Friday, November 20, 2015

Moody on Budget

Former budget director Jim Moody sent his clients some look-around-the-corner forecasts for the state budget.  Among his observations is that the next governor could face some budget pressures at the start of their tenure.

From his calculations:

We think the current FY 2016 consensus revenue estimate will be exceeded, possibly by a pretty large amount.  But those revenues may be needed to fund increased spending demands, primarily in the Medicaid program, in FY 2016.  

Here are some rough numbers from MoHealthnet Division of possibly required general revenue (GR) supplemental funding: 100,000 eligible growth in Medicaid caseload plus higher utilization, $102 million GR; Pharmacy rebate and FRA shortfall, $17.4 million GR; Medicaid GR core reductions that need to be restored, $28.6 million GR; Part B Buy-In Increase, $5 million GR; Pharmacy Claw-back payment increase, $6 million GR.

We think that a tax cut that will take effect in January 2017 will be triggered by FY 2016 GR collections (which will grow by more than $150 million).  It is very possible a second tax cut gets triggered by FY 2017 GR collections.

FY 2017 will be very challenging due to spending pressures…


Landfill Legislation

Post Dispatch reports that “Federal legislation introduced Thursday by senators Roy Blunt and Claire McCaskill and representatives Ann Wagner and William Lacy Clay would transfer oversight of the landfill from the EPA to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, which handles the cleanup of other nuclear waste sites around St. Louis… The two agencies handle the funding of toxic sites differently. The EPA generally gets money from responsible parties before the cleanup starts, and the Army Corps usually gets reimbursed after finishing the work…” See it here.

MCN Statement

Sen. Maria Chappelle-Nadal issued a statement concerning the development…

"I applaud the congressional delegation for proposing concrete action on Westlake Landfill.  Filing legislation in the House and Senate to remove the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is a positive step towards putting the remediation of radioactive waste into more capable hands. However, it still falls short of an all-inclusive approach to providing a safe environment for people in the St. Louis region.

We don't know the extent of the problem and only testing using alpha, beta and gamma detection methods will fully identify all of the possible radioactive material at all sites; therefore the Corps must expand the search for radioactive waste…. The legislation does not address reported undocumented dumping at multiple unregulated sites around the St. Louis area…”


Jami Getting a Primary?

The St. Louis American’s weekly political gossip column, Political Eye, this week suggests that the resignation of Winston Calvert from his position as St. Louis City Counselor is a prelude to a state senate run against incumbent Sen. Jamilah NasheedSee it here.

Pull Quote: [H]is ignoring The American’s request for comment on his resignation while sending the same text to other media outlets could imply his next political move is something he expects that this paper would oppose, such as running against a black incumbent in 2016. The rumor mill on Wednesday had him preparing to file against state Senator Jamilah Nasheed.


Lewis to Bankers

Word is that Emily Lewis – staffer with Sen. Brian Munzlinger – will be headed to the Missouri Bankers Association…


Sharma Still Throwing Punches

Becky Sharma emailed supporters about the outcome of a lawsuit that Rep. Keith English had filed against her, for her hard-hitting mailers in their last campaign.  See her email here.

Pull Quote:  Keith English unilaterally dismissed his lawsuit against me and Tommy over two months ago because he had no case - I was simply telling the truth about him. Not only did I not have to pay him a dime in damages of any kind, but in fact he had to pay me $100 in sanctions for hindering the discovery process.

The lawsuit also uncovered the following:

That in addition to Florissant, Mr. English has known police reports on him in Cole, St. Louis and St. Charles Counties for even more incidents of domestic violence, which I didn't even know about at the time of the mailer; and other incidents…. That he uses the n-word frequently to refer to African-Americans, by his own admission and as indicated by text messages and voice mails obtained by our attorney…

The judge did not seal this information and all of it will be released publicly in the future…


Otto Pitching

Rep. Bill Otto sent an email blast explaining the path of his long-shot congressional bid against Congresswoman Ann Wagner.

He points out that Governor Jay Nixon beat Dave Spence in Missouri’s Second Congressional District; and Claire McCaskill beat Todd Akin there; and Chris Koster beat Ed Martin


Burlison on Refugees

Rep. Eric Burlison talks about the Missouri response to possible Syrian refugees in a video.  See it here.  Pretty fancy backdrop changes make it an instant classic.


City of Columbia Hires Federal Lobbyist

From Politico’s Influence (see it here)…


Nexxus Consulting, LLC: City of Columbia (Missouri)


Help Wanted

Axiom Strategies seeks “a Political Research Associate to work in the home office based in Kansas City, MO. Candidates should have political experience and be an organized employee with skills in research, written communication, presentation preparation and project and data management. Salary is commensurate with experience. For more information send your resume to RobPhillips, COO at


Federal Filings

Dairy Farmers of America Inc (DEPAC)’s October filing showed receipts of $23,002 and $923,759 cash on-hand.

Missouri Democratic State Committee’ November filing showed receipts of $151,857, and $22,104 cash on-hand.

Commerce Bancshares Inc PAC’s shoed receipts of $4,209 and $82,728 cash on-hand.

Peabody Energy Corporation Political Actin Committee’s November filing showed receipts of $5,545 and $22,170 cash on-hand.


This Weekend’s Events

From Mary Scruggs’ indispensable events calendar:

Rep. Travis Fitzwater Reception – Canterbury Hill Winery – JC – 6PM

Rep. Robert Cornejo Weekend – The Reserve at Augusta – 170 Church Rd. – Augusta

Saturday: Congressman Sam Graves Mizzou Tailgate – Lot D – Columbia.


Lobbyists Registrations

Linda Rallo added Alliance for Childhood Education.

Patrick Werner deleted Americans for Prosperity.


$5K+ Contributions

Greitens for  Missouri - $5,001 from Charles Schellhorn.



Happy birthdays to Rep. Sharon Pace, former governor Matt Blunt, and former Reps. Michael Vogt, and Myron Neth.

Saturday: John Valenti, and Ginger Steinmetz.

Sunday: Former Rep. Therese Sander.