Thursday, October 1, 2015

Last Minute Money

There will be more checks today and tomorrow, as checks sent before last night’s deadline make their way in.  But notable in the final crush…

Lots of John Brunner checks at the very end.  He’s starting to rev up his campaign.

$150K check to Sen. Bob Dixon, which probably makes no difference in this Republican gubernatorial race because Brunner, Eric Greitens, and maybe Catherine Hanaway will be raising millions, not hundreds of thousands.

Another $100K check to Greitens, from the same source as a $200K check to him at the start of the month.

And – just as a reminder how insane our no-limits environment is: the median household income in Missouri is $45,321.


Last Minute Pitch Headlines

Here’s a sampling of the headlines in fundraising emails as the deadline loomed….

Scott Sifton: Tightest Margin

President George H.W. Bush: Fifteen  Make the Mainstream Media panic

Erika Brees, We need 29 more in St. Louis by Wednesday  Fwd: dropping out

Bill Otto:  Cracks

Bev Randles:  Still Rolling

Pat Contreras: Worth 1,000 words

Pat Contreras: Put me over the top

Alexandra Raposo, Jason  Just one thing Jason omitted

Byron DeLear:   I want to count you in - only a few hours left to show your support!

Claire McCaskill:  Hillary needs our help by tonight Ignore all other emails. READ THIS.


Another Brunner Pre-Launch Web Ad

Very slick.  See it here.  I can’t decide if this means that the John Brunner campaign is wasting money on high production videos 300 people are going to see, or if it means they’re investing early in production and will have killer ads.

I guess: we’ll see…


KCStar: Greitens No-Shows

Birthday boy Steve Kraske reports that Eric Greitens was no-show at a poor attended event in his roll-out tour.  See it here.

Pull Quote: It may have been because only three folks were on hand to greet him, including a reporter for The Buzz. Shortly before the 2 p.m. scheduled start, a campaign volunteer said Greitens was running a few minutes late. But 10 minutes later, the volunteer said the visit was off because Greitens had been held up in Columbia, Mo.


Kraus Fundy

Last night Sen. Will Kraus had a fundraiser at the deadline.  It was in St. Charles, hosted by former Senate Pro Tem Tom Dempsey.  Heavy-hitters on the host committee included: John Bardgett, L.B. Eckelkamp, Greg Hoberock, Paul McKee, Ted Powers, Duane Simpson, Menlo Smith, Dave Spence, and Steve Tilley.


Although Jay Ashcroft – with his last name – remains the favorite, here’s the minority (growing) opinion: Expect Kraus to outraise his opponent again. The Army veteran is undeterred by the last name of his opponent. Some in the party are now wondering if John Jr. will be able to raise the funds necessary to win a general election if his lackluster performance so far is any indication of his abilities….


Cruz in STL

Presidential candidate Ted Cruz will be in St. Louis County this afternoon.

2pm to 4pm session of the 72nd Annual Meeting of the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons on Thursday, October 1. Senator Ted Cruz and LiveAction's Lila Rose will each speak at the Hilton Frontenac St. Louis, 1335 S. Lindbergh Blvd., St. Louis, MO 63131.

See it here.


Talent Launches Renewable Fuel Standard Org

From Politico’s Morning Agriculture:  The field of groups backing the Renewable Fuel Standard is growing once more. Former Sen. Jim Talent (R-Mo.) today will launch Americans for Energy Security and Innovation, a 501(c)(4) dedicated to supporting the RFS. Talent noted his support a decade ago for the law that created the RFS program. "I believe that biofuels are the most feasible replacement for oil as automobile fuel, and that we need a strong RFS so that private investors can develop the biofuels industry with adequate assurance that their potential market won’t be destroyed by manipulations from the foreign oil cartel," he said in a statement.

AESI is keeping mum on who precisely pays the bills, saying only that it “is supported by job creators and producers who have made investments based upon the Renewable Fuel Standard and want to build and expand support for this successful policy.”  See it here.


eMailbag on Gerrymandered Legislative Districts

Democrat: The redistricting email shows correlation, but not causation. During that time term limits really began to kick in, which killed the old-line rural and exurban Dems. Also, the country became much more polarized, and via both increased polarization of existing residents and natural sorting, Dems began piling ‎up bigger margins in places like Clayton/UCity while Repubs turned outstate red. At the end of the 2010s and especially by 2014, Missouri Republican voters were sorted much more efficiently than Democrats, who disproportionately lived in 70+ percent Dem districts. Don't get me wrong - redistricting hasn't been good for Dems, but it's not the main culprit here. For Dems to be competitive, we would need an extremely gerrymandered map of grotesquely-shaped districts.

Republican: Let’s not forget that about twenty sitting House Republicans were drawn into districts with their fellow colleagues.  The districts may have been drawn to hurt Republicans, and the plan backfired because of the selflessness of many members.


Today’s Events

From Mary Scruggs’ indispensable events calendar:

Speaker Todd Richardson Golf – Ozark Ridge Golf Course – Poplar Bluff.

Auditor Nicole Galloway Reception – J. Buck’s Clayton – St Louis – 5:30PM..

Rep. Steve Cookson Gravel Bar Cookout –Hwy. 60 & Current River Bridge – Van Buren – 6PM.


$5K+ Contributions

Greitens for Missouri - $5,100 from Fred Schmidt.

Greitens for Missouri - $5,001 from David and Catherine Moore.

Greitens for Missouri - $5,100 from Steelman, Gaunt & Horsefield.

Greitens for Missouri – $100,000 from McKinley Financial Partnership.

Raise Your Hand for Kids - $20,000 from Tyler Nottberg.

With Robin Smith in 2016 Committee - $5,001 Barry Aycock.

Friends of Bob Dixon - $150,000 from Development Systems International.

Citizens for Stephen Webber - $10,000 from CHIPP Political Account.

Greitens for Missouri - $5,001 from KH Holman.

Greitens for Missouri - $10,000 from Brian Hogan.

Greitens for Missouri - $6,500 from Carl Hogan.

Grellner for Sheriff; Citizens to Elect Grellner - $20,000 from Elizabeth Grellner.

Schmitt for Missouri - $10,000 from Express Scripts Inc.

Murray for Missouri - $20,000 from Georgie Murray.

Greitens for Missouri - $25,000 from Frank Kavanaugh.

Greitens for Missouri - $10,000 from David Hogan.

Missourians for John Brunner - $50,000 from Janell Brunner.

Missourians for John Brunner - $50,000 from John Brunner.

Missourians for John Brunner - $10,000 from William Becker.

Missourians for John Brunner - $15,000 from Virginia Becker.

Missourians for John Brunner - $5,001 from Anthony Kelly.

Teresa Hensley for Missouri - $10,000 from Kenneth McClain.

Roberts for St Louis - $10,000 from Eva Frazer.



Happy birthdays to Rep. Sandy Crawford (58), Tom Irwin, Matthew Potter, Steve Kraske, and Kristy Manning.