Wednesday, March 26, 2014

Filing Overview

No Democrat Filed for Auditor

The top of the ticket goes uncontested to incumbent Tom Schweich.  Does he now immediately pivot to 2016?  Why not?  Every dollar he raises should be headed into that campaign account.  He might as well now make Chris Koster (and Catherine Hanaway) the focus of his political actions.

Listen to Roy Temple explain why Dems failed to field a candidate for auditor here.

Biggest Winner? Jason Smith

Congressman Jason Smith is without a primary.  Conventional wisdom is that the first re-election for congressmen is when they’re most vulnerable.  Considering Smith won a special election, and was from a sparsely populated part of the district, this was a crucial cycle. 

And it’s good news for Republicans in that area as it signifies a unified party devoid of personality schisms.

Close Second? Dave Schatz

Hallway denizens were marveling at Rep. Dave Schatz’ remarkable journey to the Senate side of the building.  Yes he faces a Democratic opponent, but it’s nothing serious in that overwhelming Republican district (Senate 26).

The first-day filing, the personal money as a serious ante, the corralling of Franklin County money and support… it was a masterful series of moves.  And some credit belongs to Victory Enterprises.  Joe Lakin, fresh from Rep. John Diehl’s office, worked it along with veteran Dave Hageman.  And an assist to the firm of David Barklage and Robert Knodell.

Uncontested Senators

The pressure’s off these senators… no primary or general election opponent.

Republicans: Will Kraus, Dan Hegeman, Brian Munzlinger, Jay Wasson, Mike Parson, Bob Dixon, and Ron Richard.

Democrats: Maria Chappelle-Nadal.

Dems Minority a Mathematical Certainty

Dems aren’t fielding anyone in Senate 2 where Sen. Scott Rupp is termed, or in Senate 18 where Sen. Dan Brown has a primary.  The math means that even if the ultimate best possible outcome for Dems – winning everywhere they have a candidate (including moon-shots like defeats Sen. Mike Kehoe, or beating Rep. Dave Schatz in Senate 26), they’d still enter 2015 a minority 20-14.

First Dart Toss Senate

My starter guess on the Senate is a wash.  Republicans picking up Senate 10 (Jolie Justus termed; Jeanie Riddle over Ed Schieffer) and Democrats taking Senate 24 (John Lamping retiring; Jill Schupp over Jay Ashcroft).  Senate 22 will be tight, but I’d guess Jeff Roorda holds the McKenna seat for Dems; and Senate 34 could be interesting, but I assume Rob Schaaf holds for Republicans.

Schatz and Hegeman

For those keeping score in the “Utility Wars,” it looks like an even pair. Dan Hegeman has worked for Kansas City Power and Light.  He’ll be naturally sympathetic to the investor-owned utility point of view.  And Rep. Dave Schatz has been vocally skeptical of utilities’ case at times on the Utilities Committee, perhaps more comfortable on “Team Noranda” going forward.  We’ll see….

Uncontested Representatives

Craig Redmon (House 4, R)

Delus Johnson (House 9, R)

Pat Conway (House 10, D)

Galen Higdon (House 11, R)

Nick Marshall (House 13, R)

Noel Shull (House 16, R)

John Rizzo (House 19, D)

Ira Anders (House 21, D)

Judy Morgan (House 24, D)

Jeremy LaFaver (House 25, D)

Gail McCann Beatty (House 26, D)

Mike Cierpiot (House 30, R)

Sheila Solon (House 31, R)

Joe Runions (House 37, D)

T.J. Berry (House 38, R)

Joe Don McGaugh (House 39, R)

Kip Kendrick* (House 45, D) *Chris Kelly (retiring)

Stephen Webber (House 46, D)

Dave Muntzel (House 48, R)

Caleb Jones (House 50, R)

Nathan Beard* (House 52, R) *Stan Cox (termed)

Denny Hoskins* (House 54, R) *There is a Constitution Party opponent.

Rick Brattin ( House 55, R)

David Wood (House 58, R)

Mike Bernskoetter* (House 59, R) *There is a Constitution Party opponent.

Jay Barnes (House 60, R)

Anne Zerr (House 65, R)

Courtney Curtis (House 73, D)

Rochelle Walton Gray (House 75, D)

Jake Hummel* (House 81, D) *There is a Libertarian Party opponent.

Clem Smith (House 85, D)

Stacey Newman (House 87, D)

Marsha Haefner (House 95, R)

Mike Leara* (House 96, R) *There is a Constitution Party opponent.

Sue Allen (House 100, R)

Ron Hicks (House 107, R)

Dennis Broadbooks* (House 110, R) *Tim Jones (termed)

Kevin Engler (House 116, R)

Linda Black (House 117, D)

Keith Frederick (House 121, R)

Steve Lynch (House 122, R)

Diane Franklin (House 123, R)

Rocky Miller (House 124, R)

Mike Kelley (House 127, R)

Sue Entlicher (House 128, R)

Eric Burlison (House 133, R)

Kevin Austin (House 136, R)

Don Phillips (House 138, R)

Tony Dugger (House 141, R)

Robert Ross (House 142, R)

Jeff Pogue (House 143, R)

Donna Lichtenegger (House 146, R)

Todd Richardson (House 152, R)

Steve Cookson* (House 153, R) *There is a Libertarian Party opponent.

Shawn Rhoads (House 154, R)

Scott Fitzpatrick (House 158, R)

Bill Lant (House 159, R)

Bill Reiboldt (House 160, R)

Charlie Davis (House 162, R)

That’s 43 uncontested Republicans and 15 uncontested Democrats.

The result of uncontested legislators will be a freedom to help others instead of worrying about their own race.  For example, look for a $5K check soon from Rep. Jay Barnes to Rep. Noel Torpey

More Money

House Republican Campaign Committee had an event last night raising $200,000.  Half that came from Speaker-designate John Diehl.  His campaign account is over $400K, so there’s more where that came from.

Republicans are not intimidated by the monetary commitments from Attorney General Chris Koster and US Senator Claire McCaskill to help Democratic legislative campaigns.  They expect that their congressional delegation will rally to help HRCC with fundraising as well as their unopposed auditor.

Also, look for a big check soon from Diehl to Gina Jaksetic (House 90; Rick Stream termed). That’s expected to be one of the most competitive races this cycle.

Flimsy 15

In the immediate aftermath of last year’s veto session there was much gnashing of teeth among hard-core conservatives over the defection of fifteen Republican legislators who helped sustain Governor Jay Nixon’s veto of the tax cut bill.  They were dubbed the “flimsy 15.”

Some called for consequences.  For example, Missouri Club for Growth tweeted: “Want to help get rid of Missouri RINOs? Donate $15 today to help us oust the #Flimsy15 http://www.moclubforgrowth.org/about/” 

So how did they fare in filing?  Pretty well.  Only four of the fifteen have a primary challenge.

Nate Walker (House 2) drew a primary challenge from John Bailey an orthopedic surgeon in Kirksville.

Sue Entlicher (House 128) is unopposed in both primary and general.

Paul Fitzwater (House 144) drew a primary challenge from Ron Bohn who ran against Fitzwater in the 2010 primary losing 74%-26%.

Dennis Fowler retired after failed appointment.

Lyndall Fraker (House 137) is unopposed in the primary, but has a Democratic opponent.

Elaine Gannon (House 115) is unopposed in the primary, but has Democratic opponent.

Kent Hampton (House 150) retired.

Jeff Messenger (House 130) drew a primary challenge from Loren Hunt who ran in 2012 losing the three-way primary with 16%.

Lynn Morris (House 140) is unopposed in primary, has Democratic opponent.

Donna Pfautsch (House 33) – unopposed in primary, two Democratic opponents and one Libertarian.

Lyle Rowland (House 155) drew two primary challengers, Jason Frodge, and Mike Lind.  Lind ran against Rowland in 2012 and scored 31%.

Don Phillips (House 138) is unopposed in both primary and general.

Craig Redmon (House 4) is unopposed in both primary and general.

Mike Thomson (House 1) is term limited.

David Wood (House 58) is unopposed in both primary and general.

House 149

In the Hodges’ district, Democrat Diedra Ashley Freeman is expected to be the favored candidate, as Morgan Copeland Nesselrodt is said to be withdrawing.  And on the Republican side Neal Boyd filed to run, but Don Rone is the favorite there.

Bob Johnson in House 35

Former Rep. Bob Johnson filed to run for House 34.  Rep. Jeff Grisamore is termed.  There’s a three-way primary to succeed him.  But for some, Johnson’s entry is interesting for 2018. Johnson has four more years left under term limits.  That means if he wins this seat, he’d term out in synch with the opening of that senate seat, Senate 8 (Will Kraus).

Of course there’s no shortage of other potential candidates there – Reps. Mike Cierpiot or Sheila Solon for example.

Former Rep. Bryan Pratt?  Some say he’s considering Blue Springs mayor in the future…

Jay is Not Andy – of Librarygate Fame

Jay Ashcroft, son of the former governor, senator and U.S. attorney general, filed for Senate 24.  He is NOT the son who figured in one of the few “scandals” of the Ashcroft administration, “Librarygate," so dubbed by Post-Dispatch columnist Bill McClellan.

Back in 1990, then-Governor John Ashcroft had to apologize for his wife, Janet, rousting state workers to have the Missouri State Library opened on a Sunday – Mother’s Day – so their other son, Andy, could complete his unfinished homework for a paper on Elizabethan history. See the story here.

Mrs. Ashcroft’s high-handed behavior to bail out her son took the then-state librarian away from her visiting family on Mother’s Day so she could wait on the first lady and the seventh-grader scrounging the state-owned history books after-hours on a weekend. The episode blew up into a national story, fanned by the General Assembly's then-Democratic majority, of a thoughtless first family who ruined Mother’s Day for a state worker.

The kicker came after Ashcroft publicly apologized, then in effect shifted blame to his wife, saying, “I was in church with my other son” at the time of the library episode. That churchgoing son would be Jay Ashcroft…

And

Long expected, Sen. Scott Rupp was appointed to the Public Service Commission.

Sneakers Day

Today is American Cancer Society’s “Suits & Sneakers Day @ The Capitol.”  I’ll be in my sneakers…

Fundraising Events

From Mary Scruggs’ indispensable events calendar:

Rice Day at Sen. Wayne Wallingford’s office, Rm. 225 – 11a.m. - 1:30 p.m.

Lobbyist Registrations

From the Gate Way Group website:

Mark J Bruns and Jim Foley added Nurtur Health Inc.

Randy Scherr and Brian Bernskoetter deleted City of Clarkson Valley, City of Florissant, and City of Branson.

Barbara York added Top of the Ozarks Kennel Club, York Trucking LLC, T.H.E. Professional Pet Breeders, and Missouri Animal Husbandry Association.

$5K+ Contributions

Hanaway for Governor - $20,000 from D John Sauer.

Citizens for Steve Stenger - $10,000 from UA Political Education Committee.

Citizens for Educational and Community Change - $7,000 from James Clark.

Freedom Incorporated - $10,000 from Progress KC Committee.

Birthdays

Happy birthday to Missouri Coalition for the Environment’s Ed Smith.