Monday, July 17, 2017

US Senate Talk: Hawley In

I feel like I’m getting whipsawed between the various rumors, but I have two sources with ties to DC telling me that Josh Hawley will be running for US Senate.

We’ll see if confirmation of this comes soon, but assuming it’s true, this will once again rearrange the deck of potential Republican candidates.

It might not deter Rep. Paul Curtman from running, but it puts a serious dent in chances for success because it reduces the odds of a “free-for-all” primary.

Likewise with Hawley in, the troupe of less known candidates will still put their name on the ballot.

However it remains to be seen if Hawley being in would make Treasurer Eric Schmitt back off. Or make Governor Eric Greitens finally rule out a run instead of keeping the door open.  And of course who knows how it would impact Ed Martin….

New MEC Opinion

The Missouri Ethics Commission published another opinion late last week continuing to build out the legal framework to Amendment 2 campaign contributions.  See it here.

The summary: A PAC that is funded with 100% of its monetary contributions by a corporation’s general treasury funds cannot be “deemed” to be a “connected organization.” However, the PAC can be connected if the corporation is expending funds to establish, administer and maintain the committee, or to solicit officers, directors, employees or security holders of such organization.

PAC-Land

In the large contributions (below) Stan Herzog’s company is contributing $100K and $50K to two relatively new PACs, both formed May 17.

Ridgely PAC (see paperwork here) and Grace River PAC (see paperwork here) both have an address of Graves Law Firm where Todd Graves, chair of the Missouri Republican Party, is a principal.  The treasurer of both committees is Kristen Blanchard Ansley.  She’s the former executive director of the state Republican Party.

And

Months ago, Jason Hancock reported that the governor’s political non-profit is housed in a building owned by Herzog.  See it here.

July Quarters

Today is the deadline day for July Quarterly reports.  It’s early in the cycle, but still the results may give some hints to the future of 2018 races.

Here are some early filings of interest…

In Senate 24, Sen. Jill Schupp now has over $400K on-hand.  Meanwhile former Rep. Sue Allen – who has been mentioned as a possible Republican candidate – didn’t fundraise this quarter.  She has only $25K on-hand.  That conforms with one source saying they don’t expect her to run for senate.  If Allen bows out, that opens up other possible candidates like Suzie Spence, Jack Spooner or Colleen Wasinger.  We’ll see….

Last week’s MOScout poll surveyed the Senate 8 Republican primary.  Floor Leader Mike Cierpiot wasn’t leading in that poll, but he appears to have a very strong start on fundraising.  His campaign committee now has about $160K on-hand.  Meanwhile Rep. Gary Cross, who led the poll, only has $25K on-hand.

Up in Senate 18 where Cindy O’Laughlin is expected to jump in this week, Rep. Lindell Shumake only has $3,392 on-hand, and Rep. Nate Walker only has $1,120 on-hand. With a big check O’Laughlin could quickly be catapulted into the front-runner position.

Former St. Louis Alderman Antonio French was recently the subject of an article concerning his former campaign manager not getting paid.  His July filing shows as much with $45 on-hand and debt of nearly $67K.

Mark Mantovani who has been making noise about primarying Steve Stenger for St. Louis County Executive showed $387K on-hand.  But that includes Mantovani’s own $250K contribution and his an additional $100K from his brother-in-law.  He’ll need to show some real donors next quarter for folks to take his challenge seriously.

STL Citizens for Safety – the campaign vehicle to pass Prop P in St. Louis County – is still raising money (including $100K from David Stewart) to pay off campaign debts.  After paying down another $150K in debt this quarter, they still have $80K left in debt.

And the COH of those new PACS….. Holly PAC: $27,147; Lincoln PAC $50,201; and Young Guns Missouri PAC: $18,893

Bits

Governor Eric Greitens finished his review of the legislature’s bills.  See the press release here.

Huffington Post writes about Joe Maxwell winning a “right to farm” ballot issue in Oklahoma defying the Republican tide? See it here.

Former KC Star columnist Yael Abouhalkah heads to the Peace Corps.  See it here.

Congresswoman Ann Wagner’s quarter showed $3.3M on-hand.  And about $296K was raised after the Sam Fox letter that was supposed to chill donations to her….

eMailbag on Senate 8 Poll

How do you leave Jacob Turk of the poll?  He is the concern for Cierpiot.

Help Wanted

Renew Missouri seeks Policy Director.  “The Policy Director will advance the deployment of renewable energy and energy efficiency in Missouri.  In close cooperation with the Executive Director and the Staff Attorney, the Policy Director will be responsible for ensuring that the organization’s grant deliverables are being met through coalition building, coordination with allies, and education of decision-makers…”  See it here.

Today’s Events

From Mary Scruggs’ indispensable calendar:

MIC-PAC Golf Tournament – Redfield Golf Course – Eugene.

Lobbyists Registrations

Brian Kinkade added Missouri Hospital Association.

David Jacobson added Noridian Healthcare Solutions.

Shawn D’Abreu deleted Missouri Centers For Independent Living (MOCIL).

$5K+ Contributions

Grace River PAC - $50,000 from Herzog Contracting.

Ridgely PAC - $100,000 from Herzog Contracting.

CLEAN Missouri - $50,000 from Midwest Region Laborers Political League Education Fund.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $5,001 from Friends of Robert Cornejo.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Jeffrey Earl, Richard Callow, David Klarich.