Thursday, May 19, 2016

Why SJR 39 Was Good for the Senate

From an observer:  The Senate was in no way harmed by the SJR 39 fight. It demonstrated to its large base of social conservatives a true commitment to them - even to the point of going toe-to-toe with the business community. In the era of Donald Trump and disgust at the establishment that is supposedly too close to business interests at the expense of the citizenry, I don't see how this could be a negative.

There was no long-term fallout from the PQ. In fact, demonstrating a willingness to use the PQ for Senate priorities may well have lead to the relative ease of passing the gun bill on the last day of session. The D's didn't have any reason to doubt the sincerity of the majority to follow through.

One school of thought holds that the more the PQ is used, the more the "custom and courtesy" (and that is all it really is) of allowing the minority to block GOP priorities fades. The last day of session may be the beginning of just such a new era as the GOP supermajority realizes just how easy it is to flex their muscles ...but that remains to be seen.

SJR 39 passed so quickly in the Senate that opponents lacked time to organize. In fact, even the MO Chamber for the most part sat on the sidelines during the long filibuster. As a result relations with the business community remain solid and relations with the base have never been better (thanks in part to a willingness to take on Planned Parenthood frontally with contempt hearings).

Contrast this to the situation the House finds itself in. The Senate served SJR 39 up to the House on a silver platter. It could have been passed and on to the Secretary of State before spring break and it would have caused scarcely a ripple in the 2016 session. Since it went straight to the voters, there would have been no bloody override fight in September and legislators who faced criticism for their vote could always say that they simply wanted the people to decide the issue. As it turned out, the surprising delay by the House led to the fiasco that split their base.

There is a strong sense of outright betrayal by the base on an issue (religious liberty) that may well be the new "litmus test" for conservatives - supplanting even fidelity to the pro-life cause and the Second Amendment which have become expected of MO GOP legislators.

The business community is as happy as they ever are but in any case, where else were they going to turn?  An alliance with Democrats to move their agenda?! Of course not.

As I see it, SJR 39 was a net win for the Senate and a huge loss for the House.

 

Polling Memo: Zimmerman Leads

From: Mark Mehringer, Peak Campaigns

Re: Zimmerman on track to win the Democratic Primary for Attorney General

Jake Zimmerman holds a significant lead over Teresa Hensley in the Democratic Primary race for Attorney General. While many primary voters are still undecided at this early point in the race, Zimmerman already leads by 9 points.

Initial support for Zimmerman stands at 24% while support for Hensley is 15%. Further, as voters learn more about the candidates, Zimmerman expands his lead.

Democratic primary voters know Zimmerman surprisingly well for a first time statewide candidate: 46% recognize his name. Only 30% have currently heard of Hensley.

The St. Louis area, where Zimmerman’s name ID is highest, will account for more than half of the electorate.

Further, Zimmerman's message and background resonate with voters. After voters hear positive information about both candidates reflecting information on their websites, Zimmerman's lead jumps to 23 points . His overall support climbs to 52%, while support for Hensley only grows to 29%...

While Zimmerman clearly has the advantage in this race, many voters are currently undecided. It is imperative, then, that Zimmerman continue to outpace Hensley in fundraising if he is going to ensure he wins the Democratic nomination for Attorney General in Missouri , and ultimately the general election as well. Our research shows a clear path to victory in August, and November, if he can continue to raise funds on the pace he has set thus far.

Peak campaigns conducted a statewide survey of 601 likely Democratic Primary voters in Missouri on April 2428, 2016. For a randomly selected sample of 601 interviews, the margin of error is +/4.0%.

 

Bits

John Brunner is adding Joplin to his TV ad buys.  See it here.

 

The Missouri Carpenters Union announced that they’re “supporting former U.S. Representative

Russ Carnahan in his bid to become our next lieutenant governor. As part of a family long known for public service, Carnahan has built a commendable record of achievement, earning the respect of working families across our state….”

 

And a few MOScout readers sent me this link concerning LG candidate AC Dienoff.

 

eMailbag on Grades

Would have given Richard /Kehoe a B-. Although they likely caused the 40 hr filibuster, they did avert a last week meltdown allowing several pieces of low profile legislation to cross the finish line… Don't know how you gave Onder a B, a C would have been generous. He will suffer long term damage from those with business interests in our state.

 

Rep. Justin Alferman deserves an 'A'. He played an integral role on Ethics, Voter ID, expansion of A+ Scholarships, etc. He was in the middle of everything…

 

Lobbyists Registrations

Matt Jesse added Airbnb.

Gregory Porter deleted Missouri Full Employment Group LLC, and Kansas City Anti-Violence Project.

 

$5K+ Contributions

Koster for Missouri - $25,000 from Steven Craig.

MO Leadership Committee - $7,000 from Engler for Missouri.

Midwest Region Laborers’ Political League Education Fund - $5,742 from Laborers Supplemental Dues Fund.

Koster for Missouri - $20,000 from Robb & Robb LLC.

Koster for Missouri - $15,000 from Anita Robb.

Koster for Missouri - $15,000 from Gary Robb.

Friends to Elect David Millsap - $7,000 from David Millsap.

Russ Carnahan for Missouri - $7,500 from Schlitcher Bogard & Denton LLP.

Greitens for Missouri - $5,001 from Mary and John Gunther.

 

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Rep. Gary Cross, and former Sen. Chuck Purgason.