Monday, March 19, 2018

Follow-Up on MOScout Poll

The weekly poll stunned more than a few observers.  See the poll here.

It showed incumbent Sen. Paul Wieland trailing Democrat Robert Butler.  Last cycle Butler ran for House, losing to Rep. Rob Vescovo by 20 points.  Without talking down Butler, this poll is not really about him, and clearly means that Republicans are staring down trouble in Jefferson County.

One Dem emailed me on Saturday: Dems win four House seats in Jefferson County by that poll…

 

Roe in NYTimes

Republican consultant Jeff Roe had an op/ed in the Sunday New York Times yesterday.  See it here.

Pull Quote: [I]t has become media gospel that the president is toxic and that Republican candidates will have to distance themselves from him. That narrative is wrong… While some Republican candidates, in swing seats, may benefit from creating distance from Mr. Trump, a strategic retreat will work only in rare instances. The myth that midterms are decided by swing voters ignores the prevailing reality that large midterm electoral shifts are driven by shifts in base motivation.

If you are a Republican on the ballot, you are in the same boat as Mr. Trump, whether you like it or not. If enough people jump ship, generic party identification will suffer, and everyone will sink. In other words, if enough Republicans run from their leader, the Republican brand will be so diminished as to produce historic defeats up and down the ballot… No, you don’t have to support the president’s tweet storms. But you do have to defend his policy accomplishments…

Republicans have to learn to do what Democrats failed to do: run campaigns as the governing party. Half the consulting class on our side has spent half of their careers, if not more, running opposition campaigns. They have had the tailwind of resentment and grievance fueling popular anger. Now they have to flip the script. They have to learn to highlight accomplishments like tax reform, job creation and regulatory relief…

 

We Are Missouri Hiring Up

Again in the large contribution listing today, you’ll find more money and in-kind donations going into the We Are Missouri campaign committee.  By my estimate over $6.5 million has been raised by We Are Missouri.

And now over at HiredUp Missouri, you can see they’re starting to staff up.  They’re not waiting to find out for certain that the House is moving the issue to the August ballot, they’re getting their team in place.

Job Listings

Students and Young Adults Outreach Director, No on Prop A

Research and Rapid Response Director, No on Prop A

Regional Communications Directors, No on Prop A

Deputy Communications Director, No on Prop A

Deputy Campaign Manager, No On Prop A

Data Director, No on Prop A

Coalition Director, No on Prop A

Operations Director, No on Prop A

 

Meanwhile in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada…

Politico has an article about Dem presidential hopefuls staffing up already.  See it here.

Pull Quote: The hiring stage of the 2020 shadow primary is underway… The hires are never explicitly advertised or designed to be about 2020. But the behind-the-scenes shuffle is a long-overdue stage in the traditional precampaign scramble… Jason Kander, the former Missouri secretary of state who has hinted he might run, recently began advertising for a “Communications Director and Chief Speechwriter” to help guide strategy for both his voting rights group and Kander himself, according to a copy of the listing. Paying up to $120,000 per year… Kander, whose Let America Vote group has funded his unparalleled travel around the country in recent months, sent his two-time campaign manager, Abe Rakov, and his press secretary, Austin Laufersweiler, to work in Iowa in 2017, building up his presence in the first state in Democrats’ primary process. Now Brendan Summers, a top organizing official for the group and a senior alum of Sanders’ 2016 campaign, is in the process of moving to New Hampshire, the No. 2 state. That just adds to the tally: Kander's national field director, Beth Tyson, and digital director, Suzy Smith, are settling into their new home — Nevada, the third.

 

McCaskill Files

Put away the rumors, folks…. Senator Claire McCaskill filed for re-election on Friday.

 

New Candidate Filings

Pat Williams filed to run for House 33 as a Democrat.

David Beckham filed to run for House 41 as a Democrat.

Constance Garcia filed to run for House 109 as a Republican.

Tim Stefanski filed to run for House 111 as a Democrat.

Jack Clemans filed to run for House 155 as a Republican.

Karen Echols filed to run for House 157 as a Republican.

 

New Committees

Andrew Young formed a candidate committee (Friends To Elect Young) to run St. Francois County Clerk as a Democrat.

Shanna Tilley formed a candidate committee (Committee To Elect Shanna Tilley) to run for Taney County Clerk as a Republican.

Nathan Williams formed a candidate committee (Committee To Elect Nathan Williams) to run for House 123 as a Republican.

 

This Week’s Events

Monday

Rep. Paul Curtman for Auditor fundraiser at Shakespeare's Pizza, Columbia, MO – 6:30PM.

Tuesday

Alderwoman Cara Spencer fundraiser at Treffpunkt, St. Louis, MO – 5:30PM.

Wednesday

Sen. Paul Wieland Re-Election Announcement at Weber’s Front Row, Arnold, MO – 4PM.

Campaign Kickoff for Doug Clemens (Dem, House 72) at 7224 Pershing Ave, University City, MO- 5:30PM.

Nicole Galloway fundraiser at home of Dr. Laura Neff-Rogers and Wes Rogers, Kansas City – 5:30PM.

Legislative Update with Rep. Shamed Dogan, hosted by Americans For Prosperity at 44 Meramec Valley Plaza – 6PM.

Thursday

Ryan Dillon (Dem, Senate 16) for State Senate – Lew’s Grill and Bar, Kansas City – 5:30PM

Sen. Scott Sifton Fundraising Reception at Cyrano's Cafe & Wine Bar, Webster Grove – 5:30PM.

Adam Schnelting (GOP, House 104) Campaign Kick-off at Vette’s Restaurant & Lounge, St. Peters MO – 6PM.

Matt Sain (Dem, House 14) Campaign Kick-Off at Eagles Nest Clubhouse, 3502 NW Platte Brooke Drive – 6PM.

Genevieve Steidtmann (Dem, House 101) Town Hall at Daniel Boone Branch Library, Ellisville,  MO – 7PM.

Paul Berry III for St. Louis County Executive Kickoff Event at Drury Plaza Hotel in Chesterfield – 7PM.

Friday

Bill Heisse (GOP, House 92) Trivia Night at The Christy Banquet Center, St. Louis – 6:30PM.

Sunday

Stephanie Morrell (Boone County Associate Judge, Division 11) Campaign Kickoff at Shakespeare's Pizza, Columbia MO – 1PM.

 

Lobbyists Registrations

Julian Malasi deleted Mallinckrodt Pharmaceuticals.

 

$5K+ Contributions

We Are Missouri - $10,000 from Utility Workers Union of America Local 335.

We Are Missouri - $93,360 from Missouri AFL-CIO General Fund.

We Are Missouri - $258,720 from Missouri AFL-CIO General Fund.

Mantovani for STL - $10,000 from Barrett Station Partners LLC.

Citizens for Good Government - $5,808 from RFPD Union Shop Fund.

Professional Fire Fighters of Eastern Missouri 2665 PAC Fund - $9,204 from Professional Firefighters of Eastern Missouri.

We Are Missouri - $10,000 from Guarantee Electrical Construction.

New Approach Missouri - $5,001 from Ben Sapp.

 

Birthdays

Happy birthday to Kim Becking.