November 9 - Morning After

See full election results at the secretary of state’s website here.

 

Red Tsunami

A Republican tide swept over Missouri last night.

Donald Trump carried the state by 19 point over Hillary Clinton: 56.8% to 37.8%

Senator Roy Blunt beat back the challenger from Jason Kander winning 49.3% to 46.2%.

Eric Greitens was elected governor with 51.3% to Chris Koster’s 45.4%.

Sen. Mike Parson took the lieutenant governor’s office with 53% to Russ Carnahan’s 42.1%.

Sen. Eric Schmitt will be the new treasurer.  He won 56.6% of the vote to Judy Baker’s 39.1%.

Jay Ashcroft defeated Robin Smith 57.8% to 38.3%.

And Josh Hawley won the AG’s race. He took of the vote to 58.7% Teresa Hensley’s 41.3%.

 

While there will inevitably be some Wednesday morning quarterbacking from Democrats, the margins were so wide that it’s hard not to explain the slate’s demise by looking at the Republican tide – predominantly caused by Donald Trump trouncing Hillary Clinton.

 

In the state Senate Republicans denied Rep. Stephen Webber in Mid-MO and Rep. Caleb Rowden won 51.2% of the vote to Webber’s 48.8%.

This gives the Senate a wash, and keeps the Republican majority at 24 senators in the 34-member chamber.

In the state House Republicans incredibly also held their ground with an even night.  This despite having many more seats to defend than pick-up opportunities.  They only lost one seat – House 17 – where a Humphrey candidates Mary Hill had unseated a Republican incumbent in the primary.  Hill was then unable to hold off Democrat Mark Ellebracht.  But Dems gave a seat back in House 70 where Bill Otto didn’t run for re-election (instead he lost to Ann Wagner in a quixotic congressional bid).

Elsewhere the GOP retained firm control of Jefferson County, and beat back Dem challenges in Columbia and Springfield.

Dems technically picked up one seat as Democrat Jay Mosley wrestled House 68 from Democrat-turned-Independent Keith English, 57% to 43%.

 

What It Means

Last night was more than an electoral set-back for Democrats in Missouri.  This is a generational sentence to the wilderness.  It cements the transformation of Missouri as a red state, and puts target on Senator Claire McCaskill’s seat in 2018.

But the longer term is troublesome.  It’s assumed that Republicans will move quickly next year to enact their agenda as it relates to organized labor.  Paycheck protection, prevailing wage, and of course right to work.  These measures will severely weak organized labor and remove one of the prime pillars of the Missouri Democratic Party, and make it even harder for Dems to become competitive again.

 

The IPs

Amendment 1 (soil and parks tax) – PASSED 80.1%

Amendment 2 (campaign finance limits) – PASSED 69.9%

Amendment 3 (Raise Your Hand cigarette tax) – FAILED 40.7%

Amendment 4 (prohibiting sales tax expansion) – PASSED 57%

Amendment 6 (Voter ID) – PASSED 63.1%

Proposition A (alternative cigarette tax) – FAILED 44.7%

 

Humphreys Has Big Night

David Humphreys invested heavy this cycle and now he appears to have all the pieces in place – a big legislative majority and an accommodative Republican governor – to see the fruits: legal reform and labor reform.

 

MRL Still Relevant?

Did Eric Greitens puncture a hole in the seeming invincibility of the endorsement of Missouri Right to Life’s endorsement?  First he won the Republican primary as the only non-endorsed candidate; then he won the general consolidating the Republican base again without it.

 

Amendment 4 Comeback Kid

In a late September poll MOScout showed Amendment 4 with 21% YES, and 53% NO, with 26% undecided.

A month later, just weeks before the election, it had surged to 45% YES, 39% NO, and 16% undecided.  That was a remarkable gain of 24 points in about a month.

Last night it finished with 57%

That’s a rocketing 35-point increase in just over a month.

Credit goes to a sweeping grassroots effort led by the 20,000-member Missouri Association of Realtors.  The Missouri campaign team was David Barklage, as general consultant; Jon Ratliff (Palm Strategies) as campaign manager; Scott Charton as communications director; and Thompson Communications handling the advertising.

 

MO GOP Challenges Ahead

Missouri Republicans have countless reasons to be happy this morning, but with great blessings sometimes come some difficulties.

First, electorally, Missouri Republicans spent the last eight year running against Barack ObamaHillary Clinton would have extended this harvest another four years.  But now with Donald Trump’s victory, they’ll no longer have that go-to strategy in their playbook.

Obamacare has been their bogey-man, but it’s up to Trump now to deliver on his promise to “repeal it and replace it with something better.”

Second, they have to govern.  And instead of have a Democratic governor to toss aside some of the crazier agenda items of their more radical members, Republicans will have to find a way to keep their far-right wing from setting the direction of the Party.

 

House GOP Caucus

The House Republicans will travel to Jefferson City today and caucus at 1PM.  On their agenda will be choosing new leadership.  The speaker pro tem race is the biggest one.  Rep. Elijah Haahr is expected to win that against Rep. Joe Don McGaugh.

Caucus Chair: Elaine Gannon, Mike Kelley, Glen Kolkmeyer, and Becky Ruth.

Caucus Whip: Jason Chipman, Charlie Davis, and Steve Lynch.

 

MOScout Guru

Scott Dieckhaus wins the MOScout Guru title.  He correctly picked an entire Republican sweep of the statewide as well picking Scott Sifton and Caleb Rowden to win the Senate seats, and then was closest to Trump’s Missouri margin with 55%.

While it pales compared to winning the Guru title, Dieckhaus’ Palm Strategies worked on the successful Amendment 4 campaign, Rowden’s upset Senate 19 win, the defenses of Reps. Kevin Corlew and Chuck Basye, as well as working with the House Republican Campaign Committee across Missouri.  Pretty good night.

 

Market Futures Dive

The election of Donald Trump sent market futures tumbling last night.  He has the potential to be the most anti-markets president of my lifetime, though President Richard Nixon instituting price and wage controls is a tough bar to beat.

There are three ingredients to production – materials, labor and capital – and Trump is outspokenly anti-market in each realm.  He would “renegotiate” trade deals reversing America’s long-standing position for freer trade; he is anti-immigrant which will restrict the natural market flow of labor; and he plans to tell companies like Apple where they can build their plants and keep their profits.

We should be shocked if the markets rallied on the election of such a president.

 

Bits

St. Louis City Police Chief Sam Dotson u-turned his decision to run for mayor and said he’s focus on his day job instead.  See it here.

 

Christopher Miceli started a campaign committee to run for Senate 17 (in 2020) as a Democrat.  See it here.

 

Rep. Lincoln Hough is elected District 2 Commissioner of Greene County.

 

eMailbag: Why Kander Lost?

Before the vote came in, this email came in: When Kander loses, chalk it up to the momentum-stopping announcement 9 days before the election from J Edgar Comey.  The original J Edgar, who knew how to play in elections, would have been embarrassed by the current director. He also would be embarrassed by the free-lance leaking that has infected a police agency formerly known for its discipline.

 

Lobbyist Registrations

Tony Dugger added Tony R Dugger & Associates.

Sagar Shah deleted Uber Technologies Inc.

 

$5K+ Contributions

Koster for Missouri - $6,895 from Missouri Corn Growers Association State PAC.

Koster for Missouri - $6,895 from Missouri Soybean Association State PAC.

Koster for Missouri - $6,489 from Working America Coalition AFL-CIO.

 

Birthdays

Happy birthday to Rep. Kathy Swan.