Tuesday, October 17, 2017

Q&A #1: What Did We Learn From the October Fundraising Quarter?

Short answer: Front-runners are already emerging, and others need to show big January quarters.

 

In several state senate races, this fundraising quarter has led to clear front-runners.  In Senate 18, Cindy O’Laughlin’s $154,833 puts her far ahead of the three state representatives who have been talking of running for the seat.  Rep. Nate Walker ended the quarter with only $1,500 in the bank.  Rep. Lindell Shumake did better, but not much better with $10,676 on-hand.  Rep. Craig Redmon was the more aggressive of the three raising $24K.  But with $16K in expenses, he only added $8K to his bottom-line and finished with $36K.

In Senate 24, Sen. Jill Schupp has over $500K on-hand with no visible Republican opponent.  It’s a swing district, but the clock is ticking on a credible Republican to show up and start pounding the pavement if the GOP wants to make a run at this seat this cycle.

In Senate 32, the door is still open after neither Rep. Bill White nor Charlie Davis ripped the cover off the ball.  One MOScouter says that there’s some discontent with this choice to replace Sen. Ron Richard.  We’ll see if the talk materializing into something more.

In Senate 34, Tony Luetkemeyer ended with $195,539.  It looks like Harry Roberts will be his main competition. Roberts raised $60K and finished with $72K in the bank.  The January quarter will be important to watch.

Finally for Auditor, Rep. Paul Curtman needs to show he can raise enough money to run a credible statewide campaign.   Despite his large grassroots following, he will get slaughtered against the money tsunami of David Wasinger if he doesn’t put some big numbers on the board – or attract the support of some third-party IEs.

Curtman only has $3,537 in the bank.  He shouldn’t waste time delaying a formal announcement – the MEC website already shows auditor as the office he’s seeking.  He needs to start dialing for dollars TODAY.

 

Top 25 Biggest COHs

Greitens For Missouri - $2,374,238

Citizens for Steve Stenger - $1,928,634

Hawley For Missouri - $1,045,563

Leadership For America - $864,470

Eastern MO Laborers Education & Benevolent Fund - $836,515

Carpenters Help In The Political Process (CHIPP) - $741,972

CLEAN Missouri - $701,451

Mantovani For STL - $685,039

Nicole Galloway for Missouri - $665,380

Citizens For Wasinger - $645,954

Pipefitters Assoc Local Union # 533 - $610,964

Friends of Gregory FX Daly - $601,572

Supporters of Health Research and Treatments - $542,154

Schupp for Senate - $510,126

Callahan for Missouri - $492,867

Home Building Industry Political Action Committee - $465,727

MO National Education Assoc PAC - $436,188

HealthPAC - $430,701

We Are Missouri - $407,793

MO Republican Party $383,414

Committee to Elect Scott Taylor - $362,893

Property Casualty Insurers Association of America Political Account - $325,032

Friends of Todd Richardson - $324,135

Friends of Eric Burlison - $317,237

Missouri Realtors PAC Inc - $308,730

Midwest Region Laborers’ Political League Education Fund - $307,196.

 

Sources: Stukins Exits

Although Austin Stukins is still listed on the Missouri Republican Party’s website as the executive director, multiple Republicans tell me that he’s already left the job.

Stukins was hired in March. It’s unclear what has led to his departure…

 

Axiom For Cierpiot

On Twitter GOP consultant Jeff Roe posted a TV ad supporting Rep. Mike Cierpiot’s Senate 8 candidacy.  See it here.

The ad is paid for by the Missouri Senate Campaign Committee.  That’s the Senate Republican Caucus campaign vehicle.  Their entrance, plus the power of Axiom Strategies means this race is get serious attention in the final month.

What It Means

Between Cierpiot’s better organization, and the big money flowing through independent expenditures, the best bet is that no upset or “odd bounce” occurs here, and Cierpiot joins the Senate side of the building.

 

Merger Talk

Talk that Senate Pro Tem Ron Richard may pre-file a bill to enable St. Louis City re-enter St. Louis County is the latest on Richard’s support for governmental reorganization in the St. Louis region.  It’s hard to imagine something of this nature passing the state legislature next session.  It could be easily derailed by a Republican filibuster in the Senate, or by intense scrutiny from the new Local Government Chair, Rep. Shamed Dogan.  However one reader thinks “it’s politically naive to believe that the pro-merger faction won’t try to find influence and support within the state Capitol as they also assess the viability of a ballot initiative…”

 

Gorka for Monetti?

Tipster… Sebastian Gorka, who worked in the White House and is a fixture on cables shows as part of the Bannon wing of the Republican Party, is coming to headline a fundraiser for Tony Monetti (see his website here), one of Josh Hawley’s primary challengers….

 

Schnieders to Mizzou

Hours after I wrote of the rumors of Richard’s chief of staff Dusty Schnieders going to do government affairs for Mizzou, the official press release hit in-boxes….

 

Greitens to Europe

The press release: Governor Eric Greitens will depart today for a trade mission to the United Kingdom and Switzerland. The trip will include meetings with government officials, business executives, and workforce development leaders…. Approximately 15 percent of Missouri’s nearly $14 billion worth of exports are destined for Europe. The UK is Missouri’s 8th largest export destination, and Switzerland is Missouri’s 17th largest. While in Europe, the Governor will meet with many industry leaders, with a particular focus on the financial and professional service and manufacturing sectors…

 

Schaefer Registers

In the lobbyist registrations (below) former Sen. Kurt Schaefer registers to lobby….

 

Bits

Governor Eric Greitens has appointed Matthew (“Matt”) P. Hamner, of Osage Beach, as Circuit Judge for the 26th Judicial Circuit, which covers Camden, Laclede, Miller, Moniteau, and Morgan Counties.  He will replace the Honorable Stanley Moore, who retired last month.

 

Post-Dispatch reports that Rep. Elijah Haahr will meet with Trump official to talk about local policies.  See it here.

 

Politico reports that Sen. Claire McCaskill dines with Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump to talk tax reform.  See it here.

 

Today’s Events

Powered by Mary Scruggs’ indispensable calendar:

Sen. Bob Onder Reception – NOTE CHANGE IN VENUE – Cabin Creek Farm, Augusta – 5PM.

 

New Committees

Supporters of a Better SJSD was formed.  They are opposing St. Joseph property tax increases on the ballot in November.  See the paperwork here.

Committee for a Healthy Community was formed.  They are supporting smoke-free initiatives in St. Louis County and St. Charles County.  See the paperwork here.

James Hoke formed a candidate committee (Committee To Elect James Hoke) to run for Associate Circuit Judge Bates County as a Republican.

Dirk Deaton formed a candidate committee (Dirk Deaton For Missouri) to run for House 159 as a Republican

Stephen Miller formed a candidate committee (Miller For Mayor) to mayor of Kansas City.

Mike Huff formed a candidate committee (Committee To Elect Mike Huff For Council) to run for Council Person District At Large City of Independence.

Robert Stokes formed a candidate committee (Stokes For Missouri) to run for House 162 as a Republican.

 

Lobbyists Registration Changes

Doug Nelson, Kurt Schaefer, Jean Paul Bradshaw added WE Shoehigh LLC, Lathrop Gage Consulting LLC, and Lathrop Gage LLP.

Richard McIntosh and Zach Brunnert added Informatix Inc.

Morry Cole added The Missouri Bar.

Heath Clarkston and Harry Gallagher added Capital Health Management; and deleted Jeffrey E. Smith Companies LLC, Crown Castle USA Inc., Netchoice, and Missouri Foundation For Equity In Higher Education

David Kent added Missouri Bankers Association; and deleted Missouri Credit Union Association, and Heartland Credit Union Association.

Paul Mouton added David Humphreys

Jeff Aboussie deleted Kiel Center Partners, and SC STL.

 

$5K+ Contributions

Regional Progress PAC - $10,000 from Show Me Victories LLC.

Missouri Forward PAC - $10,000 from Missouri Hospital Association.

KC Transportation Transit and Tourism Committee (KC3T) - $10,000 from Kansas City Industrial Council.

KC Transportation Transit and Tourism Committee (KC3T) - $10,000 from TranSystem Corporation.

 

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Sen. Jamilah Nasheed, PSC Commissioner Scott Rupp, and Ray Hefner.