Thursday, November 3, 2016

More Greitens Dark Money Connections

A look at the federal filings for LG PAC and SEALs for Truth shows that they used the same law firm: Clark Hill PLC.  And curiously paid nearly the same amount to the firm.

LG PAC’s expenditure to Clark Hill for legal fees totaled $6,311.  See it here.

SEALS for Truth paid Clark Hill for legal fees totaling $6,305.  See it here.

It’s almost like its routine work for this law firm.

LG PAC and SEALs for Truth appear more and more to be two vehicles with the same driver.  But because they deliberately concealed the source of their funding we’ll never know who paid for the fuel.

 

PPP: Trump + 13, Koster +3

Public Policy Polling released a poll yesterday.  See it here.

It shows Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton 50% to 37%, and Chris Koster still ahead of Eric Greitens 47% to 44%.

 

SOS Estimates Strong Turnout Next Week

The press release:  “Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander today announced that local election authorities have predicted 71 percent of Missouri’s registered voters will vote in the November 8, 2016, general election. This prediction is a compilation of the local turnout estimates submitted to Kander’s office by election authorities in each jurisdiction…”

How That Compares

2012: 65.95%

2008: 69.4%

2004: 65.1%

2000: 61.2%

What It Means?

Most likely nothing since we don’t know where the turn-out will be higher.  But generally the higher turnout in presidential cycles helps Democrats.  We’ll see….

And

Weather forecast looks pretty breezy and clear…

 

MOScout Forecast

You can see my Election Day predictions in an Excel spreadsheet here in the Special Reports.

I’m predicting Dems to pick up one seat in the Senate.  I have Stephen Webber winning Senate 19, with Scott Sifton holding Senate 1 and no crazy upsets in Senate 11, 15 or 17.

I’m predicting Dems to pick up four seats in the House (five is you include taking House 68 from Independent Keith English).  My heuristics in making House predictions is that I loathe betting against incumbents.  It just doesn’t happen too often that incumbents get beaten.  This year I’m imagining the presidential turnout will give us some topsy-turvyness.   My guess across Missouri’s landscape: I think Donald Trump (or anti-Hillary Clinton sentiment) draws out conservative voters in Jefferson County who will fortify Republicans hold there.  Same thing in the bootheel.  But I think it may have the opposite impact in the university centers of Mid-MO and Springfield.  And that’s where I think Democrats have the best chance to make their gains.

 

NYTimes on Sexual Harrassment

The New York Times reports on sexual harassment in the political world.  Senator Claire McCaskill gets the lede and the closing quote.  See it here.

Senator Claire McCaskill, Democrat of Missouri, got her first tutorial about life as a woman in politics as a college intern at the statehouse in Jefferson City in 1974, when male lawmakers made lecherous remarks to her in the elevator; she took the stairs after that….

“There’s an insular atmosphere, and people get heady with power,” Ms. McCaskill said. “When people are deferential to you for your position, I don’t think it helps…”

Many women in politics say the culture will not change until there are more women around — and that is happening, albeit slowly. Today, women account for roughly 19 percent of Congress: There are 20 women in the Senate and 84 in the House. Ms. McCaskill’s chief of staff is a woman, as is her legislative director.

“I think that gives a signal to other young women,” she said. “It helps to have a woman in charge.”

 

DeLear Protective Order

Republicans are hitting Democrat Byron DeLear with a mail piece which will reference a protective order issued against him in the state of California in 2003.  See the last page of that document here.

DeLear’s race is in House 70 (St. Louis County) where Rep. Bill Otto decided to run for Congress (against Ann Wagner) rather than re-election.

It’s a tight race with HRCC investing money in an attempt to win a pick-up.  I have been projecting Dems to hold.  We’ll see if this changes the dynamic of the race.

DeLear Statement

We all go through personal and private matters, as was this situation that took place a very long time ago for me. The bottom line is that I always have and always will have the utmost respect for women and nothing about this scenario calls that notion into question.

And

A Town Hall Call with DeLear and McCaskill scheduled for today was postponed.

 

Human Remains Found on Messer Farm

A hunter stumbled on human remains presumably related to the disappearance of Lynn Messer, wife of lobbyist Kerry Messer.  It looks like a tragic end to a tragic mystery…  See it here.  And see Messer’s Facebook post here“I have been told the remains do in fact have artificial hips (as well as eye glasses) - but it will take several days, weeks, or even up to a couple of months to confirm this is absolutely Lynn. With what I have been told, it would appear almost certainly to be her, but absolute confirmation must be established as we hold our breaths. Please be in prayer for our family, which has been torn apart by all the stress and circumstances surrounding this past 28 months ordeal. I have no idea what will transpire moving forward from today. However the critics are going wild with accusations and the media is hounding...”

And

Abram Messer, son of Kerry Messer, is no longer a registered lobbyist.  He terminated his registration on September 4 of this year.

 

Wagner Blinks

Congresswoman Ann Wagner gave a non-re-endorsement endorsement of Donald Trump yesterday.  Jaime Allman gets the scoop.  See it here.

 

Sups Misbehavin

KFVS reports “The superintendent of the Dexter School District and the superintendent of the Van Buren School District are both under investigation for driving under the influence…” See it here.

Rep. Tila Hubrecht represents the Dexter area, and Rep. Steve Cookson represents the Van Buren area.

 

Gephardt Reppin Peabody

McClatchy reports that Peabody Coal is still paying its lobbyists a hefty sum despite being in bankruptcy.  See it here.

Pull Quote: Although Peabody Energy, the world’s largest coal producer, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in April, it has still paid its lobbyists $1.2 million this year, according to federal disclosures. Among the company’s lobbyists: several former congressional staffers and three former members of Congress, including onetime House Democratic leader and two-time presidential candidate Dick Gephardt of Missouri….

 

Human Cost of Heroin

Laurie Elsass (wife of Todd Akin consultant Rex Elsass) gives a look inside the hell that heroin can inflict.  I was raising three, perfectly healthy, tow-headed little boys in an upscale suburb of Columbus [OH].  I had been blessed to be able to leave my lobbying profession behind and become a full-time mother. I was ecstatic.  Life was darn-near perfect for me…  See it here.

 

Auditor  Action

Press release: Missouri State Auditor Nicole Galloway met with residents of the city of Rich Hill in Bates County to discuss the results of a newly-released audit of the city…. The audit shows financial mismanagement caused in part by city leadership that does not have a clear understanding of the status of the city's budget or financial condition. The report describes how this has led to inappropriate transfers of money between the city's funds, including transfers of money from restricted funds. In other words, the city is taking money that is designated for a specific expense and spending it on other things… Auditor Galloway also questioned whether residents were being charged fair and appropriate amounts for city utilities, like electricity, water and trash service.  City officials have not completed a formal cost study of utility rates, which would allow them to adjust rates to appropriate amounts. Instead the city is collecting utility revenue beyond what is necessary and then transferring the additional revenue to other city funds, potentially to cover budget shortfalls in other areas, even though the city is only supposed to spend utility funds on utility-related expenses….

Rich Hill is represented by Sen. Ed Emery and Rep. Patricia Pike.

 

Bits

Susan Henderson Moore was named a shareholder of Polsinelli.  See it here.

 

Lobbyist Brian Grace declares this to be the worst yard sign of the cycle in Missouri.

 

In the large contributions, Republican uber-donor Sam Fox is giving five-figure checks to Dems – Chris Koster and Teresa Hensley – presumably because he fears where their opponents would stand on the stem cell research that’s a top issue for him.

 

eMailbag: on Koster Being Against Amendment 3

Lobbyist: Suburban moms don’t know that Koster opposes three.  I’m an insider mom and I didn’t even know that.

 

eMailbag on Senate GOP Leadership $5K Dinner

I seriously doubt any "lobbying" will be done at a breakfast/dinner when you have multiple lobbyist participating in the discussions....I also wonder is Progress Missouri will denounce the House Democrats the same way they will denounce the Senate Republicans....I believe the House D's solicited contributions in exchange for ability to make a presentation before their entire caucus...

 

Lobbyists Registrations

Mike Gibbons and Tricia Workman added Amplify Education.

 

$5K+ Contributions

Koster for Missouri - $96,726 from Missouri Democratic State Committee.

Koster for Missouri - $50,000 from Sam Fox.

Koster for Missouri - $50,000 from Heavy Constructors Association PAC.

Koster for Missouri - $50,000 from Sheet Metal Workers’ Political Action League.

Citizens for Stephen Webber - $50,000 from CHIPP Political Account.

Friends of Caleb Rowden - $50,000 from Citizens to Elect Mike Kehoe.

Koster for Missouri - $40,000 from Teamsters Local #245 PAF.

Schmitt for Missouri - $35,000 from Republican State Committee.

Friends of Steve Helms - $34,905 from House Republican Campaign Committee Inc.

Missourians for Affordable Energy - $28,018 from MEDA PAC.

Greitens for Missouri - $25,000 from Karen Meara.

Greitens for Missouri - $25,000 from MacLean-Fogg Company.

Campaign for Children, Youth, and Families - $21,150 from powerful performance llc.

Planned Parenthood Votes St Louis - $20,000 from Advocates of Planned Parenthood of the St. Louis Region and Southwest Missouri.

Teresa Hensley for Missouri - $20,000 from Sam Fox.

Koster for Missouri - $19,220 from Missouri Democratic State Committee.

Missouri Democratic State Committee - $17,100 from Scott Sifton for Missouri.

Citizens for Stephen Webber - $13,639 from Missouri State Democratic Committee.

Friends of Caleb Rowden - $12,100 from Missouri Senate Campaign Committee.

Citizens for Stephen Webber - $10,969 from Missouri State Democratic Committee.

Citizens for Stephen Webber - $10,000 from Friends for Gina Walsh.

MO Insurance Coalition PAC - $10,000 from FEAPAC of Missouri.

Greitens for Missouri - $10,000 from Thomas Stillman.

Greitens for Missouri - $10,000 from Brad Bedell.

Koster for Missouri - $10,000 from Missouri Drive Fund.

Teresa Hensley for Missouri - $10,000 from Missouri Democratic State Committee.

Teresa Hensley for Missouri - $10,000 from EMILY’s List.

Lennon for Boone - $8,414 from Missouri State Democratic Committee.

Citizens for Vicki Lorenz Englund - $7,809 from Missouri Democratic State Committee.

Missourians for Byron DeLear - $6,512 from Missouri State Democratic Committee.

Berg for Change - $6,500 from UFCW Local 655 Elect Political Fund.

Friends of Martha Stevens - $5,688 from Missouri State Democratic Committee.

Russ Carnahan for Missouri - $5,100 from UAW Region 5 Midwest States PAC.

Schmitt for Missouri - $5,001 from Jeff Roe.

 

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Treasurer Clint Zweifel, former Rep. Kevin McManus, Kim Cella, and Emily Waggoner.