Monday, September 9, 2013

Notes for the coming week…

Tuesday is D-Day?

Potentially the most important day of the veto session will be tomorrow (Tuesday) when House Republicans and Senate Republican separately caucus.  This is when the supermajorities will hash through the bills and hear who wants (and doesn’t want) to attempt overrides.  The House is expected to let its members “sleep on it” and then “re-caucus” Wednesday morning for a final decision on which bills to bring for a vote.  Still Tuesday night we may have some indications if any bills are being abandoned.

General Vibe

The general vibe is still to see most vetoed House bills brought up for a vote.  The Senate is expected to be more selective.  However, I am told that they will decide their agenda independent from the House. 

Session in a Day

It looks like a one-day session. But a perhaps a very long day.  Rep. Denny Hoskins will get sworn in as the new speaker pro tem when the legislature convenes at noon on Wednesday.   Read in messages – the vetoes from the governor – and then work through presumably in order (by bill number).  Anything that’s overridden from one chamber will then move to the next.

List of Bills

Remember the MOScout Cheat Sheet on vetoed bills is in the Special Reports section.  See it here.  It has the vote totals from regular session, and votes by political party, as well as links to the governor’s veto letters and listing of who testified in favor and against in committee.

Speaker-Designate Election

It’s expected that at the conclusion of this long day (Wednesday), the House Republican will caucus (upon adjournment) and have their speaker-designate election.

At least part of the motivation for having the election then, instead of Tuesday night, is just in case anyone has their ego bruised with the election result, the override votes aren’t screwed up!

Where’s the NRA?

In the absence of an official statement, the National Rifle Association’s position on HB 436 is subject to lots of different opinions.  It’s like a game of telephone and different people are hearing different messages.

As I mentioned last week, PoliticMO’s Eli Yokley wrote that an NRA lobbyist said that “they do not support the bill.”   Now over the weekend, I was told that the speaker spoke to an NRA official who said they are “100% neutral” on the bill.  However I also have a very credible Democratic source who claims that the NRA is working with the governor’s office to kill the bill.

Would there be any that the NRA won’t just issue a statement?

One theory is that they recognize that the bill represents an overreach with potential for backlash, however their members – and the grassroots rural Republicans – overwhelmingly support the bill.  A public statement of moderation might make them look moderate.  That’s a no-no in this political environment.

Bits About House Bills

The House in reaching for a “record-breaking” number of overrides will go after a few of the governor’s budget line item vetoes.

HB 110 – which was Jason Smith’s change to make the lieutenant governor position vacancy filled by special election – will likely not be brought up for a vote.

HB 253 – tax cut bill – Expect a vote, and the override to fall short by half-dozen votes.  Overriders will shake fists in air and vow to return in January…

HB 278 – Rep. Rick Brattin’s save Christmas bill has one of the best chances of override.  Next year let’s make sure Missourians have the right to eat apple pie…

HB301 – the sex offender registry bill - Over the weekend AP’s David Lieb had a nice article which revealed that the prime mover behind this piece of “reform” legislation was a big donor.   Lobbyist Neal English did an impressive job keeping the focus on the reform, but Lieb quotes Senate Floor Leader Ron Richard getting squishy.  Read it here.

HB 329 (Rep. Tony Dugger’s credit union bill) and HB 1035 (Rep. Mike Kelley’s political subdivisions bill) are both bills that House Republicans think they can get an override on.  Both passed with large Dems support in regular session.

HB 339 – what Republicans call “no pay, no play,” meaning if you don’t have car insurance then you forfeit your rights of tort law.  I think Republicans are keeping this on the radar to distract MATA from HB 650…

HB 650 – the Doe Run bill.  Really the most fascinating of all the votes.  It’s said that labor is pushing hard, and those crossover Dem votes will compensate for the “MATA Republicans.”  Considering it only passed with 94 votes during regular session, the fact that this is even a possible override is really remarkable.

HB 611 – unemployment compensation – The Dem votes of regular session have all melted away.  So it’s no longer in play.

Bits on Senate Bills

If the Senate is planning to vote on their overrides without coordination with the House, they may send over pieces of legislation which are DOA in the House.

Those would be the anti-labor SB 28 (re-defines employee misconduct), SB 29 (paycheck protection), and SB 34 (workers comp).

Some bills are effectively moot now like SB 350 (renter’s tax credit, and SB 182 (Kehoe’s motor tax), SB 60 (covered by HB 133), and SB 73 (language conflicts with other bills passed).

One assumes that SB 240, the gas ISRS, is now a non-starter.

The Sen. Brian Nieves bills SB 265 (Agenda 21) and SB 267 (Civil Liberties Defense Act) may well move over to the House.

Sen. Maria Chappelle-Nadal’s SB170 (school boards voting by video conferencing) has a shot to be brought up.

I would guess that Sen. Wayne Wallingford would sink SB 342 in caucus as it adds an exemption to Cape Girardeau that he might oppose.

Commentaries on Veto Session

MOWonk gets wonky… talking about policy paradoxes.  Read it here.

PoliticMO notes a dozen House bills up for override here.

AP (Thanks to peerless John Combest) gives a rundown here.

Help Wanted

Budget and Fiscal IT Analyst will “work with House Appropriation Committee staff and Senate Budget Committee staff to provide access to BRASS throughout the year. Work with House and Senate staff to respond to both member and constituency data requests from both BRASS and SAM II. Create processes that enhance the usability and transparency of BRASS and SAM II. Provide extra data entry help to Senate and House appropriations during critical periods. Work with House Human Resources, Senate Accounting, and Legislative Oversight to provide SAM II data requests and training. Work with Legislative Oversight to bring BRASS and SAM II tools to bear on the General Assembly's fiscal note process.”  See ad here.

$5K+Contributions

Committee for Research Treatments and Cures - $100,000 from Hallmark Global Services LLC.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc. - $6,250 from UGas.

Committee for Research Treatments and Cures - $100,000 from John Sherman.

Notes on Money: John Sherman is on the board of the Kauffman Foundation.  See bio here

And the Hallmark contribution follows Donald Hall’s personal contribution of the same amount last week.

Lobbyist Registrations

From the Pelopidas website:

Chris Guinther deleted Missouri National Education Association.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to former senators Jack Goodman (40) and Delbert Scott (64), lobbyist Jorgen Schlemeier (48), former speaker Rod Jetton (46), and MRL’s Dave Plemmons.

 

Congratulations

To Minority Leader Jake Hummel and Sarah Wood Martin on their engagement. (Tres Mazel Tov!)