative. “The Local Government Representative is responsible for maintaining and cultivating favorable legislative relations through personal contact with local elected officials and their staff members and facilitating day to day activities related to St. Louis City, and County local government relations functions, and other local municipal governments as needed…” See it here.
St. Louis Partnership seeks Liaison Services with State-Level Government Officials. “Establish and maintain a working relationship with state-level government agencies, officials and elected representatives and their staffs on behalf of the Partnership; Represent the Partnership in negotiations with state-level agencies, officials and elected representatives and their staffs regarding proposed legislation, desired funding, and other projects as outlined by the CEO of the Partnership or his or her designee; Arrange with the Partnership for testimony at committee hearings, or submission of written comments, to promote the legislative package or funding goals of the Partnership, or to respond to proposed legislation directly impacting such package or goals, and to assist in the preparation of same…” See the RFP here.
New Large IEs
$108,080 – House Republican Campaign Committee opposing Rob Bailey (House 135).
$70,000 – Missouri Senate Campaign Committee opposing Martin Rucker (Senate 34)
$12,898 – House Republican Campaign Committee supporting Sarah Mills (House 18).
Lobbyist Registrations
Jon Dalton added Objectiv Growth LLC.
$5K+ Contributions
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $50,000 from Onder for Missouri.
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $15,000 from Friends of Sandy Crawford.
SaferMO.Com - $25,000 from Rudolph Farber.
SaferMO.Com - $10,000 from The Monarch Cement Company.
SaferMO.Com - $25,000 from MO Truck PAC
SaferMO.Com - $8,000 from Opies Transport Inc.
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Verizon.
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from HCA Missouri Good Government Fund.
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $7,000 from Caremark Rx Inc.
CWA-COPE Political Contributions Federal Committee - $15,250 from Communications Workers of America-COPE PCC.
MO Republican Party - $20,000 from MO Alliance for Freedom Grace River PAC.
Raise Up Missouri - $30,000 from Missouri jobs with Justice Voter Action.
MO Republican Party - $25,000 from Missouri Senate Campaign Committee.
House Victory Committee - $10,000 from Gina Mitten for State Representative.
House Victory Committee - $10,000 from Peter Merideth for MO Progress.
Freedom Incorporated - $60,000 from Election Day Enterprises LLC.