Monday, October 10, 2016

The Trump Tapes Fall Out

Post-Dispatch reports that Congresswoman Ann Wagner finally had enough.  See it here.


Judy Baker ‏@JudyBaker4MO: Enough is enough. What else is it going to take @Eric_Schmitt to #unendorse? I’m here to PROTECT Missouri families.


Rep. Andrew McDaniel explains his support for Trump on Facebook: Ask me why I'm defending Trump. I'll say this I am Christian I know I sin everyday and repent every night and ask for forgiveness. With that being said high up members of the GOP and big faith leaders are jumping and asking trump to back down. Again I believe like this if ye are without sin then be the first to cast a stone!!!! And since I believe the federal governments main job is to up hold the constitution "like our founding fathers intended them to do so" and protect its people from foreign and domestic terrorist. That's the main reason I'm voting for and support trump "he sins just like each of us" and if your raised like me there is no one sin that is greater than another!...


Jason Kander email blast: Senator Blunt's unwavering support for Donald Trump is spineless. If he's not willing to stand up to their party's presidential nominee at a time when it's so blatantly clear what's right, how can we count on him to ever stand up for Missourians?


From Sen. Ryan Silvey – who’s top staffer Aaron Willard is heading up the Trump efforts in Missouri – ‏@RyanSilvey: It's disheartening & sad that I can't even discuss the Presidential race at dinner b/c my daughter is 10 and the topic isn't age appropriate



All of this points to the same big unanswered question… will there be Trump fall-out in Missouri?  So far it does not seem to have affected the down-ballot races, after all Trump is leading Clinton in Missouri.

But down-ballot Republicans face a risk: that the polls will miss a growing discontentment with Trump among key demographics – say suburban women, i.e. soccer moms.  That Trump's bragging about how he can grope women because he's famous finally pushes them over the edge of disgust.  That they will end up withholding their votes from those politicians who meekly go along with that garbage.

We’ll see….


A Lasting Trump Impact?

Washington Post asks if there will be a stain on young Republicans who haven’t disavowed Donald TrumpSee it here.

Pull Quote: [Trump] threatens to diminish an entire generation of Republican leaders who stood by him and excused his behavior after attacks against women, the disabled, Latino immigrants, Muslim Americans, Syrian refugees, prisoners of war, Gold Star parents and others.


Joplin Globe Endorses Clinton

From the heart of Red Country Missouri… the Joplin Globe endorsed Hillary ClintonSee it here.

Pull Quote: During the past few months, we have presented editorials critical of Trump’s treatment of veterans; his disregard for the Constitution and the First Amendment; and his repeated derision of women, Mexicans, Muslims and even this week, members of our military who are suffering from post traumatic stress disorder…

We know that many of Clinton’s values are not in alignment with yours. The same is true for us. Her political viewpoints often contrast with the more conservative viewpoints of the Globe’s editorial board. At any other time and with any other candidates, The Joplin Globe’s endorsement likely would have gone a different way.

But there are 50 former senior Republican national security officials, Chertoff among them, who have signed a letter warning Trump would be a dangerous commander in chief. Other top Republicans who say they will vote for Clinton include former President George H.W. Bush; former Virginia Sen. John Warner, a veteran of the Republican national security establishment; and Henry Paulson, a former Treasury secretary in George W. Bush’s administration. Clearly, this election is different.

When it comes to the future security of America — the most important issue of our time — Clinton is the candidate who makes the most sense.


Other Debate Bits

Incoming Rep. Peter Merideth Facebook: I honestly can't believe they held a debate in St. Louis without a single direct question about criminal justice reform, policing, or racial disparities.


Trombonist Aaron Chandler on Facebook: Turn the sound off and it looks like they're singing duets. #islandsinthestream  See it here.


MRL Reiterates Neutrality on Amendment 3

From Missouri Right to Life PAC’s email blast…  “There is misinformation being circulated in television, radio, Facebook ads and phone calls concerning the Raise Your Hands for Kids Initiative, Amendment 3. Opponents of the initiative are stating that Amendment 3 will place abortion funding in the state constitution. Nothing could be further from the truth. Clear language has been added to the amendment that prohibits these funds from being used for abortion services or for embryonic stem cell research and cloning. Consequently, Missouri Right to Life is taking a neutral position on the proposed tobacco tax initiative RYHFK because, after careful review, it cannot envision any scenario where the funds could be used for anti-life purposes…”


An exasperated Dave Plemmons takes to Facebook:  So...just to get this straight...

Tobacco Marketers are telling people to oppose Amendment 3 -- known as Raise Your Hand 4 Kids -- because it "places abortion in the Missouri Constitution".

Tobacco Wholesales are telling people to oppose Amendment 3 -- because it "places abortion in the Missouri Constitution".

Planned Parenthood, America's largest abortion provider and promoter is telling people to oppose Amendment 3 -- because it PREVENTS any of those tax funds from going towards abortion.


Pro-Life Missourians, including many legislators and good conservatives, are embracing the propoganda that alleges somehow that abortion will be advanced if RYH4K is approved by voters.

Since WHEN did we let Tobacco Marketers and Wholesalers give us legal advice about abortion? Since WHEN did we agree with Planned Parenthood on a ballot initiative?


Emery on Homosexuality

The Missourian reports that Sen. Ed Emery thinks the removal of prayer from public schools has led to a normalization of homosexuality which is a mental illness. Got that?  See it here.

Pull Quote:  He went on to explain that because educators in the U.S. don't teach Christianity, things like homosexuality and gender politics have become normalized. He referred to homosexuality as a mental illness, and said the increased acceptance of homosexuality represents a "reversal of the character of America." "How can harmful thoughts and unnatural behavior that formerly portrayed mental illness, suddenly become normal behavior, even privileged by government mandates," Emery said. "I believe the beginning of degradation in education began with the removal of prayer and the bible in 1962 and '63."


MOScout Poll

The MOScout Poll of Senate 19 last weekend showed Rep. Stephen Webber with a healthy 55% to 38% lead over Rep. Caleb Rowden.   See the full results here.

I like to look inside the various House districts to see if it can shed some light on those races.  Of course, poll-readers know that the margin of error goes up dramatically once you move into the smaller sample size of the crosstabs.  So don’t take them for gospel, take them for what they are: another data point.

This poll shows Hillary Clinton beating Donald Trump by solid margins in House 45 (Rep. Kip Kendrick unopposed) and House 46 (Webber’s seat; Dem Martha Stevens running against Republican Don Waterman) as you’d expect.  Those are Democratic districts.  But it also has Clinton slightly ahead in the swing district of House 47; and Webber is winning in House 47 as well.  That would seem to bode well for Democratic challenger Susan McClintic’s chances against Republican Rep. Chuck Basye.

eMailbag on MOScout Poll Crosstabs

Your poll shows Donald Trump winning women by two and Hillary Clinton winning men by twenty. I'd suggest you burn it and ask for your money back. It's either a bogus poll or you just polled the only place in the country where that's true.



Chris Koster knows his audience… Scott Charton posted this picture of a camo Koster sign (next to a Mike Parson) in rural Missouri.  See it here.


And Charton snarks on Jay Nixon via Twitter.  See it here.


Emily Wales has left the Auditor’s Office where she was Communication and Policy Counsel; she’s now at the Attorney General’s Office.


Harry Otto after leaving the Auditor’s Office when to work in the legislature as a fiscal analyst.  According to the Missouri Accountability Portal it looks like he’s left the legislature.


eMailbag on the un-littleness of Little Tobacco

The money that "little tobacco" will be spending on this fight begs the question of how "little" they really is.  After all, they account for 30% of the tobacco market in Missouri when non-participating manufacturers have 6-7% market share in other states. Lastly, if we're comparing do-gooders, let's remember that big tobacco is supporting a tax on themselves to pass a law that will require all tobacco companies, participating and non-participating, to pay the state for Medicaid costs associated with smoking related illnesses. 


Lobbyists Registrations

Gretchen Logue deleted Missouri Coalition Against Common Core.


$5K+ Contributions

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $25,000 from Missourians for Mike Cierpiot.

Koster for Missouri - $25,000 from Operating Engineers Local 101 PAC.

Missourians for Byron DeLear - $6,059 from Missouri Democratic State Committee.

Koster for Missouri - $100,000 from International Union of Operating Engineers Political Education Committee.

Scott Sifton for Missouri - $20,572 from Missouri State Democratic Committee.

Scott Sifton for Missouri - $16,370 from Missouri State Democratic Committee.

Friends of Todd Richardson - $10,000 from David Steward.

Voters for Susan McClintic - $7,500 from Safer Families for Missouri.

Kansas City Missouri Republican Senate PAC - $5,001 from Hegeman for Senate.

Teresa Hensley for Missouri - $100,000 from United Association Political Education Committee.

Greitens for Missouri - $10,000 from McDonald Logistics Inc.

Greitens for Missouri - $100,000 from Bernard Marcus.

Citizens to Elect Mike Kehoe - $7,500 from Emery Sapp & Sons.

Ashcroft for Missouri - $15,000 from RSLC Missouri PAC.

Missourians for Fair Taxation - $650,044 from National Association of REALTORS.

MO Republican Party - $250,000 from Rex Sinquefield.

MO Republican Party - $27,849 from Committee to Elect Randy Jotte.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $5,001 from Hegeman for Senate.

Democratic Attorneys General Association Missouri - $50,000 from National DRIVE Committee (Teamsters).

Democratic Governors Association Missouri – $41,000 from Democratic Governors Association.

Democratic Attorneys General Association Missouri - $25,000 from Troutman Sanders.

Democratic Attorneys General Association Missouri - $50,000 from Grant & Eisenhofer PA.

Democratic Attorneys General Association Missouri - $25,000 from Prudential.

Greitens for Missouri - $10,000 from Jeffrey Cook.

Greitens for Missouri - $10,000 from Richard Arnoldy.

Greitens for Missouri - $5,001 from Stephen Desloge.

Greitens for Missouri - $15,000 from Educare Capital Partners.

Citizens for a Safer Jackson County - $10,000 from James Nutter.

Citizens for a Safer Jackson County - $50,000 from Health Care Foundation of Greater Kansas City.

Citizens for a Safer Jackson County - $10,000 from Hallmark Cards Inc.

Democratic Attorneys General Association Missouri - $15,000 from Tim Gill.

Supporters of Community Fire - $20,000 from Sean Murray.

Koster for Misosuri - $10,000 from William Thompson.

Koster for Missouri - $25,000 from Davis, Bethune & Jones LLC.

Koster for Missouri - $25,000 from The Slay Committee.

Republican Governors Association Missouri - $750,000 from Republican Governors Association.

Koster for Missouri - $25,000 from Pipe Fitters Local Union 533 Volunteer Political Fund.

Democratic Attorneys General Association Missouri - $25,000 from Intuit.

Democratic Attorneys General Association Missouri - $50,000 from Google.

Citizens for Stephen Webber - $10,247 from Missouri State Democratic Committee.

Citizens for Stephen Webber - $10,000 from Operating Engineers Local 101.

Committee to Elect Randy Jotte - $10,000 from CNS Corporation.

Rucker for Missouri - $6,714 from Missouri Democratic State Committee.

Progress KC PAC - $10,000 from Burns & McDonnell.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $10,000 from Missouri Society Of Anesthesiologists.

House Republican Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Alferman for Missouri.

Friends of Caleb Rowden - $12,100 from Missouri Senate Campaign Committee.

Friends of Caleb Rowden - $10,000 from CNS Corporation.

Friends of Caleb Rowden - $100,000 from Central Missouri Senate Republican PAC.

Friends of Caleb Rowden - $100,000 from Missouri Senate Campaign Committee.

Koster for Missouri - $25,000 from AgXplore International LLC.



Happy birthdays to Roger Wilson, Rep. Denny Hoskins, Bruce Holt, Alderman Jack Coatar, and Terry Jarrett.