Monday, May 23, 2016

MOScout Poll Follow-Up

While I get the Hillary Clinton haters/fatigue/disapproval (I really do), I continue to be amazed that Donald Trump is considered a viable alternative.  And last week’s MOScout poll shows it again with Trump leading Clinton in Missouri.  See the poll here.

My only explanation is that Trump is tapping into an extremely high voter discontent.  That discontent was also shown in the poll with twice as many Missourians saying that the state is on the wrong track as opposed to the right track (23% to 47%).   And this is with Missouri’s unemployment rate at 4.3%!!  Below the nation’s 5.0% rate.

The poll also shows that the legislature’s approval ratings are at 20% and Senator Roy Blunt’s is at 34%.

MOScout reader: I guess the theory that Trump will bring down the Missouri ticket doesn't work as well if Trump wins Missouri.


Senate 1 Not a Slam Dunk

Here’s a Remington Research poll, conducted for Missouri Alliance for Freedom looking at the Senate 1 general election match-up.  Notice again, Trump is neck-and-neck with Clinton even though this is a tilt-Dem district.

The poll shows that although Sen. Scott Sifton is the favorite, and leading Republican candidate Randy Jotte, the race is not a gimme for Dems.  And with the Senate Republicans usually better funded, it’s one to watch…

Survey conducted May 19 through May 21, 2016. 1,134 likely 2016 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2016 General Election. Margin of Error is   +/- 3% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding.


Q: If the election for United States Congress were held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democrat candidate?

Democrat: 46%

Republican: 43%

Undecided: 11%


Q: If the candidates in the General Election for President of the United States were the Republican Donald Trump and the Democrat Hillary Clinton, for whom would you vote?

Hillary Clinton: 45%

Donald Trump: 44%

Undecided: 11%


Q: What is your opinion of Scott Sifton?

Favorable: 20%

Unfavorable: 8%

No opinion: 72%


Q: What is your opinion of Randy Jotte?

Favorable: 7%

Unfavorable: 6%

No opinion: 87%


Q: If the candidates in the General Election for State Senate were the Republican

Randy Jotte and the Democrat Scott Sifton, for whom would you vote?

Scott Sifton: 40%

Randy Jotte: 30%

Undecided: 30%


Jackson Joins Gamble & Schlemeier

Pelopidas’ David Jackson is leaving the Gate Way Group and joining Gamble & Schlemeier.  This is a pretty big shake-up in the lobbying scene.  While Pelopdias often gets dinged as fully funded subsidiary of Rex Inc., Jackson has established a clientele of his own.  We’ll see if he’ll lasso them and bring them into the already burgeoning Gamble roster of clients.

The statement: Gamble &  Schlemeier, LTD today  announced the hiring of David Jackson, who will join the firm's roster of government relations specialists in June. Jackson began his career as the Missouri’s youngest registered lobbyist at age 19 and has spent the last decade working under veteran issue-advocate Travis H. Brown at Pelopidas, LLC. He quickly climbed the ranks within the firm and has served as managing partner of the Gate Way Group division since 2012….


Tettlebaum SJR Memo Backlash

Stalwart Republican Harvey Tettlebaum’s legal memo which pointed to potential problems in SJR 39 was apparently behind the movement to keep him from being a delegate.  See it here.

Lobbyist’s take: If the business community doesn't rally around Anne Zerr and Rick Stream, the Tea Party is going to strengthen its grip on this legislature.


Colona Among Judge Seekers

Rep. Mike Colona is again among those interviewing for a judgeship.  Looks like he has competition from Nixon-ite Deborah Price….

Pursuant to Supreme Court Rule 10.28(d), the 22nd Circuit Judicial Commission releases the following information relating to applicants for the vacancy created by the impending associate circuit vacancy… Deborah M. Bird, Timothy J. Boyer, Katharyn B. Davis, Suzette Carlisle, Francisco J. Carretero, Michael J. Colona, Mary C. Entrup, Katherine M. Fowler, Bridget L. Halquist, Heather J. Hays, Craig K. Higgins, Teneil L. Kellerman, Jessica W. Kennedy, Annette Llewellyn, Jennifer E. Matthew, Scott A. Millikan, Joan K. Miller, Deborah L. Price, David A. Roither, Ian C. Simmons, Jolene A. Taaffe, Michael L. Walton, and Lisl E. K. Williams


Brunner Bits

John Brunner’s team unveiled their latest TV ad with echoes of Trump? (“Unlike politicians I can’t be bought…”)   See it here.

And they’re continuing their small but steady ad buys.  Another ad contract: See it here.


MEC Dismisses Complaints

The Missouri Ethics Commission dismissed a complaint against Marthasville Board of Aldermen which had streets repairs where some of their relatives live.  That’s not a conflict of interest.  See it here.

And it dismissed a complaint against Yancy Williams that his organization, Citizens for a Better Columbia, should have filed paperwork for phone calls in a city council race.  See it here.


Bayer Buying Monsanto?

From Wall Street Journal: German pharmaceutical and chemicals giant Bayer said it made an all-cash offer to acquire Monsanto, valuing the U.S. agrochemicals company at $62 billion. Bayer, which confirmed last week that it had approached Monsanto about a takeover, said the $122-a-share offer values Monsanto at 37% over the company's closing share price of $89.03 on May 9.

What It Means

There’s a routine gnashing of teeth that goes on in the St. Louis civic scene whenever a large corporation gets bought out, it’s usually accompanied with the gloom of glory days past and a look in the rear view mirror at the 1904 World’s Fair.   But there’s nothing that damaging about billion dollar acquisitions to economic vitality.  So long as you can keep creating the next generation of economic engines… the next Express Scripts and Centenes.  That’s the key to a dynamic local economy.



In the large contributions, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Chris Koster lands $250K from the big dog of unions, AFSCME.


American Moustache Institute says that Rep. Mike Moon is not one of them.  See it here.


Rachel Johns lost her appeal to stay on the ballot against Rep. Josh PetersSee the decision here.  Peters is now unopposed.


Help Wanted

Missouri Right to Life is seeking to fill the new position of Field Development Director. This individual would maintain and expand the existing organizational structure, setting up new chapters statewide. This person must exhibit a passion for the pro-life cause, have excellent communication skills, both oral and written, have organizational skills and the ability to multi-task… Position would be based out of Jefferson City…


Today’s Events

Powered by Mary Scruggs’ indispensable events calendar:

Circuit Judge Jeff Harris fundraiser – Elks Lodge, Columbia – 5:30PM.


Lobbyists Registrations

Shawn Rigger added Online Lenders Alliance, Express Scripts, and Anheuser-Busch; and deleted Human Rights Campaign.

Steve Tilley deleted Competitive Energy for Missouri, and Human Rights Campaign.


$5K+ Contributions

Citizens to Elect Bobby Simpson - $5,001 from Missouri Cattlemans Association PAC.

UAW Region 5 Midwest States Political Action Committee - $6,000 from             UAW Region 5 Exchange Account.

HealthPAC - $6,100 from MidAmerica Division Office.

United Fod & Commercial Workers Local #655 Elect Political Action Fun - $6,572 from UFCW Local 655.

HealthPAC - $220,000 from MHA Management Services Corporation.

Koster for Missouri - $250,000 from AFSCME.



Happy birthday to Zach Monroe.