Tuesday, August 2, 2016
Paths to Victory
And so this closes out the best gubernatorial primary I can remember: four credible candidates each of whom could win. Eric Greitens raised and spent the most money, and had some of the most over-the-top commercials we’ve ever seen in Missouri. From the MOScout pick’em contest, he’s the favorite. John Brunner has a similar profile, but without the “sex slave” baggage – and without the telegenic charisma. Brunner’s been at or near the top of most polls. Catherine Hanaway and Peter Kinder both appear to need an outsized break from the undecideds to win. But there are enough of them that it could happen for either of them. For Hanaway, there’s the gender angle. And for Kinder, it’s that folks throw their hands up at all the back-and-forth ads and color in the circle of the known commodity.
In the LG race, Bev Randles’ massive spending – funded almost entirely by Rex Sinquefield with a little help from the Humphreys family – has put her into position to win this race. It will be close however going into Election Day. Sen. Mike Parson has run a stellar campaign, raising money, traveling the state, gathering up endorsements. On the Dem side, Russ Carnahan should trounce his opposition (including Rep. Tommie Pierson).
In the Secretary of State race, no polls have shown Sen. Will Kraus being able to make headway against Jay Ashcroft. Ashcroft threw up some negative ads in the final weeks which I would guess could run up the score even more. Robin Smith is unopposed on the Dem side.
For Treasurer, something I wouldn’t have expected… Judy Baker was picked to win by every single MOScout contest entry. Yes, she’s the favorite; yes I’m picking her to win, but usually you get someone to be a contrarian. Can Pat Contreras shock the world?! Eric Schmitt is unopposed on the Republican side.
In the Attorney General race, Jake Zimmerman is the favorite on the Democratic side because he’s far exceeded Teresa Hensley’s fundraising. Zimmerman has had good clean TV ads. Generally women get a gender bounce on the Democratic side of the ballot, and she has shown some late money come in, but I’d be surprised if it’s enough to keep this from being a 10 point race (55-45).
Finally on the Republican side, we can all be happy that it’s finally over. Josh Hawley is the favorite to win this. Between his campaign and the third-parties he seemed to overwhelm Sen. Kurt Schaefer on the air. The ads showing Schaefer declare himself a moderate are damning in a primary. Still most believe the race is closer than my last poll showed, and the terrorism hit on Hawley could give enough voters pause that Schaefer pulls it out.
One final note on this, while many Dems have been quite pleased by the nasty nature of the Republican primary, they should be cautious in thinking it will be an easy general election. Both GOP candidates have proven capable of raising huge amounts of money. And that should make Dems nervous.
And
I made up a nifty little scorecard to keep track of who winning in the various Republican primaries. Most statewide have a Rex Sinquefield versus David Humphreys split. Several legislative races feature Sinquefield and Humphreys together against labor-backed Republicans. And then I showed who’s been paying which consultants. See it here.
Also
You can see my predictions – made two weeks out – here. All statewide races as well as state senate and state house primaries.
Outcomes Tonight
Here’s an excerpt from a piece I wrote for the St. Louis Business Journal. See it here (maybe paywall).
Pull Quote: First, will Republicans make progress in obtaining a veto-proof majority on labor issues?.. In St. Charles’ Senate 23, Senate Republicans have a chance to tip the scales ever so slightly in their favor if pro-right to work businessman Bill Eigel defeats Rep. Anne Zerr.
If Eigel does win Tuesday, the stakes will be raised much higher for two contests in November. Senate 19 — in Columbia — is the Democrats’ best chance to regain a seat and even up the loss. Also Senate 1 — South St. Louis — is on the Republicans’ radar for an upset to steal a seat currently held by Democrat Sen. Scott Sifton. If Zerr loses in Senate 23, the battles for those seats could go nuclear.
Next, I’ll be watching to see if any of St. Louis’ mini-dynasties start to crumble. The Hubbards have been a political force in St. Louis for a few decades. Their family has seats as alderman, committeeman and state representative. Penny Hubbard – mother to former Rep. Rodney Hubbard – is facing her toughest challenge yet. Newcomer Bruce Franks whose activism was born from the Ferguson protests is trying to unseat her in House 78. Betting against the Hubbards is never a smart bet. Still it’s one to watch.
In St. Louis County Rick Stream is running for state Senate. The Streams have been a mainstay in Kirkwood politics, but Rick’s brother, Scott Stream, lost his mayoral bid earlier this year after serving many years on the school board. If Rick loses, this could be the end of the Stream Era in that part of St. Louis County.
On the north side of St. Louis County, Elbert Walton has been a longtime powerbroker. In House 75, Alan Gray is running to succeed his wife, Rochelle Gray, who’s Walton’s daughter. And in House 68 where Rep. Keith English didn’t file for re-election, there’s a spirited primary between Jay Mosley and former Rep. Bert Atkins. Mosley has Walton’s backing….
Calloway Hangs Out a Shingle
Former Rep. Don Calloway has left his post in government affairs with Anheuser Busch and started his own firm, Pine Street Strategies. See the website here.
Pine Street Strategies is not your typical Washington, D.C. lobbying firm. We position our clients to be trusted industry thought leaders through lobbying, public opinion shaping, and innovative stakeholder management. We love helping individuals and organizations to connect and evolve.
MO Press Joins Anti-Tax Effort
The press release from the Press Association….
The Missouri Press Association has joined a statewide coalition backing the Taxpayer Protection Amendment. If placed on the November ballot, the amendment would prohibit any new sales taxes on services to consumers, including advertising, that were not taxed as of Jan. 1, 2015.
The Missouri Press Association Board of Directors voted July 27, to join the coalition and support the amendment.
New sales taxes on services have been proposed in the last seven annual Missouri legislative sessions. Proponents of the amendment see it as an opportunity to enshrine in the Missouri Constitution that advertising, and other services, will not be subject to sales tax. The amendment will not affect existing use taxes or existing sales taxes on tangible goods…
CD-1: Final Words from the Candidates
Clay Attacks MCN: The Federal Election Commission, (FEC) has launched a formal investigation into the alleged diversion by Missouri State Senator Maria Chappelle-Nadal of almost $100,000 in state campaign funds, which appear to have been deliberately funneled to support her congressional campaign, a serious violation of federal election expenditure laws.
The FEC has opened case number MUR 7106 to investigate whether Chappelle-Nadal used unregulated state senate campaign funds for her benefit in the 1st congressional district race.
Chappelle-Nadal Says No To Monarchies: We are now 11 hours away from Election Day. For me, the day is similar to a special holiday, where each person has the opportunity to voice their opinion through their vote and activism. I wanted to share with you a video from a young man who I will be voting for at some point in my lifetime. His name is Marquis. He represents our future. The reason why I am running for Congress is because I want to do my best to provide the tools necessary for Marquis to thrive in a system that often works against him. It is an honor to have Marquis’ endorsement for Congress. It's Not A Crown….
Haas Shakes Fist At Post: IF I WIN ON TUESDAY, AS I HOPE TO, THO I'M THE UNDERDOG, AS IS MARIA, I'LL HAVE BETTER THINGS TO DO THAT STAND UP TO THE POST-DISGRACE AND ST. LOUIS UN-AMERICAN. BUT IF I DON'T WIN, WE NEED TO BRING RELIGION TO THEM. THEIR SINS: POST WROTE A NICE PROFILE ABOUT MY RACE, AND THEN NOT ONCE BUT TWICE TOLD READERS THAT I DIDN'T HAVE A RAT'S ASS CHANCE OF WINNING SO DON'T WASTER THEIR VOTE, OR WORDS TO THAT EFFECT. AND DIDN'T SAY THE SAME THING ABOUT MARIA. WE'RE BOTH UNDERDOGS. I DESERVE A LEVEL PLAYING FIELD. THEN THAT HORSE'S BUT OF AN EDITORIAL PAGE EDITOR DIDN'T PUBLISH MY LETTER MAKING THAT POINT! WTF? (WHY THE FACE). SO I WILL ORGANIZE A BOYCOTT OF THE POST'S ADVERTISERS UNTIL THEY FIRE THE POLITICAL EDITOR CHRIS AVE AND HIS BOSSES MARCIA KOENIG AND ADAM GOODMAN, WHO I UNDERSTAND HAS BEEN SABOTAGING PROFILES OF ME FOR 20 YEARS…
Lobbyists Registrations
Zach Brunnert and Richard McIntosh added Speridian Technologies LLC.
Krista Meyer deleted Missouri State Teachers Association.
Rachel Payton deleted Americans for Prosperity.
Aimee Priya Ghosh and Craig Saperstein deleted Yoga Alliance.
$5K+ Contributions
MO Society of Anesthesiologists Political Action Committee - $30,000 from Anesthesia Associates of Kansas City.
McKelvey for Judge Committee - $6,000 from Rebeca McKelvey.
Missourians for Randles - $25,000 from Missouri Club for Growth PAC.
Russ Carnahan for Missouri - $15,000 from Western Missouri and Kansas Kabirers District Council PAC.
Teresa Hensley for Missouri - $15,000 from United Association Political Education Committee.
Teresa Hensley for Missouri - $15,000 from United Association Political Education Committee.
Greitens for Missouri - $5,001 from John Miller.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Rep. Kimberly Gardner, Dawn Nicklas, former Reps. Mike Talboy, Tom Todd, and Jim Viebrock.